College Basketball Chronotope

The Crimson Quarry rocks! (Har!)

2011-08-12T11:14:00.000-07:00

I won't be exactly discontinuing this blog, but the laudable John M. over at The Crimson Quarry has asked me to pitch in with the occasional post. I've been a fan of The Crimson Quarry since it launched, and my first headlines post is up over there. I'll still keep this blog open for my most wonkiest or vehement posts, but I will be directing the greater part of my blogging energy over there.

Arguments about Stuff and Nonsense

2011-07-29T07:34:00.000-07:00

Speaking of nonsense, is the #1-rated (pro-style)QB in the nation coming to Indiana? I hope a solid string of O-Line recruits is also in the offing. Still, that's some great nonsense!

Another less-great nonsense thing I've seen floating around lately is that the US Women "choked" away the World Cup. I'm not sure that fits with my view of "choke" so much as a missed opportunity. Given the US WWC team barely got into the tourney at all, barely got past the first round, and never had more than a one-goal lead on the Japanese, it's hard to justify the term "choke" with this case. The US & the Japanese got hot at the right times, and while the US played better, the PKs just fell the other way. I think maybe the US team let expectations be set rather high when it comes to PKs due to their ice-veined finishes against Brazil. From a lifetime of watching (and occasionally playing) soccer, let me tell you that nothing other than PKs is a clearer distillation in sports of the metaphor "sometimes you eat th' b'ar, sometimes the b'ar eats you."

Anyway, at some point I hope to put together an Indiana men's soccer preview. I need motivation, tho, as family, summer reading, and job searches have kept me pretty busy.

Some college basketball stuff is happening, too. Bright young light Drew Cannon over Basketball Prospectus posted an interesting top 100 NCAA players list, and then was part of a wrap-up discussion with regulars Pelton & Gasaway and newbie Todd Dybas. This is on the heels of his "what to expect from freshmen" article from which I've been doing some number-crunching of my own - post upcoming! What I want to nitpick is his picks for all-conference, especially the Big Ten.

First team: Draymond Green, Robbie Hummel, Jared Sullinger, Jordan Taylor, Deshaun Thomas
Second: William Buford, Tim Hardaway, Trevor Mbakwe, John Shurna, Christian Watford
Third: Melsahn Basabe, Aaron Craft, Jordan Morgan, Brandon Paul, Brandon Wood

I think Green, Hummel, Sullinger, and Taylor are all smart picks. DeShaun Thomas I shake my head at a little bit - not that he doesn't have potential, but next season the ball goes first into Sullinger's hands in the paint. Thomas will get PT 'cause he can shoot the three, but he had a hard time carving out minutes last season when there wasn't another true 4 on the team, and now he'll have to compete with McDonald's All-American Amir Williams and talented transfer Evan Ravenel for minutes. I just think Thomas won't be featured as much as, say, William Buford, who I think should be on the first team.

The second team I have no problem with except for Indiana's own Christian Watford. Watford should benefit from Cody Zeller's presence and from hopefully being healthy, but I don't foresee his two-point shooting percentage or his block, steal, or offensive rebound rates rising enough to boost him to the top of the league. He should be a solid scorer for the Hoosiers next season, but top-ten? I'm dubious. I'd boost Basabe and probably the unmentioned Lewis Jackson onto the second team before Watford.

For the Third team I won't debate Brandon Wood (defensible, but wouldn't be my pick) but I will debate the inclusion of Jordan Morgan and Brandon Paul. I cannot see including Jordan Morgan over Ralph Sampson, Luka Mirkovic, and what would be my pick- Delvon Roe. Furthermore, Morgan can obviously rebound, but I'm pretty interested to see what kind of shooting numbers he can post without Morris breaking down the defense to feed him a diet of open lay-ups. And of starting centers, only the graduated Jarryd Cole & Andrew Jones had lower shot-block percentages than Morgan. Brandon Paul could be worthy of all-conference selection, I suppose, but it just seems unlikely. He's always been a gunner, and next season I expect his assists to go up, sure, but I also expect his turnovers to rise and his shooting percentage to fall. I would suspect a sophomore like Josh Gasser or true points like Tim Frazier or Bryce Cartwright would do better than Paul both statistically and in efficiency terms - even if their teams are less talented overall. And for that matter, Verdell Jones did better in my per-possession efficiency ranking than Paul last season, despite playing the bailout role and struggling through injuries.

B1G basketball 2011 final efficiency stats

2011-07-21T13:40:00.000-07:00

I know, they're crazy late. Apologies, but I still think it might be interesting to consider the player performances now that the sturm und drang of the conference season has settled.

Essentially, there was a pretty clear top three with Jordan Taylor, Draymond Green, and JaJuan Johnson, with probably Jordan Taylor with the slightest of edges over the other two. Jared Sullinger's play declined in the second of the season, but he still finished a very solid fourth ahead of Trevor Mbakwe, Jeff Brooks, and Melsahn Basabe. Anyway, the final stats and the school-by-school notes are now available.

In short, the Big Ten will get a lot of top players back next season, but a lot of the 2nd and 3rd best players have moved on. It's hard to envision that the conference will be quite as tough as it has been the couple years, but it won't be too down either.

I'll have number crunching on Nebraska up before too long, to see how the Huskers' 2011 conference season compares to the rest of the returning B1G players.

The Bright side of the US WWC

2011-07-18T06:50:00.000-07:00

First of all, hats off to the Japanese- an amazing tournament for them even as they came in as a sleeper pick, they showed tremendous ability in taking down favorites and hosts Germany, and outright beating down the third-place Swedes (who were the only team to outright beat the US), and tying the US twice to send it to PKs. Great heart, great ability, and surely a great salve for the nation recovering from tragedy. Btw, was anyone else touched that before each and every game they displayed that banner thanking the friends around the world for their support? Nicely done, there.

And for the US... yes, the penalty kick result was disappointing, and the fact that the US was minutes away from lifting the trophy (twice!) has to be heartbreaking for the members of the Women's team. It's as if all of the karma that USA spent in the Brazil game (late comeback won on PKs despite being outplayed) and against France (generally being out-passed and out-shot yet just not quite finishing - the sound of the ball hitting the pipes was less pleasing this time around) came back around against the Japanese. You then throw in the fact that one of the US' top offensive threats (Lauren Cheney) who had scored or assisted in four of the previous five games was almost instantly hobbled and eventually had to come off. And no discredit to the Japanese, but it's hard to look at the game or break down the stats and not think that the US was the better team that should have won. However, I would suggest that this was a tremendous success for both Women's Soccer and the US team in general. I won't say much about the Women's Soccer aspect (Hirshey has that covered), but it was a great tournament and a great final showed that soccer can about drama and scoring goals - this was certainly a far more exhilarating tournament than the 1999 World Cup where the US almost ran out of gas. After Michelle Akers went out in 1999, it was pretty clear that the Chinese were every bit as good and possibly better than the US. That wasn't the case here with the US after the injured Cheney was subbed out at halftime.

And the US doesn't quit, after dominating the first 30 minutes, and then reasserting itself after the loss of Cheney, it could've folded when Japan first tied it up. The US looked the better team through the OT, and still, it continued to look like it could pull off an outright win with late chances from Wambach and when Morgan was taken down late on her way to what seemed to be a winning goal, it was the 121st minute? The US team is making a name for itself with its level of endurance. Also, even though Wambach may have been the only player with the presence of mind to congratulate the victors, the US generally went out with class - the Japanese may have held them off for the PKs, but the US made them get issued first ever Women's World Cup red card prevent a winning goal - smart, but hardly laudable.

And finally, let's not forget that the US came in rather shakily - having to beat Italy in a playoff to assure its place in the WWC. And then, they looked like they might be heading for disappointment when they couldn't quite tie Sweden and faced Brazil in the first round. The US' thrilling success against Brazil and France made the nation sit up and notice the WWC again, and playing like the best team in the final of the WWC has re-established the Americans' international reputation as the heavyweight in Women's Soccer again. And furthermore, although we were already well aware of Wambach and Solo's dominance at their positions (I would submit them for all-time all-world), it was a coming-out party for Alex Morgan, who came into the Cup with a mere 16 caps, and just got better as the games went on. The US was familiarized with both domestic and international stars, which is great for the struggling Women's Professional League. Although I think Morgan (and perhaps Rapinoe) will be the US's next breakthrough marketing star, for the team it's good that the potent Lauren Cheney has also come into her own as a reliable creator, and best of all...

the Olympics await next summer!

Quick July Flame links

2011-07-15T08:43:00.000-07:00

Since the Women's World Cup game on Sunday is the big to-do, if you want to listen to a couple of analysts with some humorous insights about the semi-final games, here's ESPN's Off the Ball podcast

Drew Cannon over at Basketball Prospectus talks about predicting freshmen performance. There's nothing shocking here, but it's a nice review to back up the truisms like "bigs develop more slowly" or "too much is expected of incoming freshmen."

In Big Ten basketball news, promising incoming Junior College player and interesting storyline Anthony Hubbard has left Iowa due to "homesickness." Iowa still has four starters coming back as well as incoming frosh Josh Oglesby & Gabe Olaseni who should contribute off the bench, and Aaron White might be a sleeper, but now the Hawkeyes are really going to need improvement out of Devyn Marble if they hope to get to the postseason. And uh, also some combination of Archie and Brommer to hold down the center-spot, which may be a much taller order.

US Women triumph, face Japan in finals

2011-07-14T08:36:00.000-07:00

Following the American women has been amazing this year. Just a true enjoyment with a lot of great storylines. At any level of Men's or Women's soccer, I have only once seen as stellar a cross as Megan Rapinoe swung into Wambach in the 122nd minute against Brazil (and that was Virginia's Clint Mathis against Indiana in the 1994 College Cup). And I've never seen that play resolved so dramatically with such high stakes. And then against France, in the World Cup semi-final, coach Pia Sundhage makes two second-half substitutions that pay off brilliantly and change the entire complexion of the match. Also, a true rarity to see subs have such an effect in a world cup game.

I did get to watch the second half versus France on my lunch break at work, so I can make some observations. Despite each having a couple of misplays, Wambach and Solo are all-world stalwarts. They've carried the US, and give the other players a wide margin for error. I thought Rapinoe & Morgan should've come in earlier, but holding them off until France ran themselves down a little (and had seemingly gained control of the match after tying it up) ended up working out incredibly well. The game swung cleanly to the US after Rapinoe came in and was effectively over after Morgan's counter-attack (sprung from a slightly deflected pass from Rapinoe), and France could do little to get themselves back into the match in the last 10 minutes.

Cheney had a nice game with a classy finish on the first goal, and beautiful bender of a corner to Wambach on the Game-winning corner. Also, she seemed to play a lot better off of Rapinoe than Lloyd, but maybe Morgan & Rapinoe's speed just gave her more room to work with.

Megan Rapinoe did the tough work of calming down the US midfield and zipping past the French defenders on counter-attacks, stretching out the field and giving the US room to work with. Her pairing with the shifted Cheney makes for a very effective midfield, but her fresh legs helped her also retain possession against the French, who had run circles around Carli Lloyd, et al. I saw one hustle play where she flew to an overplayed ball and knocked it down to a teammate that otherwise would've been a French throw-in.

Alex Morgan looked big, fast, and physical against the French. A bit like Abby Wambach in 2007. That said, she could've had a hat-trick with a bit of luck in the second half with a bit more placement on that follow (where I think she was ruled offside) and then simply a great save from the keeper nullified that beauty of header from Wambach to free her. She redeemed herself with the perfect timing and placement on that chip to the far corner. With all of the praise for Wambach & recriminations for the French goalie, the one thing I think everyone missed in Wambach's game-winning header was Alex Morgan busting free from her defenders and "posting up" the goalie, both slowing keeper down and blocking her vision of the cross until it was too late. A perfect intangible assist on the play.

The US will have another tough match-up with international darlings Japan, who are giving a nation recovering from incredible tragedy a great feel-good story. Even more problematic is Japan's ball-control style which is not dissimilar from the French style that gave the US fits for the majority of the match. On the other foot, Japan is likely to have even more trouble covering the US air attacks, but if they can shut down the flanks... well, it will be an interesting match.

Go USA!!!

Chart of the Day

2011-07-01T07:25:00.001-07:00

This one is about David Stern's new plan for player salaries, via an interesting article by Tom Ziller.

Women's World Cup! US wins early

2011-06-29T06:52:00.000-07:00

How on Earth did I miss that this was starting?

The US women beat down a surprisingly sharp-passing North Korea, 2-0. This women's squad appears to be a much better spread-it-around-on-the-ground-attacking side than the disappointing version that showed up 8 years ago that just booted the ball up to Abby Wambach every time. Wambach, along with the always-entertaining Hope Solo in goal, is back,but outside of Heather Mitts there aren't many well-known names here. I'm glad to see old guard members Carli Lloyd & Shannon Boxx playing, as well as the really-old-guard Christie Rampone (the oldest member and a pine-sitter in 1999). However, the toothsome Alex Morgan looks like she has the skills and the attacking attitude make opponents pay for concentrating too much on Wambach. Morgan is the youngest member of the squad, and was born when I was in high school. Amazing how one gets so old so fast. Point being, though, that she only has 16 caps and 7 goals to her credit to date. It's a young squad for the US overall, even while Wambach, Rampone (over 200!), Lloyd, Boxx, and Heather O'Reilly have over 100 caps, only Solo, Amy Rodriguez, and Rachel Buehler (who scored against NK) have over 50 caps. Still you put those players together with Morgan & Lauren Cheney up front and Megan Rapinoe's moxie in the midfield, and you've got a pretty good shot at the Championship. The US has a tough first group, but it would seem like a safe bet to think that they'll be in the round of 16 without too much worry.

In the elimination rounds, however, Brazil still looks pretty awesome again, and like their star Marta they always play seemingly tougher than the Men's side, who like most men's teams, tumbles every time a stiff wind blows and then complains passionately to the refs and cameras. And host Germany, with star Birgit Prinz and young talent Alxendra Popp, has got to be the odds-on favorites, although I'm skeptical that the defending champs will actually win this one - I thought they were a bit lucky to win the last one and karma has a way of coming around. Norway and France could well get hot and win it all whereas Japan, England, and Sweden are probably more in the longshot category.

Go USA!

Early Top 50 (55) + autobids

2011-06-15T07:45:00.000-07:00

I've been chewing on this, but let's just get it out the way. I think this will be the 2012 field of 68 for the NCAA men's basketball tournament. Just a side note, the first four out included Indiana, but also Arkansas & South Carolina from the SEC as well as Georgetown. I also think any of the top three are defensible #1's. I'm not picking a Calipari team #1 until he earns it (every year- so much talent, so much turnover), but I do think "Jorts" big presence will be missed in the paint for UK. I love UNC's frontcourt, but I'm very dubious about their backcourt being championship caliber. Ohio State loses some great shooting (Diebler) and defense (Lighty & Lauderdale) to graduation, but picks up a great recruiting class including two McDonald All-Americans who probably won't even start, and adds talented transfer Evan Ravenel to boot. Ultimately, I like balanced teams, and OSU has the best balance of any of the top three.

1. Ohio State (Big Ten)
2. North Carolina (ACC)
3. Kentucky (SEC)
4. Syracuse (Big East)
5. Duke
6. Connecticut
7. Vanderbilt
8. Pittsburgh
9. Purdue
10. Kansas (Big XII)
11. Louisville
12. Temple (A-10)
13. Alabama
14. Texas A&M
15. West Virginia
16. Wichita State (MVC)
17. Missouri
18. UNLV (MWC)
19. Washington (Pac-10)
20. Wisconsin
21. Gonzaga (WCC)
22. Memphis (C-USA)
23. Michigan State
24. Clemson
25. Belmont (A-Sun)
26. Villanova
27. Arizona
28. Xavier
29. Cincinnati
30. UCLA
31. Saint Mary's
32. New Mexico
33. Florida
34. Baylor
35. Creighton
36. Texas
37. Florida State
38. Iona (MAAC)
39. Kent State (MAC)
40. Drexel (CAA)
41. Indiana State
42. Miami (FL)
43. Detroit (HOR)
44. Harvard (Ivy)
45. Oregon
46. Northwestern
47. Marquette
48. Virginia Tech
49. George Mason
50. Butler
51. Mississippi
52. Iowa State
53. Marshall
54. Nevada (WAC)
55. California

Auto [13]
Boston University (AmEast)
Bucknell (Patriot)
Coppin State (MEAC)
Davidson (SoCon)
Florida Atlantic (Sun Belt)
Long Beach State (Big West)
Mississippi Valley State (SWAC)
Montana (Big Sky)
Austin Peay (OVC)
Oral Roberts (Summitt)
Robert Morris (NEC)
UNC-Asheville (Big South)
Sam Houston State (Southland)

Looking forward to next year

2011-04-19T12:16:00.000-07:00

Maybe I'm an ever-naive optimist, but I am really looking forward to next year's Hoosiers. The Men's soccer team picked another fine recruiting class and a solid transfer in AJ Corrado. And the men's basketball team looks to make a substantial jump forward, even if Maurice Creek is still not 100% in coming back (and I would be surprised if he was).

Soccer:
Yeagley loses a few fine players, but Will Bruin was a man among boys out there, and it'll be hard to replace his scoring. I was not as enamored of Rich Balchan as the MLS seems to be, but he and Andy Adlard were fine players who will also be missed. Btw, IU alumni could totally field a complete team from their MLS players alone this year- which is pretty impressive. Anyway, there will have to be some contributions from the eight-man recruiting class, but I also think Corrado, redshirt Kerel Bradford, Matt McKain, and Joe Tolen are ready for expanded opportunity. One thing that would really help is if goalkeeper Luis Soffner just started being more consistent in his performance - he really needs excellent to put out fires before they start, because I don't trust his instincts once the offense gets the ball in scoring position.

Basketball:
Crean has done the hardest thing of all, which is to reinvigorate in-state recruiting while putting lousy teams on the floor. To be fair, IU was not that bad last year, and lower efficiencies from KenPom are mostly a result of facing a really tough Big Ten. IU was clearly a better team than either one of the previous two incarnations, which made the 3-15 Big Ten record all the more frustrating. I'll grant you, it's hard to look good defensively when Jordan Taylor is hitting a series of fall-down threes or OSU is hitting on all cylinders. It's also hard to look good when you don't get out and get a hand in the shooter's face. Still, I actually like the Jones-Hulls backcourt for next year, and if Oladipo and Sheehey can settle down their defensive lapses and turnover problems, they'll actually be pretty good players that should be able to replace anything we lost from Rivers' graduation. Throw in one of the top big recruits in the country to complement Pritchard and Watford, and the Hoosiers should be ready for a significant jump forward. What does that translate in terms of wins-losses, especially given that Taylor & Sullinger are returning? My guess is conference record of 7 or 8 wins (where I thought they'd be this last season), and an overall record just north of .500, but it's really hard to predict this far out. They'll be better, tho, which will be a welcome sight.

Insult added to injury

2011-03-11T10:08:00.000-08:00

At least it was the last IU loss I'll have to watch for the season. And to indulge in a tiresome aside - despite some defensive posturing by PSU bloggers about whiny IU fans- it is quite ridiculous that PSU didn't get whistled for a single foul for over 22 minutes. I'd say the Hoosiers didn't test them at drawing fouls, but it also shouldn't matter when David Jackson windmill-smacks Christian Watford in the mouth mere feet from Ed Hightower (at the 11:50 mark of the second half). Did the cost the Hoosiers the game? That's pretty unlikely, but it also didn't help IU's chances when Sheehey & Elston make clean plays or even made mere defensive feints and got whistled. Next season, Crean needs to keep the fouling in the preseason to a minimum, or this will be the result in every B1G roadgame.

I won't get all boilermaker and emotionally insist that the refs were out to get the Hoosiers in order to preserve a possible at-large bid for the conference. No, I believe that this was a game where the perception of IU as a hacktastic club and resultant lack of respect from Hightower, et al, manifested itself in a series of whistles that looked like jobbery, but wasn't. IU shouldn't have won because of their lack of offense and on defense they couldn't keep the Lions off the boards and had no answer for Jeff Brooks.

The 22 minutes without a foul... (Well, 25 really, in terms of meaningful whistles- an over-the-back at the end of the game when the IU player had possession doesn't matter- an over-the-back call where a player did have position would've helped earlier in the half) was extremely frustrating and disappointing to watch as a fan. It was something that was easy to key in on as "blatantly unfair" when your team is letting you down. It was insult added to injury.

What next?

2011-03-08T18:54:00.000-08:00

I was really hoping IU would spring an upset over Wisconsin to not totally slide into the end of the season - but Jordan Taylor was unbelievable- the last time I saw put on performance like that on against IU, it was Chauncey Billups drilling contested threes, and even that wasn't as impressive as Taylor's performance.

Now, to build any momentum, Indiana has to win some games in the Big Ten tourney. I will say this: even though IU hasn't put much together in the last few games, they have probably the most favorable schedule to make some noise they could've reasonably asked for. Still, the Big Ten is tough this season, and there were only a few bounces of the ball that could've made it seem like the Hoosiers were progressing (which they are - ever so slightly) instead of regressing (which they are in terms of conference W-L).

Called it... pretty much... maybe

2011-03-04T12:37:00.000-08:00

Here' a retrospective on the offseason "BFD?" notes - Overall, I definitely over-rated MSU without Chris Allen (without foreknowledge of the losses of Lucious & Byrd), I slightly under-rated Purdue without Rob Hummel (we'll see how by much very soon), and I nailed how Northwestern would fare without Kevin Coble.

Coble's loss- This is exactly what I thought would happen. The offense suffered when Shurna was hurt (1.06 this season, down from 1.09), and the defense remained terrible -in fact slightly worse- than last season (1.15 in 2011 compared to 1.14 in 2010). In Coble's last season, with the Wildcats in 2009, the defense *only* allowed 1.07 per possession. Look at the defensive rebounding, steal, and block percentages from that season for the players who weren't on the next two incarnations of the Wildcats (Coble, Craig Moore, and Sterling Williams) here. Despite accusations of dubious one-on-one defensive ability, Coble has proven to be the defensive difference-maker for the Wildcats, and I do feel vindicated.

Chris Allen's dismissal- This has been worse than I thought, but I had also predicated that Izzo would have a lot of options. Not so much. Two and a half of the three options I outlined were also taken away. I think the Sparties were starting to get it together in conference play as Lucious rounded into shape, but then he got kicked off the team. Given that Russell Byrd was removed from the equation before the season began, and as Summers actually has seemed to regress, it is only now that Keith Appling has started to figure out his role on offense that MSU has started to look like a NCAA tourney team again. I was way off on how MSU would play this year, even though I guessed even if Summers failed to improve and Appling & Byrd weren't ready, the Lucious + Lucas backcourt option for replacing Allen might take MSU down a peg or two, but there was no way to know Korie Lucious and Russell Byrd would be out, or Summers would be worse in most statistical categories.* Allen's dismissal has been a BFD, indeed.

As for Rob Hummel's loss, the recovery by PU has been amazing. His loss has almost entirely mitigated by great leaps forward in performance by Lewis Jackson, DJ Byrd, & Ryne Smith. To use KenPom's numbers, as these role players from last year got increased usage, they all three made the rare feat of dramatically upping their offensive efficiency. Byrd's ORtg jumped 25 pts, Jackson's jumped 17.7, and Smith's went up 31.5!!! By comparison, Jordan Taylor's eye-popping improvement is measured at a 20.3 ORtg points. Could this be a championship-worthy squad without Hummel? They seem to have become better than the barely-borderline top-ten team I came to think they might be. We'll just have to see how they do in the NCAA's.

*Summers' three-point and block percentages are up, but those are counter-acted by worse 2-point and free-throw shooting and lower steal/rebounding percentages. His turnovers are down, but so are his assists. There's been no "senior improvement" here, which wasn't unreasonable to assume, but the fact that he's been slightly worse when the Sparties have needed him is really unfortunate.

Indiana 2011 is pre-Shurna Northwestern. Yikes!

2011-03-04T12:15:00.000-08:00

Someone asked over at Crimson Quarry during the late minutes of the Wisconsin loss "where has this effort been?" I think I can answer that - it's been there. Having watched multiple defeats in a row over the last couple of weeks, I can safely say that this Indiana ballclub is a scrappy, slightly undersized team that simply cannot execute in the first half and falls victim to opponents' heroic performances in the second. Thus, the title of this post.

To compare to an actual Big Ten team (I keed, I keed), I went back and looked at the end of the Keady years and beginning of the Painter years, as a lot of woofing by Purdue sportsblogs about Crean started me thinking about the comparable situations. And I think this year is very comparable to Painter's first year ('05-'06) for IU, which was also a 3-win, last-place conference season. This was also coming off a previous 3-win season, in which injuries to the best players short-circuited both season's chances at success, and gutty efforts didn't overcome the talent disparity in a very tough conference. I don't think it is fair in any way to consider the two rebuilding efforts equal, or to compare to 2008 Purdue "Baby Boiler" team to any IU team until the 2012 class steps on campus.*

*IF* Crean is anywhere near the equal of Painter, we should see IU get to the NCAA tourney next season (or at least come close -PU was a bubble team in '07) and the following season bring in a stellar class that finally puts the Hoosiers back in contention for a Big Ten championship. Crean has a done a great job recruiting, and rebuilding program morale for the Hoosiers while trying to rebuild from a total demolition that has rarely, if ever, been seen in college hoops. Even Baylor didn't start from absolute zero like Crean did. Painter, while starting out with somewhat less hype and fanfare in those areas than Crean, has simply just won games, and is now a legit contender for National Coach of the Year. And kudos to him, he's doing a great job. I do kinda hope that he has to play St. John's in the first or second round in the NCAA tourney, tho. It'd be great TV to see him go up against Keady.

For next season, maybe Tyler Zeller is the missing piece on both ends, maybe Mo Creek finally returns to his frosh form, and maybe Verdell Jones and Christian Watford both actually stay healthy for a consecutive 12+ month period. It's a lot of maybes, but I do expect to see improvement across the board. However, I also think the Hoosiers will probably see at least one off-season transfer, maybe two.

Additional say huh? note: The BYU program- I know sportswriters tend to be a conservative bunch, so I'll say it. Brandon Davies getting kicked out of the program for having sexual relations with his girlfriend is the end of that program's ability to recruit young men. BYU will now literally be known as the program where you can't get laid, and that explicitness is not good for recruiting. Yes, there'll always be a stream of particularly straight-laced-and-proud-of-it Mormon recruits, but this additional attention to not being able to be scruffy, drink caffeine (let alone alcohol), or consort with females is still going to hurt the program, long-term. In the short-term, it's probably the end of their final four hopes, too.

*Side note: I know it is nit-picking, but it seems irritatingly forgotten by everybody that the "Baby Boilers" had the nation's top Juco center in Nemanja Calasan, who saw starting minutes, and Scott Martin -who now stars for Notre Dame- was a really significant contributor as well. Moore & Hummel were the stars, and JaJuan Johnson has grown into a great player in the intervening years, but without the late pick-up of Calasan (who had been committed to Utah?), I don't see those Boilers having the interior experience and toughness to win 15 conference games. But they had him, and they did, so I do wish that the fact that the stellar Baby Boiler class is down to two of the original five was somewhat more acknowledged. Like I said, nit-picking.

2011 Midconference Player Efficiency Report

2011-02-15T10:31:00.000-08:00

My analysis, cross-posted, of the individual player rating stats I crunched for the first-half of the conference season, and what it might mean for each Big Ten team. The rating system and its explanation can be found here. Without further ado, here's my school-by-school notes.

Illinois
Jaw-droppingly good! McCamey's been pretty good still, but not the senior superstar most expected. Mike Davis is playing as well as he ever has, but the real surprise is despite Bill Cole's solid performance, Jereme Richmond is just flat-out demanding more minutes with his very good numbers. Richmond is the future of the Illini, and it'll be interesting to see how next year's stellar class fits in with him.
I'm concerned... DJ Richardson continues hit open jumpers and not do much else, and Brandon Paul shoots a lot without much efficiency. However, the regression of Tyler Griffey and Meyers Leonard in conference play has to concern Bruce Weber. If Davis or Mike Tisdale aren't playing aggressively, who does he go to?
I can haz more PT? Joseph Bertrand has posted good efficiency numbers is his very limited minutes, and probably deserves some more time. However, he'd have to take minutes away from Cole or Richmond for that to happen this season. Otherwise, I think the perception of this being a disappointing season for the Illini is a little overstated by their fans. The Big Ten is a great conference this year, and it's hard to win a lot of games with seniors who never really displayed dominance as a team.

Indiana
Jaw-droppingly good! Uhhhhh, maybe "jaw-droppingly average?" Verdell Jones maintaining his effective performance despite injuries bears mention, as does Jordan Hulls' giant jump in efficiency despite increased usage. Christian Watford's average performance as a featured part of the offense has been pleasant for IU fans, as has his relatively quick return from injury. Jeremiah Rivers would be really good if only he could keep the turnovers under control.
I'm concerned... Maurice Creek was, unfortunately, the disappointment of the season, as he would've been valuable if he'd been 80% the player he was as a freshman. Creek was pretty obviously less than 50% before his injury. Bobby Capobianco & Derek Elston's regression has also been disappointing, but maybe that's just how Crean develops big men. After all….
I can haz more PT? Tom Pritchard has bounced back nicely from a disappointing sophomore season, and is really the guy IU needs to play heavy minutes if they are to continue to surprise quality opponents (and the Big Ten has nothing quality opponents). Victor Oladipo does need to play more, as he's the best per-possession player for the Hoosiers, but I do like having Will Sheehey start – he seems to have quick hands and an aggressive attitude from the opening tip that's catching. And if he picks up a foul or two early, it's not crippling for the team. Matt Roth also is playing decently in-conference.

Iowa
Jaw-droppingly good! Melsahn Basabe is the surprise of the conference, but Bryce Cartwright should be mentioned, too. The fact that Fran McCaffrey was able to bring in two Big Ten-level starters over the summer should serve notice to the rest of the league- don't sleep on Iowa!
I'm concerned... Matt Gatens and Eric May have not been the improved players I expected them to be, and Zach McCabe and Devyn Marble haven't been all that great, either. Still, Marble at least looks to be a future starter for the Hawkeyes, and May is recovering from injuries.
I can haz more PT? Jarryd Cole and Basabe shouldn't lose any minutes, but Devon Archie and Andrew Brommer have been nice surprises off the bench. Outside of Marble, I don't see any need for increased PT for any one player, but it's been surprising how fast McCaffrey has made this a dangerous team with an entirely different playing style.

Michigan
Jaw-droppingly good! Darius Morris' improvement has been jaw-dropping indeed. He has the look of a future NBA point guard, and no Big Ten team relies so heavily on one player to create offense. Maybe others have been surprised, but I think Novak's improved performance this year was to be expected. After all, he's finally playing in position, & is no longer forced to match up against guys like Blake Griffin!
I'm concerned... Stu Douglass, Jordan Morgan, and Tim Hardaway weren't looking all that great efficiency-wise, but post-number-crunching they each have had breakout games, so who knows. Evan Smotrycz is currently to be the least efficient player in the rotation. Blake McLimans hasn't seen much time, but registering zeroes is never a good sign.
I can haz more PT? Jon Horford should see a few more minutes, in my estimation, as Jordan Morgan was the worst starting center in the conference. However, Morgan's got the size and runs a mean pick-and-roll with Morris, but keep an eye on Horford this season and next. Otherwise, the fact Michigan is even discussing a possible NCAA berth this late in the season should redeem Beilien for last year.

Michigan State
Jaw-droppingly good! Still Draymond Green. Simply the best per-possession and per-game player in the conference, and a very, very large part of all of MSU's close wins. Kalin Lucas appears to be playing at the best of his career, and Delvon Roe is second only to Sullinger and JaJuan Johnson in the middle.
I'm concerned... Three top-ten players, and this is still a mediocre team in the conference. Durrell Summers seems to be the most hurt from Korie Lucious' dismissal, as Lucas' assists seem to go mostly to the bigs, while Lucious found Summers and Appling for open shots. That said, Summers (and Appling) needs to step it up in a serious way if MSU is to have any life in the post-season.
I can haz more PT? Granted, my system favors reserve big men, but Derrick Nix and Adriean Payne seem to be the best of that bunch. Unfortunately, Green and Roe seem to do best at the 4 and 5-spots, and not the 3 and 4. If Nix can integrate himself into the line-up and get major minutes while not decreasing Roe and Green's effectiveness, MSU may be able to rally. Chris Allen's dismissal and Russell Byrd's injury are also really being felt right now by Sparty fans.

Minnesota
Jaw-droppingly good! For a guy who I never expected to play, Trevor Mbakwe has been truly jaw-droppingly good. Right now, he's playing at the three-spot and still dominating. It bears mentioning that point guards Al Nolen and Devoe Joseph were playing quite efficiently before the injury and apparent losing-of-the-marbles, respectively.
I'm concerned... Blake Hoffarber is the worst point guard in the conference, but it's obviously not his fault. Really, the lack of depth at this position is a real concern, as the departed transfer Justin Cobbs wasn't great last season, but he was a lot better than the out-of-his-depth Maverick Ahanmisi.
I can haz more PT? Al Nolen needs to get healthy. Rodney Williams and Blake Hoffarber's efficiencies are suffering as they play out of position. Chip Armelin strikes me as the guy who really needs to start getting more minutes, even though he can't shoot from distance, he really just makes things happen.

Northwestern
Jaw-droppingly good! Juice Thompson has been quite the leader this year despite shouldering insane minutes, and guards Alex Marcotullio and JerShon Cobb have been pleasant surprises as well.
I'm concerned... Drew Crawford has really faded in conference play, posting per-possession numbers equivalent to the other worst rotation player, Davide Curletti. Shurna has also taken a step back, but it's hard to call his performance disappointing as he struggles through injuries and remains productive.
I can haz more PT? I've long been a Mike Capocci advocate, and so to see him play a crucial part in almost upsetting Ohio State was satisfying. However, I can't figure out why Bill Carmody doesn't give his starting forwards more rest as they invariably seem to break down with the heavy minutes foisted upon them. You can ask Juice Thompson or Craig Moore to play 95% of your possessions, but Shurna and Coble take a lot of abuse in the post, and when valuable per-possession players like Peljusic and Capocci are just riding the pine, I can't figure out why he doesn't spare his key players some punishment. Furthermore, it has become apparent that Carmody ended NU's NCAA hopes when he chased away Kevin Coble, instead of being patient with a talented young man who never had basketball as his life's priority. I realize Northwestern has never had it so good, but they are no threat to ever make the NCAA's as currently led by Carmody. If perpetual NIT snubs are good enough for the NU administration, so be it.

Ohio State
Jaw-droppingly good! Um, Jared Sullinger. Amazing. However, I should note David Lighty –the one-time afterthought in another amazing recruiting class- has become a really solid multi-position player. Also, Aaron Craft has been shockingly good for a freshman point, but it's easy to rack up assists when there's this much talent surrounding you. We'll see next season if he's more like Bobby Hurley or Greg Paulus.
I'm concerned... Thad Matta plays Lighty, Diebler, Buford, Craft, and Sullinger heavy minutes, and Lauderdale and Thomas only in rotation. This may get him into trouble in the postseason if the Buckeyes run into foul trouble or injuries, as only Jordan Sibert gets any minutes on the perimeter.
I can haz more PT? DeShaun Thomas is the one guy on the team who really looks like he deserves more minutes than he gets. You could make an argument for Sibert or Smith to get more minutes, but until OSU looks vulnerable (and even post-Wisconsin, they really don't), why would you argue with Matta?

Penn State
Jaw-droppingly good! Jeff Brooks. Efficient, productive, and when he was out for a home game with Michigan, Penn State missed him big-time. Jackson and Battle have both been good, and Andrew Jones finally returned to form, somewhat. Tim Frazier looks to be the star of next year's team.
I'm concerned... Zero depth here, as the bench is terrible. Billy Oliver, Cameron Woodyard, and Jemaine Marshall are putting up walk-on numbers. Oliver, for example, is about half as efficient the 10th player on last year's squad – (the redshirted) Sasa Borovnjak.
I can haz more PT? Um, Taran Buie may not have been great in the pre-season, but he was another player at least. If he could convince DeChellis that he'd shaped up and return, it would help this team out a lot. As it stands now, he may not ever come back.

Purdue
Jaw-droppingly good! For all of the wailing that Boiled Sports and Hammer and Rails has done about E'Twuann Moore, he's the clearly the best off-guard in the best conference in the country – performing at a much higher rate than Talor Battle. I think they expect him to be some fantasized version of Michael Jordan or something, but honestly – what more can he do? JaJuan Johnson might be the best center in the league at the end of the season, but he's currently taking a backseat to Sullinger, which, y'know, who isn't? Lewis Jackson has really stepped up his production, as has Ryne Smith. I know Boilers hate to hear this, but with a healthy Hummel, this likely would have been a championship squad.
I'm concerned... The lack of quality depth inside is less dire than I worried it might be, as Carroll and Bade are putting up average per-possession stats. However, they are doing this in less than half of the available minutes at the four-spot, meaning that Kelsey Barlow and DJ Byrd are filling in for the majority of those minutes.
I can haz more PT? Matt Painter's done a pretty great job, and I don't have anything really to comment on. Maybe Barlow could use a few more minutes and Smith could use a few less, and I'm curious to see how Carroll develops, but this is a good deep team.

Wisconsin
Jaw-droppingly good! Jordan Taylor's growth is now on an Evan Turner-like scale, except that Turner was a least a legit starter from the time he stepped on campus. Jon Leuer's got relatively low efficiency for the impact he has on the game, and it's been a while since I've such a tough, yet skilled big man. He reminds me a lot of Alan Henderson. And Keaton Nankivil is really opening eyes with his surprising performances, right now- he's the best B10 power forward not named Green, Brooks, or Mbakwe.
I'm concerned... Ryan Evans and Rob Wilson are both good athletes, but are putting up truly terrible numbers. The regression is not such a big deal this season, but who's gonna start at forward alongside Bruesewitz next season?
I can haz more PT? Nothing obvious here, except I'd like to see Jared Berggren get some more possessions as he's the likely starter for UW next year, as far as I can tell. Bo Ryan is squeezing his top players for their production, and he is getting results.

Thoughts on the Indiana win over Illinois

2011-01-30T08:39:00.000-08:00

Perhaps it's not such a big deal that IU took down one of the most vulnerable and mercurial heavyweights in the conference. Indiana should be getting back to a point where they defend their homecourt against anyone, no? And even though Illinois threw the ball away a couple times down the stretch, this was a pretty satisfying win from my point of view. No Verdell Jones, no Maurice Creek, and an opponent who was playing some *great* defense. I was really impressed by the Illini defense, and was thinking to myself throughout the game that IU would have a hard time breaking 50 points (and they did). However, I was also really impressed by the Hoosier defense - specifically Jeremiah Rivers and Tom Pritchard did a lot to shut down the main motors of the Illini offense. And as a bonus, I saw Christian Watford actually playing some solid defense and running the floor in transition, and Jordan Hulls played smart and didn't get exposed defensively (at least, as far as I saw). It's a good win, and frankly, this was the "surprising" win I predicted was in IU's future. Hopefully, there's a couple more, along with a few decent home wins over the other lower-shelf Big Ten teams.

The loss of Jones and Creek hurts, obviously, but there's a couple of good things it made the Hoosiers do- 1) Play Rivers until his legs fall off: Rivers is wildly uneven, and threw the ball out of bounds for no apparent reason just as much as the whole Illinois team, but IU could not have won this game without his defense on McCamey and his penetration and passing that involved the whole team. With Pritchard and Rivers on the floor, and Watford actually working at it - the Hoosier defense isn't so bad. 2) Force shots to come from Hulls or Roth: Roth was cold, but Hulls certainly wasn't. Creek's outside shooting was not back yet, and having him chuck threes was hurting the IU offense. Hulls also did a reasonable imitation of Jones' ability to penetrate and shoot in the lane a couple of times, but they need Jones back. However, I think Jones tends to call his own number a little too much, and the other Hoosiers tend to sit around and watch what he's gonna do, ultimately stagnating the offense. The Hoosiers need Jones as our bailout man, but IMHO, we need him to be slightly less featured in the regular offense.

One negative note, why do the IU ballhandlers, after passing back out, just stand around dejectedly or walk away disinterestedly from the ball? Either run to corner to space the floor or make an *immediate* cut to the hoop. C'mon, Crean, even Davis knew this one.

And one final note. What is up with Boiled Sports? The life of a Purdue fan must be pretty miserable if this much effort goes into deriding another basketball program after one win. I mean, Purdue's pretty good this year, right? And IU's not so good, so what's with all the fear and loathing? Weird.

All is not lost

2010-12-28T13:15:00.000-08:00

After catching up on a lot of Hoosier basketball on the DVR as my new son refused to sleep on anything but my chest today, I don't feel like the three straight losses should spell gloom and doom for the season- I think IU will still end up around .500 overall, picking up six or so wins in the conference. I see at least one powerpoll (from a hostile source) placing IU as 11th in the conference, but count me down as believing the Hoosiers will bounce back. I do see three major themes weaving themselves through the Hoosier basketball season so far:

1) Overconfidence- in even the cupcake games, this Hoosier team has repeatedly started out slow and gone big chunks of first halves without scoring. Watford, Jones, and Creek all seem all-to-willing to look for their shot without reading the defense. Furthermore, I think the powderpuffs helped convince Jones that he was back at the top of his game before he was anywhere near it.

2) Injuries- Obviously Watford was not himself, which is always a reason for concern when a young guy starts getting back spasms, but he & Crean need to figure out whether he can contribute or not. After all the work done in pre-conference establishing him as the go-to guy, IU's offense gets crippled if C-Wat isn't looking\able to score. However, although lots of ink has been spilled about Creek not being "back" yet, to me it's Verdell Jones that really struggled coming back from several injuries so far this season. So, consider that's all three of IU's top players trying to come back from injuries, not to mention Tom Pritchard's mystery paw and Matt Roth - who might finally be rounding into shape.

3) Youth - Oladipo and Sheehey are freshmen, and may be forgiven for the occasional turnover or poor shot selection. It's Crean's job to limit their minutes (possibly through yanking them out when they do commit these sins) so that they understand what they're doing wrong. And the rest of the guys are figuring out new roles, and the only ones to seemingly adapt without massively increasing their turnover or foul percentage are Rivers and Pritchard.

In any case, the confluence of factors leaves the Hoosiers probably less well off than most folks hoped they'd be by now, but I think Crean teams almost always have a nadir in late December. Look for some improved play and a couple of surprising wins in the months to come.

Big Ten Wins! Indiana loses

2010-12-03T08:23:00.000-08:00

Most of the commentary has covered the ACC-B10 fairly well, but there's a few things I want to note.

1) The games are fun to watch. I don't know what it is about the challenge, but it really has a touch of March Madness energy to it. Maybe it's that all the teams are fairly well-known and usually pretty decent, and it's an early (sometimes the first) measuring stick of how good teams might actually be. But maybe it's also that each game is part of something bigger, and if your team loses, you have a bunch of other teams in the next game to root for.

2) My predictions sure were off- the Big Ten won the challenge and yet Minnesota really suffered without Nolen and a full-strength Williams, and Penn State was just absolutely horrible at home versus Maryland. As one PSU fan noted, the losses of Chris Babb's offense and Bill Edwards' rebounding are starting to be really felt. Sure, Buie had a bad night, but I figured with Brooks' improvement and any offensive contributions from Frazier, Jackson, and Jones- PSU would have a good chance down the stretch. Aside from a few offensive boards, the Lions got nothing from those three on that side of the ball. If that continues, Penn State may well remain in last place.

3) Michigan and Iowa aren't too bad- Michigan pulled off a shocker at Clemson, and along with Purdue's win at Virginia Tech, were probably the reason that the Big Ten triumphed. Michigan just looked like a much smarter and more disciplined team than the Tigers. Iowa lost at Wake Forest, despite having multiple chances to win it before an improbable three with just seconds left sank them. I was never big on Iowa's chances on the road anyway, but being able to bounce back and nearly get the win shows that Hawkeyes are going to be competitive in a lot of Big Ten games this year, even if they don't end up with more than a handful of wins.

4) Michigan State is a legitimate title threat - if only they can stop dribble penetration. Kemba Walker and Kyrie Irving have NBA-level talent, sure. Still, I'd like to see some of their performances against non-MSU teams before according them lottery positions in next spring's draft. Still, MSU always starts slow and turned the ball over on a quarter of their possessions at Cameron, and *still* was in the game until the end. Their offense is impressive, and their defense has potential to get a lot better (notably, as Payne improves and gets more time). Duke and MSU are the only teams that are good bets to repeat their Final Four berths at this point.

5) Northwestern's offense is really good, but they could've used a quality opponent in this challenge. NU has a terrible time getting quality non-conference foes on the docket, and having Georgia Tech as their challenge foe is going to hurt them come Selection Sunday.

6) Indiana lost, as I expected, at BC, but showed some really nice things in coming back. Inside the Hall has an interesting conversation about who should be the IU point guard, but I'd still like to see what Jones can do when he's completely healthy and back on the same page with the rest of the team. Until that point, tho, Hulls should probably be starting point, with Rivers in for Hulls or Jones if they have defensive troubles or if teams start pressing. And I saw some negative talk about Creek jacking shots (2-for-8 on threes), but as I said about Rod Wilmont some years ago "Every team needs a guy, and sometimes every team needs to bench a guy, who always believes his next shot is going in." Creek is very useful and needs to keep shooting, but Crean might want to bring Creek's minutes down a little until his defense returns to an acceptable level.

Basketball W's, Soccer L, ACC-B10 Challenge

2010-11-29T08:30:00.000-08:00

The Men's Soccer team had a rough season-ending loss at Akron, 2-1. The Zips had the better run of the play, but a miscue on the back line was IU's undoing. Right after the Zips scored the first goal, a bad clearance led to a 1v1 with the keeper, and Akron made IU pay. IU bounced back with a late goal from Adlard, but these miscues on the back line is really something that Yeags has to work on during the offseason. The losses of Daniel Kelly, Andy Adlard, Rich Balchan, and Cameron Jordan will be felt, and their hard work for the Hoosiers is appreciated. Thanks guys! Still, some great offensive weapons and a good defensive core returns, and Soffner seems to be improving (he evidently had 6 saves and broke a bunch of dangerous chances), so the outlook is good for next season. How good comes down to whether Will Bruin goes pro or not. He clearly has the talent to do so, and he suffered an ankle injury before the game at Akron, so who knows? If he returns, IU could make the jump to title contender again next season.

The Men's basketball team took out North Carolina Central and Northwestern State. The notable developments here were that Oladipo seems to be taking a step forward (maybe his confidence has been lifted with that great 3/4 court halftime buzzer shot vs. NC-Central), Matt Roth has returned to the line-up (in spot minutes), and the team as a whole seems to be slightly reducing its egregious turnover rate. However, the next two weeks will give IU fans a much better idea about the true progress of the team. A road game at Boston College awaits, and BC appears to be on the road to being the bubble team that I thought they would be. The Eagles don't shoot well from outside but do give up some threes to their opponents, and they don't cause a ton of turnovers (despite getting a lot of steals) or hit the offensive boards. However, they do score well from inside the arc and they don't turn the ball over themselves. IU should be able to hang with BC, even on the road, especially as the Hoosiers appear to be a much deeper team. Still, as this is IU's first real road game and Jones still rounding back into shape and Maurice Creek nowhere near 100%, I think BC wins this game by about 10 points. Here's hoping I'm wrong!

Overall, I think KenPom has the best take on ACC-B10 challenge, and I think the key games are indeed tonight's Virginia at Minnesota game (2 starters for Minny are out) and Maryland at PSU. As long as the Big 10 wins those home games, they should be fine. Maryland at PSU will be a tough one, tho, as Maryland will be a bubble team and PSU is a NIT team at best. PSU could really use a re-emergence of Andrew Jones' defensive prowess to lock this one up, as Maryland has had a hard time not turning the ball over or shooting well from outside, and I really doubt the Terps have any answer for Talor Battle. Go Big Ten!

Indiana Player Efficiencies & other notes

2010-11-23T10:15:00.000-08:00

Before I get to the IU men's Basketball efficiencies, let me first congratulate the Big Ten for going 5-0 in the NCAA Men's Soccer tournament so far. And specifically, I'd like to congratulate the Hoosiers for pasting Tulsa 5-1. Now, the Hoosiers have a really steep challenge to go on the road to face a very good Akron team. If I were young Yeags, I'd really lay it on thick this week about how a lot of folks wanted Akron coach Caleb Porter instead of him as IU coach, and how he wants to show everyone that IU made the right call, after all. Go Hoosiers!

Basketball!
Watching the first half of the Evansville game, I was disappointed in the way the Hoosiers let themselves be taken out of their offense by mere physicality. Not surpisingly, the players who responded the best were the veterans Pritchard, Jones, and Rivers. Pritch & Rivers, btw, look like they're adapting to being role-players rather well, but that also means sum total of their first-half contributions were two reserve-lay-ups and a dunk. So, the game looked like it was portending really bad things for the Hoosiers in conference play, and specifically for Christian Watford. However, like earlier games, Watford adapted in the second half. Watford might get a lot of good mileage out of his mid-range game this season, and although he's still IU's best option on offense so far, he clearly needs someone else to hit some threes to free up space in the paint.

I ran my player efficiency ratings for the first four games, and there's not a lot to be gleaned from the findings - especially when you consider the relatively weak competition. It's basically statistical confirmation that Watford is playing well, Verdell Jones is struggling, and Maurice Creek is only running at about 65% efficiency from last year (which really, is generous. Zero steals so far? C'mon). Tom Pritchard is playing well again - efficiency-wise, but he's still fouling out half of time and isn't able to stay on the floor for even half of the possessions in a game. One really bright spot in per-possession terms is Will Sheehey, who at less than 7 minutes/game (or 11.6 possessions) is leading the team in efficiency. Furthermore, Sheehey has a brash confidence and enthusiasm for the game that we haven't seen from a Hoosier reserve since perhaps AJ Moye (And speaking of, best wishes to AJ for a full and speedy recovery). Anyway, here's the numbers:

name (poss. per game) eff. points per game / eff. rating per poss.

Christian Watford (48.6) 24.1 /.4965
Jordan Hulls (50.7) 14.9 / .2932
Tom Pritchard (31.4) 14.5 / .4619
Verdell Jones (46.9) 11.5 / .2454
Jeremiah Rivers (37.4) 11.0 / .2941
Maurice Creek (35.7) 10.9 / .3047
Derek Elston (21.2) 8.2 / .3849
Victor Olapdipo (26.2) 7.0 / .2669
Will Sheehey (11.6) 6.0 / .5168
Bobby Capobianco (16.3) 5.4 / .3289
Daniel Moore~ (14.2) 4.5 / .3171
Jeff Howard~ (5.7) 1.8 / .3198

College Basketball general thoughts

2010-11-19T13:50:00.000-08:00

1) Indiana- I had forecast IU as a NIT team, primarily on the strength of their easy non-conference schedule. However, after the first few games (which were against mediocre-at-best clubs, to be fair) and the exhibition games I think the Hoosiers could actually hang in the Big Ten as well. I really doubt that this at a point where Illinois, Minnesota, and Northwestern should be scared of getting swept by IU, but this team really should be the "best of rest" in the Big 10 and I could see them drumming up 8 wins pretty easily. What's the difference? A) Christian Watford- the guy has put in some time this summer, and looks much more confident finishing at the rim or on the wing. I don't think he'll ever be a totally dominant player, but the Big Ten Geeks are starting to look pretty smart for picking him as the conference's most-improved player. B) The freshmen- Frankly, the Hoosiers haven't had any lengthy perimeter athletes since Crean came on, and both Oladipo and Sheehey have shown some real athleticism as well as a desire to play defense. Oladipo in particular has shown the ability to penetrate, pass, rebound, block, steal, and hit big shots. He has to put it all together, but he & Sheehey give the Hoosiers a dimension they just did not have last season. C) Shooting- Creek & Roth (hopefully) return, giving the Hoosier offense some bite from outside. If you combine this with Watford's ability to score inside and the frosh wings' ability to slash to the basket, suddenly the Hoosier offense has options. We really could see a fundamental leap forward in per-possession terms from the Hoosiers on offense, and we should see a significant (if smaller) improvement on defense as well.

2) Over-rated! I do not understand this lovefest for North Carolina, and to a lesser extent Syracuse, Ohio State, and Villanova. Ohio State should be pretty good, but I just don't see how losing Evan Turner means OSU goes from a top-16 team to a top-5 team, even with JJ Sullinger. Granted, OSU did a pretty good job on Florida, but still. Syracuse also loses their best player, along with their center and best perimeter player. I just see the 'Cuse losing too much rebounding for their defense to stay top-notch. The most egregious case of over-rating is UNC, tho. Look at it this way: A last-place ACC team loses a couple of starters, welcomes a few highly talented freshmen, and is not considered a conference front-runner, but a marginal bubble team. I'm actually talking about North Carolina State here, as North Carolina fits that exact description except for the fact that they lost four starters, as well as two rotation players off the bench. That's a lot of new faces. Yes, Harrison Barnes will be very good, and having frosh point Kendahl Marshall around should charge up the point guard spot. But John Henson will have to improve a lot and Tyler Zeller will have to stay healthy in order to replace both Deon Thompson and Ed Davis, and transfer Justin Knox is going to have to replace the minutes of both Wear twins. I won't say that UNC won't be better, I just have a hard time seeing how, essentially, Harrison Barnes turns this club into a title contender all by himself.

3) I gotta take Gasaway, et al's side on the Purdue-as-not-a-top-ten-team-without-Hummel. Boiled Sports is pretty mad about it, but I think their argument is that without Hummel, the Boilers were a sweet 16 team, so with some new faces and a couple of possible All-Americans they should be considered a Final Four threat. This doesn't really take into consideration that last year's Boiler team lost Chris Kramer (who was probably the biggest reason PU got past Texas A&M) and Keaton Grant - the two best perimeter defenders the Boilers have had for the last couple of years. Sure, the loss of those guys could be overcome with some newbies and the return of the big three. But with Hummel out... long story short, yes- one guy can make that much of a difference. This isn't quite the old LSU teams without Shaq or the old Memphis teams without Penny Hardaway, 'cause there weren't a lot of other good players on those teams. However, Purdue's looking at holding steady as a best-case scenario without Hummel, and I think the Final Four -barring a series of miracles- is probably out of reach again for PU.

IU Soccer: Sweet 16?

2010-11-16T13:17:00.001-08:00

I suspect that IU is actually a better team than even the RPI and NCAA tourney seed ranking it has received (12 & 14, respectively). IU had nothing to play for in the final game at Ohio State, and the match that they dropped in the tourney was against a good team (Penn State) who was also playing at home. Although the Hoosiers showed some effort, PSU essentially just out-hustled them for the win. I do want to mention that Jacob Bushue's poor passing essentially crippled the IU attack for much of the game. There's no doubting that kid's fire and future potential, but if he continues to shank the ball so miserably, I'd suggest Cam Jordan actually see some minutes?

My prediction for the Hoosiers in the NCAA's is that they will go out in the round of sixteen, but just because their low seed means they'll be playing at Akron that round. I simply don't think these Hoosiers will be win at Akron. Can they? Of course! But it ain't likely.

Individual Player Grades
(derived strictly from the season box score & watching the BTN games)

Will Bruin (A) A man among boys, just amazingly fast for being so big and strong. He could be a little better finishing with his head, and the fact that only three of his goals have been game-winners is a bit of a head-scratcher, but this guy is good. I hope IU doesn't lose him to the pros, but I wouldn't be surprised.

Andy Adlard (B+) Adlard is the set-piece master, and has been a solid presence as an attacking midfielder for the Hoosiers. Not the quickest player or a real ball-winner, but an integral part of the Hoosier offense.

Alec Purdie (B+) He has really grown into a solid striker, but still has a bit of a quick trigger, both on shots (reflected in his low sog%) and emotionally. Good scrapper, tho.

Harrison Petts (A-) The real deal as a freshman. Good attacking instincts, and tracks back well on defense, too. Tends to get a little passive on occasion, he should be demanding the ball more.

Nikita Kotlov (B+) Great at throw-ins, and a dangerous attacker. I don't think I've ever seen Nikita be passive, but he does rather like to try to dribble through four defenders.

Chris Estridge (B+) Has great touch dribbling the ball and is a good two-way player, but I do wonder if he shouldn't be starting in the backfield. His shot-on-goal percentage is the lowest of any non-back.

Jacob Bushue (B) A truly impressive competitor for being a freshman. Reminds me a lot of Caleb Porter as a sophomore, really just getting the heads of the competition and pissing them off. Similarly, his passing is sometimes just lousy, and he's no threat to score. But he's obviously the future at defensive-midfielder for IU.

Daniel Kelly (B+) Has there been a game where Kelly didn't go down with an apparent season-ending injury, only to show back up in the starting line-up the next game? 'Cause I do think I've seen it. Kelly's been a good two-way player, and serves some sweet bendy-balls into the box. He also has boomed a few well over the goal as well.

Rich Balchan (B+) When Balchan is healthy and going at speed, he ignites some electrifying runs out of the back. However, I've never seen them amount to anything in the final third of the field. Also, Balchan more than anyone else seems to have some deadly miscues in the backfield. If I were coaching (and thankfully Todd is) I'd be interested in switching Balchan & Estridge.

Tommy Meyer (A-) I'm throwing out the botched first goal at PSU here, because Tommy secured his man on the loose ball and the PSU attacker came out of nowhere- and his defender should've warned Meyer. Meyer has touch on the ball and has been a solid defender this year. He's not much of an offensive threat, but that's not his role.

Caleb Konstanski (A-) Caleb really grew in the offseason to be a lock-down defender, and during the year it seems he grew into an offensive threat as well. He's actually been pretty unlucky not to score several more goals, but NCAA foes would do well to keep track of him or he'll make them pay.

Luis Soffner (C+) I'm not a fan of Soffner generally, but at least in the PSU game he was coming out and breaking up plays. He's shown some improvement, and has a pro build for goalkeeping, but I just don't see him possessing Keeper's instincts.

Bench:

Joe Tolen (A-) Tolen's getting this grade for improvement. He's obviously worked hard, and while may not be the fastest or strongest striker out there, has a great booming shot that made Northwestern pay. Really, Harry Weiss didn't have a lot more athleticism than what Tolen's got, and he did pretty well.

Tyler McCarroll (B-) He's not done much that's eye-catching in his minutes off the bench, but he's got good speed and touch and is fine as a sub.

Tim Wylie (B-) ibid.

Cameron Jordan (B) Former starter who's a good sub for the backs or mids. He doesn't have a lot of speed or touch, and makes the occasional miscue. Still, he's a veteran presence who should be helpful if IU finds itself in a tough situation in the tournament.

Matt McKain (B) McKain's done well when filling in for injuries or suspensions. A possible starter next year.

Nate Mitchell (B-) Even though Mitchell has a 2.00 Goals-against-average, he seems to be part of good wins for the Hoosiers and I like his instincts. I don't think he's the answer between the pipes for IU, either, but I'd want him as my goalie rather than Soffner in a PK shootout.

Indiana Player notes from the exhibition games

2010-11-11T08:28:00.000-08:00

My player notes from watching the two exhibition games. Although this already seems like Indiana's deepest team in a couple of years, IU's best player for the last two years (Verdell Jones) and biggest recruit (Guy-Marc Michel) are still sitting on the sidelines. Despite being down double-digits late in the second half to a D-II team, there's reason for optimism this year.

Christian Watford- good offense in general (altho maybe ease up on the 3-point trigger) still can't defend guys driving to the basket, but hustled to play some really good transition defense in the second half of the Ferris State game. His handles are much improved and he's really IU's only guy who can score with his back to the basket, altho we'll see how that holds in D-I play. He did develop a nice face-up game and really is driving to the basket this year, trying to draw fouls. He's clearly put in some work into making himself a nice feature of the IU offense.

Tom Pritchard- still fouling out- not good. But he plays good defense otherwise inside, and showed good rebounding against Franklin and decent finishing against FSU. He's not necessarily where he needs to be (and he's clearly recovering from some sort of hand injury), but it's quite possible to imagine him retaining the starting job even if Michel gets cleared. However, with Michel sitting out in both exhibition games, he still couldn't average 20 minutes/game, so that doesn't bode well in the long run.

Maurice Creek- What to say? He's clearly working his way back to playing form, and he's making some bad decisions with the ball, not the least of which is shooting far too quickly and often. He runs the floor well on defense and has good handles, but he can lose his guy on defense too easily, which could be disastrous in conference play.

Victor Oladipo- Vic is a freshman, but he looks like a freshman who belongs in the Big Ten. He's got a nose for the offensive rebounds, hits big shots, and really wants to be a full-court-press doberman (a la Scottie Pippen). However, he makes some really poor passes and decisions with the ball in general, and savvy ball-handlers are going to make him pay for over-playing them. I could see him as a sixth "energy" man or even part-time starter this year once Verdell Jones is back.

Jordan Hulls- Jordy seems a little calmer and savvier than last year. He played 41 minutes in the Ferris State game, so obviously Crean trusts him. Also, for nabbing 5 offensive rebounds in two games, he seems to always be the first one back on defense, and he's starting to get some charge calls now. On the other hand, he still tends to get used by bigger guards, which could be a major concern in conference play. That's probably that only thing that might limit Hulls' playing as many minutes as anyone else on the team.

Derek Elston- I like Derek a lot better on defense than Watford. Derek just makes things happen- he racks up some blocks and steals, and his rebounding is as good as anyone on the team, but he just seems to cause a lot of deflections and loose balls too. If I had my druthers, I'd like to see Derek start occasionally. Despite a bit of a rough stretch against Ferris State, his shooting is fine, although his free-throws have been horrid (1-6). Also, he's getting chalked with a lot of turnovers, although I could've sworn Oladipo & Creek were turning it over more than him. There was a brief line-up in the Ferris State game that Capobianco, Elston, and Watford all playing at the same time. I'd like to see some more of that, especially as Indiana starts to face some bigger teams.

Bobby Capobianco- Uh, pretty much the same as last year. Which, as a hard-nosed brusier who mixes it up on both ends of the floor, isn't a bad thing. He still makes the occasional nice pass, but we didn't see any of his three-point stroke in the exhibition games. Honestly, if Pritchard doesn't improve soon, I'd start making more time for Capobianco to see he can develop.

Jeremiah Rivers- Rivers actually played really well in both games. He had one turnover that was totally Olapdipo's fault, and I would credit the win over Ferris State to his excellent defense on the final play of regulation. Watching it frame-by-frame, he was all over the shooter from the inbounds play, causing him to back up and Jeremiah timed his jump almost perfectly, making the shooter fade-fade-fade in order not to get blocked. That slowed the shooter down just enough for time to expire, sending it to OT. Rivers just seems more comfortable coming off the bench as a slasher and rebounder, and although he's maybe not entirely happy about it, it may just be what's best for the team.

Daniel Moore- While Moore looked great in the scrimmage and simply tore apart Franklin College, his role in the Ferris State game seemed a better gauge of what we'll see this year. Solid point guard relief with ball-handling (with a few turnovers) and laudable tendency to tear back on defense and draw charges. Crean probably enjoyed having the ability to put Moore in with Hulls and Rivers when Ferris State was trapping in the last two minutes of overtime.

Matt Roth- I like Roth because he doesn't beat himself. He doesn't turn the ball over, he doesn't force shots (unless it's 2009 and he's IU's only hope of hitting a three late in the game), and he hustles back on defense. However, should he recover quickly from his latest injury (knock on wood), he seems like he's still going to be a rotation player at best. He just can't get boards and make plays like Creek and Oladipo, but he'll be able to come in and settle things down when those guys are having off-nights.

Will Sheehey- I like Sheehey's gumption on the boards and his handles, but I've not seen anything to suggest he should get more than spot minutes this year. His passing leaves a lot to be desired, and IU needs a guy on the wing who can hit threes. He may be a good defender, but evidence thereof really remains to be seen.

Projected 2011 NCAA teams

2010-10-21T15:23:00.000-07:00

Since the official preseason top 25 came out at USA Today, I figured I'd better go ahead and post something for 2011 picks. Enjoy!

1. Michigan State (Big Ten*)
1. ~~Kansas State~~
2. Duke (Atlantic Coast*)
3. Kansas State (Big XII*)
4. Pittsburgh (Big East*)
5. Florida (Southeastern*)
6. West Virginia (Big East)
7. Illinois (Big Ten)
8. Butler (Horizon*)
9. Kentucky (SEC)
10. Purdue (Big Ten)
11. Baylor (Big XII)
12. Virginia Tech (ACC)
13. Washington (Pacific 10*)
14. Villanova (Big East)
15. Temple (Atlantic 10*)
16. Gonzaga (West Coast*)
17. Kansas (Big XII)
18. San Diego State (Mountain West*)
19. Utah State (Western Athletic*)
20. Missouri (Big XII)
21. Virginia Commonwealth (Colonial Athletic*)
22. UNLV (MWC)
23. Kansas (Big XII)
24. Syracuse (Big East)
25. Wisconsin (Big Ten)
26. Richmond (A-10)
27. Tennessee (SEC)
28. Ohio State (Big Ten)
29. Brigham Young (MWC)
30. Wichita State (Missouri Valley*)
31. St. Louis (A-10)
32. Memphis (Conference-USA*)
33. Florida State (ACC)
34. Minnesota (Big Ten)
35. Clemson (ACC)
36. Wofford (Southern*)
37. Texas (Big XII)
38. UTEP (C-USA)
39. Arizona (Pac 10)
40. Murray State (Ohio Valley*)
41. Mississippi (SEC)
42. Dayton (A-10)
43. Georgetown (Big East)
44. Missouri State (MVC)
45. Old Dominion (CAA)
46. Akron (Mid-American*)
47. Texas A&M (Big XII)
48. Seton Hall (Big East)
49. Georgia (SEC)
50. Iona (Metro Atlantic Athletic*)
51. Southern California (Pac 10)
52. St. John's (Big East)
53. North Carolina State (ACC)
54. New Mexico (MWC)
55. Northwestern (Big Ten)

56. Pacific (Big West*)
57. Princeton (Ivy*)
58. Weber State (Big Sky*)
59. Oral Roberts (Summit*)
60. North Texas (Sun Belt*)
61. East Tennessee State (Atlantic Sun*)
62. Stephen F. Austin (Southland*)
63. Maine (America East*)
64. Bucknell (Patriot*)
65. UNC-Asheville (Big South*)
66. South Carolina State (Mid-Eastern Atlantic*)
67. Long Island (Northeast*)
68. Jackson State (Southwestern Athletic*)

The weakest teams are obviously #51-55, and I've noted expected conference winners with an asterisk. Ruminations on why I chose the top seeds are forthcoming.

Projected 2011 NIT teams

2010-10-21T13:34:00.000-07:00

Alabama (SEC)
Arizona State (Pac 10)
Boston College (ACC)
Cleveland State (Horizon)
Colorado (Big XII)
Cincinnati (Big East)
College of Charleston (SoCon)
Colorado State (MWC)
Connecticut (Big East)
Creighton (MVC)
Duquesne (A-10)
George Mason (CAA)
Hofstra (CAA)
Indiana (Big Ten)
Louisville (Big East)
Loyola Marymount (WCC)
Marquette (Big East)
Maryland (ACC)
Marshall (C-USA)
Morehead State (OVC)
North Carolina (ACC)
Northern Iowa (MVC)
Ohio (MAC)
Oklahoma State (Big XII)
Siena (MAAC)
Southern Mississippi (C-USA)
Texas Tech (Big XII)
UCLA (Pac 10)
Vanderbilt (SEC)
Washington State (Pac 10)
Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)
Xavier (A-10)

Most likely to move up: Vanderbilt, Northern Iowa, and Boston College
Most likely to move down: UCLA, George Mason, and Maryland

20 Projected 2011 CBI/CIT quality teams

2010-10-21T13:22:00.000-07:00

Appalachian State (SoCon)
Arkansas (SEC)
Austin Peay (OVC)
Bradley (MVC)
Charlotte (A-10)
Detroit (Horizon)
Drexel (CAA)
Houston Baptist (Great West*)
Miami (FL) (ACC)
Miami (OH) (MAC)
Michigan (Big Ten)
Middle Tennessee State (Sun Belt)
Mississippi State (SEC)
New Mexico State (WAC)
Notre Dame (Big East)
Oregon State (Pac 10)
Penn State (Big Ten)
Stanford (Pac 10)
UAB (C-USA)
Wright State (Horizon)

Thoughts:
Houston Baptist should win the Great West, but the CBI or CIT will be their reward. The most likely teams to move up from this group to the NIT or NCAA tourney would be Penn State, Arkansas, and Charlotte.

Hummel out for year

2010-10-20T14:19:00.000-07:00

My pick for Big Ten preseason POY is out with another ACL injury. Purdue fans have to be shaking their heads. After Michigan State's miserable off-season (well, just the last couple of months) of Izzo-to-NBA rumors, injuries, rape accusations, the suspension of Korie Lucious, Chris Allen's transfer, and then the possibly season-ending injury to Russell Byrd, I was ready to bump Purdue up to #1. Then...

To paraphrase from earlier conversations- Hummel out- BFD? The biggest. Few players have such an impact of national championship hopes. All respect to the Boilers, they'll still be good, a top ten team certainly. But seriously, you can't minimize the impact this guy had on this program, and the fear that he struck into opponents. When Hummel was just a freshman, in a game that determined the regular-season conference champion, Bo Ryan benched senior Brian Butch because Hummel was torching him, and Butch couldn't reciprocate on the other end. Moore and Johnson and the recruits should keep Purdue playing at a high level, but subtracting three starters from last year's team is going to hurt.

Now, I'm having fits trying to figure out who should be #1. Duke has the most talent, but it's just not the same team that barely won the tourney last April (and let's face it, got to the Final Four through on the easiest road of any team that got there). I just think their luck (and offensive rebounding) doesn't hold up twice in a row. Pittsburgh looks to be the class of the Big East... but they aren't very scary. There's no intimidation factor there, heck- IU beat them last year- and Jamie Dixon's never even been to a Final Four. Of course, Kansas State is another possible top pick, but they just looked lethargic in their loss to Butler last spring- when a Final Four berth was on the line. Florida or Kentucky could be top teams, but if UK couldn't do it with Wall & Cousins, are they really going to do it with Knight and (maybe) Kanter? Florida still has to prove they can make stops.

Next Season on Hoosier Hoops

2010-08-27T19:13:00.001-07:00

The schedule came out, so I took a look-over. I know nobody's gonna be impressed by all the easy W's on the schedule, but it's not just creampuffs. I mean, the nearest comparable team in the conference is probably Penn State, and their schedule is even lighter. A confidence-building wins should probably help these guys- they've had enough tough losses and "moral victories" over the last two years. In fact, I think the Hoosiers will probably be 10-3 in their nonconference games. The Big Ten schedule actually isn't too brutal, considering how many decent teams there are in the conference, I think Hoosiers should be able to scrape together seven wins there. Possibly even eight, but I suspect these young players will probably blow at least one game they should win. So, that's a prediction of 17-14 going into the Big Ten Tourney? That's a decent shot at the NIT, and at least a bid in the CBI if that prediction holds up.

A mention by Tom Crean of Guy-Marc Michel as being in all the players' "top eight" sparked an interesting convo on some IU blogs. My top eight... it's actually pretty tough to pick just eight, because of there'll be five players alone in the rotation at the four and five spots (Michel, Capobianco, Pritchard, Elston, and Watford). I think I'll go without Michel, who I believe will be a nominal starter but Capobianco and Pritch will probably still average more minutes. Maurice Creek won't be 100%, but he still be worthy of starting minutes at one wing spot. Point duties will switch back to Verdell Jones, which I think will be a positive. The other wing spot I'm guessing will go to Rivers first as the kid can bring a lot to the table with defense and rebounding. Jordy Hulls will be the primary back-up guard next year, but I'm betting Matt Roth sees more minutes than Victor Oladipo next season, making the redshirt sophomore #9 in the rotation.
I've mentioned 11 players, and I would guess either Will Sheehey's good enough to get some spot minutes or Daniel Moore gets them and Sheehey redshirts. Really, I don't think there'll be just an 8-man rotation. The only time since 2005 Crean has gone with such a short bench was his first year at IU, when he was playing Daniel Moore heavy minutes. My guess is there'll be at least a nine-man rotation next season, and the tenth if Michel really is Big Ten ready.

Final 2010 Big Ten Effiiciency ratings

2010-08-19T07:53:00.000-07:00

The efficiency ratings for 117 players, Big Ten games only, are done. There wasn't a ton of difference from my early ratings, but it is interesting to see who bounced back after rough starts the conference season, etc. This year, I chose 3 possessions per game as my over/under line for inclusion as there were a lot less statistical outliers than usual.

The ratings can be found here. My team-by-team thoughts and top 15's an be found here.

Evan Turner was quite clearly player of the year, even though Draymond Green had the highest per-possession efficiency rating in the conference. And Robbie Hummel was in the conversation as well despite having his season cut short by injury. I would go with Hummel for player of the year next season, unless he's not fully recovered. Rounding the all-conference first team for 2011 would be Demetri McCamey, William Buford, and Jon Leuer.

Freshman of the Year I would award to Drew Crawford, who got a lot of minutes on an up-and-coming Northwestern team. Still, I really don't see how DJ Richardson got the FOY award. I mean, he ranked third in per-possession efficiency among freshmen on his own team! Richardson could shoot threes, but really didn't add anything else while he was on the floor. Teammate Tyler Griffey did have the highest per-possession ranking among freshmen, but didn't get a lot of minutes. Minnesota's Rodney Williams, Michigan State's Derrick Nix, and Indiana's Derek Elston were some of the other freshmen to watch.

Overall, after crunching the numbers, I feel lot more confident about Indiana's ability to win more games next season, about Michigan State's title (national & conference) chances, and Penn State's NIT chances. I also now think Northwestern, Ohio State, and Minnesota are all in a very close group for the final NCAA tourney bids. I'm a lot less sure which of the those three is going to go the NIT than I was before looking over the efficiency statistics.

Allen leaves MSU... BFD? IDK.

2010-08-05T09:46:00.000-07:00

Well, immediately after Chris Allen got booted from the team, the Only Colors and this guy's thoughts about it seemed to be "it's an unfortunate situation, but it'll be good for chemistry." Indeed, he appears to be the first Spartan ever to get the boot from Izzo, a shocking fact in and of itself. So, it's possible that this loss will be an addition through subtraction, I suppose.

However, Allen seemed to play well in the tournament, especially in terms of giving the Spartans some consistent perimeter defense that Korie Lucious and Durrell Summers (or for that matter, Kalin Lucas when he's healthy) don't always seem that interested in. Furthermore, Allen rediscovered his three-point stroke last season, shooting .398 on 133 attempts. No other Spartan was anywhere near that good, and of the returnees only Lucas (.354) and Summers (.358) will cause concern for opposing offenses.

In my way-too-early pre-season rankings, I've been very high on the Spartans. Allen's loss will hurt their rankings- losing an experienced senior with some size and very good offensive rating will do that. Will cost them championships (conference and/or NCAA) or another Final Four berth? I couldn't possibly guess. But here's what I would say to keep an eye on:

1) The freshmen- I've seen a lot of talk along the lines of "McDonald's All-American Keith Appling has to produce immediately." And so it should be- if you're playing in the McDonald's All-American game, you should generally expect to be starting wherever you're playing the next fall. However, freshmen guards tend to also bring turnovers with them, and that's one thing that Izzo doesn't need. Russell Byrd was a very highly ranked 6-7 shooting guard as well that people seem to have forgotten about since he broke his foot last May. With Allen gone, and Byrd coming in with a reputation as a sniper, we may see Byrd getting a lot of minutes, especially if Summers can defend shooting guards.

2) Durell Summers- if Summers really focuses, he has the athletic ability to be a very good defender. He's already a pretty decent shooter, so perhaps Izzo can just have him can pick up where Allen left off. Still, someone else, probably Appling, needs to pick up Summer's role capably.

3) Korie Lucious- if Izzo starts utilizing Lucious more to free up Lucas for shots (the memorable end to the Michigan game comes to mind, where you could tell the wolverines knew what was coming but just were unable to stop Lucas from getting free long enough to hit the game-winning shot), then perhaps it's not such a bad trade-off in the end. MSU might be able to simply out-score opponents in a series of high-octane games. However, I'm sure Izzo is still rather fond of defense, so I imagine this is the last option.

Anyway, it all may be fine. As we can see, Izzo has some options. However, there's now more questions about the team, so we'll need to see some answers before we can consider MSU the 2011 title favorite for the conference or the country.

Coble quits, a BFD... no, seriously

2010-07-29T07:12:00.000-07:00

Lake The Posts has a very good article about the surprising Kevin Coble departure, that in essence, begs him to reconsider over the next couple of months. If you haven't heard, well, I'm surprised that you are even reading this blog, but Coble, after spending his senior year out with a nasty foot injury, has opted for making sure that he can walk again rather than playing basketball for his final year of eligibility. Which isn't unreasonable, and hey, he's been at NU for years, right? Well, read Gary Parrish's take for a nice counter-point that says "if you came to school on scholarship... maybe you should feel some sort of obligation to play?" It's a fair point, but I can see the other side too- he was a good team-player for four years, and that's all that can be asked.
The motivations and timing with this announcement is all weird, though. The NU team is going on a trip to Italy before the season starts. Coble would probably be expected to go, and combine this with the fact that Carmody seems relatively unconcerned that Coble is quitting right now, one wonders if Coble just reacted against pressure to return before he felt ready. Andy Katz's talk with Carmody certainly seems to imply a "get in or get out" vibe to the affair. He's evidently a bit of a loner, and Coble has been rewarded in the national media for walking away from Basketball for putting his family's health before. I can't see Carmody trying to flush out Coble for team chemistry or anything- Thompson, Coble, and Shurna all started together two years ago in one of the better NU seasons. So who knows, maybe this could be temporary, and maybe Carmody even feels like Coble might be back later?

Along with Katz, The Only Colors and John Gasaway suggest that maybe this isn't such a big deal after all. NU returns 6 of their top 7 players from last season's 20-win team, the NCAA's are expanding, and John Shurna took over Kevin Coble's old role at the four-spot quite capably. However...

This is a big deal!
The Big Ten will be every bit as tough as last season, and this puts NU's NCAA hopes as a real question mark. The Wildcats, with Coble, were looking like they would be a solid at-large team. Without him, they simply won't be as good, and here's why:

1) Defense- both Gasaway & TOC touch on this, and as much as I hate to go against them, Coble's loss will be *really* felt here. Why? First, consider that the one starter lost was the one who really made the zone work, Jeremy Nash. Then think about the fact that Coble maintained a very decent block/steal percentage combo throughout his career, in 2009 for example, it was at 2.5% each- good for top 500 ranking on KenPom (which was still not quite as great as his 2007 year- 3.4%/3.5%). For example, in that huge 2009 win at MSU, Coble also snagged four steals. Nash & Coble combined to be very disruptive to opponents offenses in 2009, and that's totally gone now. Second, just two words- defensive rebounding. Off the bench NU has also lost Kyle Rowley, who despite his limited game and PT, was tall, broad, and the best defensive rebounder last season. You might be tempted to look at Coble's rebounding numbers from his last year and compare them to Shurna's in 2009, but don't! I'll explain below. Coble's rebounding numbers his first two years would've put him above Luka Mirkovic (and alongside Peljusic & Curletti) for the best defensive rebounder on last year's team. The reason his percentages fell in 2009...

2) Shurna + Coble = Good things. In 2008, NU was one of the worst teams that ever played in the Big Ten conference. They didn't get a single home win, and their only victory was a narrow escape at a rebuilding Michigan. In 2009, with one game left in the regular season, they were 17-11 and starting to dream of their first NCAA bid. What was the difference? Well, for one, the freshmen. Rowley & Mirkovic brought some height to middle that hadn't been seen in 2008, but I would argue that perhaps even more importantly was John Shurna's ability to start alongside Coble and allow him to stop playing in the paint and start looking for his shot. That fundamentally changed the way Carmody was able to maximize Coble's offensive talents, and that fundamentally changed the team with just a small cost to Coble's defensive numbers. If you doubt that Coble was really playing the three that year, just look at the MSU games. In game 1 at NU, Raymar Morgan was healthy and kept Coble under control in a predictable Spartan victory. In game 2 at MSU, Morgan was not healthy and Coble went for 31 in the NU win. A polished Shurna plus a returning Coble with an experienced center (Mirkovic), a top point guard (Juice Thompson), and young talented wing (Drew Crawford) had NU fans geeked for the coming season. Furthermore, in Big Ten road games, someone always picks up a couple of fouls. It wouldn't have been nearly as bad for NU if Shurna picks up a couple of cheap ones early as long as Coble was around.

3) NU needed Coble's explosiveness as well as his defense- As I hinted above, Shurna isn't as good of a defensive rebounder inside as Coble was in his first two years, and Coble was still posting a quite good defensive rebound percentage as well as solid steal & block percentages even while playing the three-spot. However, when you have a guy capable of dropping 30+ points on the conference's best teams on any given night, that tends to get the opposition's attention. Even when IU had Bracey Wright, Mike Davis' teams could run an offense that essentially ran around Marshall Strickland and DJ White (if only Bracey would wait to get his within the offense, but another that's story). The point is, if you have an explosive scorer AND an offense you're decent at running, then your team can be pretty tough to stop. If you have two explosive scorers- (and Shurna was *almost* there last season) then the defense starts panicking.

I don't know for sure that Coble would've replaced Nash's defense to a point where the defense actually got better for NU next year, but it wasn't an unlikely scenario. I do know for sure that NU would've been a really tough team to stop offensively if Coble and Shurna had been playing together again. Maybe it will be okay, maybe Alex Marcotullio, Jeff Ryan, and even Mike Capocci will bloom with the extra minutes that will result from Coble's absence. Maybe. But it's going to be a whole lot tougher for the Wildcats to finally break into the NCAA tournament.

Quick thoughts & short goodbye

2010-07-20T15:20:00.000-07:00

I watched bits and pieces of the World Cup, rooting for the Oranje after the US went down, but evidently they played like punks in the championship. I guess I'm glad I didn't watch a repeat of Italy versus Brazil '94, but I'm happy that Spain proved a amazingly talented passing team can win it all.

I'm really looking forward to the Hoosier soccer season, I think Yeags'll have the Hoosiers turned around and winning 20 games -regularly- very soon.

Hoosier football and basketball next season... I'm not super-optimistic on either count. Don't get me wrong, I'm hoping for the best, but I'm expecting somewhere around .500 on both counts.

I thought the NBA's "LeDebacle" was best answered by Paul Rudd & Steve Carrell.

I'm going on hiatus with other my sports thoughts, at least in blog format, until my summer classes are over next month, at least. Too much going on for thoughtful(?) ramblings. Feel free to follow my twitter feed instead, altho' sports-commentary has historically been rather small part of commentary there.

World Cup

2010-06-09T10:34:00.000-07:00

I'm as geeked as anyone about the World Cup- and really hoping the ol' US posts a good showing. And they should, despite injuries to Gooch and Charlie Davies.

There's a good "Layman's Guide" on Buzzfeed, for the unfamiliar fan, and the reliable Grant Wahl has a good power ranking run-down.

Me, I'm not so hot on Spain, I only think they'll get to the semi-finals if Italy and Portugal are as washed-up and broken-down as their worst critics charge, so despite the Spaniards' impressive record, I still thinking of them as somewhere around 7th. I think Brazil is more vulnerable than they've been in years past, and I wouldn't be surprised if they get upset in the knockout rounds. However, until proven otherwise, they're still the team to beat in my mind. Who I'll be rooting for is the Netherlands, who have some nice seeding and could have a pretty straight-forward path the World Cup final. In fact, one of the best teams standing in their way will be the Yanks' first-game, England. I think England will be tough, and perhaps even likely to reach the semi-finals, but I doubt they'll be able to win the whole thing. Argentina should be pretty tough, and are my fourth pick for the semi-finals. They'll reach the knockout-rounds no problem, but they've got a lot of tough foes from there on out.

As for the US, I've been impressed by their ability to take a punch. Even in their losses, they've create dangerous chances to steal those games back. I'm a little worried about their defense, but Gooch is rounding into shape and Cherundolo and Bocanegra are good hands, and DeMarcus Beasley might be a surprise starting defender as well. The midfield is pretty solid for defense and counter-attack, but 22-year-old Jose Torres was a revelation against Turkey with his ball-handling and quick passing ability. A guy like that can really open up the field, and we've not had that ability in a while. Dempsey and Donovan are great attackers, and I've got high hopes for Altidore. But if Altidore can't get it done, the US actually has some depth at striker with Herculez Gomez.

As long as the US can hold off England- a one-goal loss wouldn't be catastrophic, even, they would have a great chance to advance by beating Slovenia & Algeria. And if the Yanks can manage a tie against the UK, which is not unreasonable to ask- then a mere tie against Slovenia and a win over Algeria should advance them to the knockout round. If the US is able to top England? Then they've got a chance to make real history, but let's not hold our breath on that just yet.

Go Yanks!

Top 55 for NCAA basketball 2010-2011

2010-05-19T11:31:00.001-07:00

Just a quick why-not list of who I think will be the invited teams in the 2011 college basketball NCAA tournament. As you'll note, I gave the Big Ten, Big East, Big 12, and the ACC conferences all 7 bids each. I also expect Michigan State (if healthy, of course) to make their third Final Four appearance the charm. Anything less should really be a disappointment.

1. Michigan State
2. Duke
3. Purdue
4. Kansas State
5. Pittsburgh
6. Brigham Young
7. Kentucky
8. Villanova
9. Gonzaga
10. Florida
11. Baylor
12. Illinois
13. Butler
14. Missouri
15. Temple
16. Ohio State
17. West Virginia
18. Virginia Tech
19. UNLV
20. Kansas
21. UTEP
22. Washington
23. Utah State
24. Tennessee
25. Virginia Commonwealth

26. Syracuse
27. Wichita State
28. Wisconsin
29. San Diego State
30. Richmond
31. Florida State
32. Northwestern
33. Dayton
34. New Mexico State
35. Clemson
36. Memphis
37. St. John's
38. Georgia
39. North Carolina State
40. Wofford
41. Mississippi
42. Arizona
43. Murray State
44. Colorado
45. Missouri State
46. Old Dominion
47. Akron
48. Texas A&M
49. Boston College
50. UCLA

51. Minnesota
52. Marquette
53. Texas
54. Virginia
55. Louisville

Next season notes

2010-05-12T07:10:00.000-07:00

The biggest news for Indiana basketball is that 7-1 Guy-Marc Michel will be on campus this fall. As with most Juco big men, it'd be prudent to suspect his conditioning, and his ability to hold on to the ball, until we see otherwise. However, this pick-up seems to be in a different category than the Tijan Jobe pick-up. Michel was being recruited by other power-conference teams and appears to have some offensive ability inside, and should be even more helpful on defense. I wouldn't expect him to start, but he could be a reliable bench contributor.

Indiana will play at Boston College in the ACC-Big Ten challenge. That's probably a loss on the road. BC was mediocre last year, but was looking to make a quantum jump forward before coach Al Skinner got inexplicably fired. Now, a couple of key players for the season have transferred, no recruits are coming in, and their NCAA hopes are doubtful again. They are probably a NIT team, but they'll be hosting Indiana- who'll be in the NIT at best.

In the good news department, the Indiana Men Basketball team's GPA for last season was 3.16. At least they were succeeding in the classroom, which has not been a place for Hoosier success in a few years.

Brent Yarina of the Big Ten Network put together a power poll that I basically agree with. I might bump Wisconsin up a spot or two, but I don't feel that strongly about it. IU's ranked 8th, by the way.

A decent thinking-through of next year's top 25 can be found here. I think it's fairly justifiable, but I would put money on Duke not repeating. I think Michigan State is the most likely for national champ next season. However, I do think Ohio State is pretty over-rated here. Matta's great, but he lost point guard options 1,2, and 3, and three-point opportunities will have to come off the passes of a freshman post-player. Look for turnovers to uncharacteriscally hurt OSU next year.

Big Ten BB: 5 Questions for the Offseason

2010-05-05T07:57:00.000-07:00

So, my time isn't exactly free yet, but I'm starting to see a light at the end of the tunnel, so here's some thought I've been pondering this off-season:

1. Purdue- Is Jajuan Johnson returning? I think we can safely assume E'twuan Moore will be back, and there's a nice recruiting class incoming to soften the loss of Chris Kramer and Keaton Grant and bolster the interior depth. However, without Johnson in the middle, Purdue goes from being a national title contender to an also-ran in the Big Ten pretty fast.

2. Illinois- Is Demetri McCamey returning? I'm on record as not being a fan of McCamey's attitude, but he'll likely play in the NBA someday. I think Mike Davis should be back, but McCamey is the drink-stirring straw for the Illini. They won't be Final Four good, but with everyone back and four-star frosh wing Jeremie Richmond, they should be pretty good next season.

3. Penn State- Does Talor Battle return for his senior season? Battle was asked to way too much last season, and his efficiency predictably declined, but he should have almost everyone back and his younger brother Taran Buie to help out next season. I don't know that the defense will improve significantly for PSU, but the offense should improve to where they notch a couple more upsets- if Battle returns.

4. How good are Ohio State's freshmen? I saw Jared Sullinger play for USA, and that kid's got game. He should step into the starting line-up immediately. However, the question now becomes- who plays point? PJ Hill & Jeremie Simmons didn't do a great job of picking the slack at point when Turner was out, and they're both gone now, too. The only true point guard on the roster for next season appears to be freshmen Aaron Craft, who was ranked at #26 in the nation at the position. I'm not saying that's bad, but Buford, Diebler, Lighty, and the host of frosh wings are probably going to be less effective next season without an experienced point to help set them up. Or not- you never know with Matta's clubs.

5. How many teams go to the NCAA's from the Big Ten? I'm guessing seven at this point, because I don't see any other conference projecting as obviously better than the Big Ten at this point. The Big Ten acquitted itself well last season, despite a host of injuries to key players, and now it should have a lot of those players back at full speed (Kevin Coble, Kalin Lucas, Robbie Hummel, Jon Leuer, and Maurice Creek- arguably an all-Big Ten first team). Purdue and MSU should be national title contenders, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Ohio State should locks for the NCAA tourney, and Minnesota should get another bid as well. Northwestern is the real question- I would guess that they'll be better than Minnesota with Coble, Shurna, and Juice Thompson all on the floor with as much depth as Carmody's ever had. But there's little depth behind them in the conference as Penn State & Indiana will be competing for NIT bids, at best, and Michigan and Iowa will likely just be rebuilding themselves in the cellar. And it always seems that one team from the Big Ten (heck, one from every major conference in every year) falls just short of that NCAA bid? Minnesota and Northwestern both need to notch quality wins in the pre-conference schedule, so watch their performances closely next fall.

Late edit: I had assumed Minnesota was definitely getting Al Nolen, Paul Carter, Royce White, and Trevor Mbakwe all back for next season. At this point, none of these players are a sure thing- or even very likely- to return. They've picked up a couple of big recruits in the late signing period, but the Gophers' 2011 NCAA seem a bit long now. It could change, but I'd pencil Northwestern as in and Minnesota as out for the time being.

At least it was a great tournament

2010-04-12T20:46:00.000-07:00

It was a lot of fun.

I don't have a whole lot of time now to run my player efficiency ratings, or go over game-by-game and moment-by-moment the best NCAA tourney I've seen to date (disclaimer- that didn't involved Indiana), but I'll get to all that in a few weeks, after my classes end. Working full-time, family issues, and a heavy course-load is really taking it out of me. I am very thankful that I got to watch a good deal of NCAA basketball, because I hadn't gotten a chance in ages to do so.

I was a little surprised that a number of MSU fans (not my faves SpartyMSU or KJ of TOC, of course) were grousing about the rough play that Butler was allowed to get away with versus their team- even to the point of rooting for Duke. Say huh? You should be proud that your injured team did so well, and not complain about another team being too rough for you. MSU has done very well under Izzo by getting tough, so it seems sorta unbecoming to start complaining about fouls now. And c'mon, rooting for Duke? No self-respecting college basketball fans born or matriculating outside of North Carolina should ever find themselves rooting for Duke. Really, now.

I'm breathing a sigh of relief for the moment about the Hoosiers. They don't appear to be purging like Iowa, or threatened by NBA departures like Michigan (Manny Harris), Purdue (JaJuan Johnson), Illinois (Demetri McCamey), and possibly Michigan State. Let's hope for a little good news this offseason.

Go Butler, go!

2010-04-05T09:41:00.000-07:00

When the first thing I see in the morning is the All-East coast ESPN team picking Duke, Duke, Duke for the win tonight, I can't help but really start rooting for Butler.
C'mon, Bulldogs- beat the Devils.

Hola, amigos

2010-04-02T14:43:00.000-07:00

Been a while, I know. Life is getting in the way of obsessing over college hoops. Never thought I'd see the day.

I was incredibly satisfied to West Virginia beat down Kentucky, Michigan State return to the Final Four, and to witness Butler's stunning run. I'm not sure who I'll be rooting for on Saturday. Obviously, like all decent people, I'll be rooting against Duke, but MSU-Butler? Tough call, I like Butler's small-school moxie, but how can a Big Ten fan not love the thrilling wins that Izzo's hobbled club is stringing together?

This has been truly a great tournament to watch, the most enjoyable in years.

NCAA tourney madness

2010-03-15T07:12:00.000-07:00

1) The Big Ten got kinda hosed with their draws. The two teams that have the best chance of making the final four (MSU & OSU) are Kansas' bracket. Ouch. And even 'though Illinois pretty clearly played themselves out of the Big Dance, having Minnesota in the field instead probably means having another first-round loss. I hope I'm wrong. Wisconsin has a relatively good draw, but they've been such historically poor performers in the tourney, that it's hard to be confident about their chances.

2) I only correctly predicted a little more than half of the NCAA tourney bids (34). Fifteen other teams in the NCAA tournament I had predicted as NIT or sleeper/CBI teams (Georgetown & Wisconsin being my most under-estimated teams), and sixteen teams I totally whiffed on. Most of those were automatic-bid winners, but I really should have known better about Baylor, New Mexico, and Temple. Marquette still surprises me, 'though, I just can't believe that they're this good.

3) I also whiffed on 12 of the 32 NIT teams, and 6 of 16 CBI teams, making for a grand total 34 overlooked teams. Mei Culpas to come later, but I've got brackets to study and get terribly wrong for now. In the meantime, Go Big Ten!

And that's a season in the books

2010-03-12T08:44:00.000-08:00

For better or worse, the 2009-2010 Hoosier basketball season is over. And it was pretty painful. And honestly, IU was a mediocre team in a very good conference. Pomeroy has us ranked at #175 for the year, and I'd say that's about correct. I didn't expect us to be worse than Iowa, but also didn't expect us to win at Penn State. There were a couple of nice wins against Pitt & Minnesota to show that the Hoosiers were dangerous, but the losses to George Mason & Boston U., along with an 11-game slide in conference play demonstrate the Hoosiers were mostly dangerous to themselves. But there's hope for next season. Maurice Creek & Matt Roth return from injuries, and the Hoosiers usually had four freshman and a sophomore on the floor at the end of year.

I thought the Hoosiers would at least double their wins from last season, and I guess technically they did as the 2008-2009 squad only had 5 D-I victories. Devan Dumes and Tijan Jobe are out of eligibility, and I appreciate their work and effort for the Hoosiers in a dark time. Good luck to them in the future. But Crean will have seven sophomores next season (Creek, Watford, Elston, Capobianco, Hulls, Muniru, and Roth), three juniors (Jones, Pritchard, and Moore), along with the sole senior Rivers and at least two freshmen (Oladipo & Sheehey, any contributions at all next season will just be gravy). Creek won't be all the way back, but even an 80% presence of his on the wing will help considerably. At least four sophomores should start. Maturation and considerable improvement should be expected- probably not a NCAA-tourney bid, but getting to a winning record should be a minimum.

Point guard may be question, but that's a discussion for the offseason. It was a rough year, but thanks, Hoosiers. Now, go work hard for a better tomorrow.

Hoosiers finally notch a win, BTT

2010-03-10T06:41:00.000-08:00

The Hoosiers actually won a game, snapping a ten-game losing streak by beating Northwestern in OT at home. Sophomore Verdell Jones and four freshman (notably Jordan Hulls with 8 threes and Derek Elston with a double-double) carried the day. Again demonstrating an inability to finish, the Hoosiers turned it over four times and missed the front end of a one-and-one on their last possession, but NU was only able to force OT, where the Hoosiers rallied.

So, what's next for IU's young players? The Big Ten Tourney, and short of winning the whole thing, an offseason of weights and training. There's been some frustration felt by fans that Crean wasn't doing enough and youth wasn't an excuse, but I just looked at the KenPom page on IU and saw a category I hadn't noticed before: experience. Indiana, with an average experience level of 0.88 years, ranks 336 in the country in that category. There are 347 D-I teams total, and several of those are new to the division this year. Given that, and that the Hoosiers also lost their best freshman (heck, player) before the conference season, I think some patience is called for. I'd love to see the Hoosiers get one more banger inside for next year, but I'm optimistic about how the Hoosiers will improve next year, and the year after that.

As for the Big Ten tourney, I'm thinking NU's gonna be ready to get even with the Hoosiers on Thursday. Historically, NU is also 3-1 as a higher seed in the tourney.
Honestly, I think Northwestern is a pretty good sleeper team in the tourney, as they'll then face a Purdue tjavascript:void(0)eam sans Hummel, and possibly a Michigan State team that will be without Chris Allen, who should get by Minnesota just by virtue of their far superior rebounding. If Northwestern should happen to advance to the Big Ten Tourney final, that's as far as they go- I don't see anyone touching Ohio State unless Wisconsin gets lucky in the semifinals. But, I'll throw out my wild prediction for fun: OSU>NU for the tourney crown.

What is it with the Big Ten & injuries this season?

2010-02-27T09:25:00.000-08:00

Purdue now joins Indiana, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State, and Wisconsin with the unfortunate news that Robbie Hummel is out for the year. All six (SIX!- over half the league) has now gotten the news that their best player will be on the bench for a significant amount of conference play. Of course, Indiana and NU's losses were for the whole conference slate, while Ohio State, Michigan State, and Wisconsin now have their players back.

Still, I've never seen anything like this in 20 years of watching league play. Certainly, in the post-PSU era, this has got to be a record. Speaking of expansion, I still think Missouri is the best choice for team #12, but I wouldn't oppose Pitt, I suppose. I just don't think Pitt is going to happen. But, you know, whatever. I'm happy enough with the teams the Big Ten already has. I just wish Indiana was playing better.

John Gasaway tweeted that Wisconsin beat IU with a .47 per-possession Efficiency Margin advantage this season. Bo Ryan has us solved, and did last year too. I suspect the EM in last year's match-ups was pretty brutal too. I do like that Crean got himself tossed, and I hope the Hoosiers respond in their next few games. They've got some opportunities on the schedule to snap out of their funk, let's hope it happens.

Time for a rally!

2010-02-24T09:10:00.000-08:00

I'm feeling the wheels spinning, and the IU men's basketball team cannot get un-mired from its lack of momentum. It's been a rough stretch, facing three Final Four contenders at home, and facing four NCAA hopefuls on the road. That flat loss to Iowa came at exactly the wrong time, though. I've been contending that IU will snap out of it and split their last four games, but they really need to find a spark to be able to do that and build any momentum going into next season. I gotta say, I've been particularly frustrated with Jones & Watford just displaying some bad defense at times, but staying on the floor. Give 'em the hook if they won't move their feet, coach. We're losing anyway.

It looks like Jordan Hulls may have the inside track to starting at point next year, as Crean's evidently now contending that his lead guards have to be able to hit the three, and Rivers just can't shoot outside of 15 feet. IU is courting late riser 6-9 Moses Abraham, who is every bit the bruiser and shot-blocker that the Hoosiers so desperately need in the middle. A lot of other good programs are recruiting him too, so let's hope the promise of possible instant PT lures him to Bton. Pritch, Elston, and Capobianco are all trying, but right now they look like either overmatched forwards or just better as bench players. Off the bench, I've always like Elston's aggressiveness, but Capo has some good defensive instincts and and can really give the offense a boost with his passing and threes. But for the second straight year, IU is in the top ten of getting their shots swatted. Let that sink in.

On the bright side: USA-USA-USA!
That USA-Canada hockey game was amazing, and was everything I love about sports. The underdog hustling on every play and springing the upset by inches. Well done, Yanks!

Best rejoinder from north of the border: "I can't hear you over my healthcare benefits." As rates jump 30% this year, that one's going to keep stinging.

Endless February Mondays

2010-02-11T13:28:00.001-08:00

My wife just asked me "Doesn't it feel like Friday?" and I answered "I don't know what day it feels like." But that's not true. It feels like today is Monday, tomorrow will be Monday, and the day after that will be Monday.... ad infinitum.

You could take this to mean that this long-time Hoosier fan is getting dispirited about the current streak of bad news for Indiana teams. But no, not really- without getting too personal, I just feel like I've got an endless amount of things to think about, prepare for, and accomplish academically, professionally, and personally. And the massive snowstorm making the Midwest a snowy hellscape isn't unusual for February (especially in an El Nino year), it's not like it's putting a spring in my step either. Good news from sports usually cheers me up and bad news brings me down, but I actually haven't even been able to get really bummed by the young Hoosier's losing streak (the last vs. four NCAA-worthy teams) or the Colts' loss in the Superbowl (hey, they made it there)- really, what's to complain about?

I know some of you Indiana loyalists are probably getting down, and unfortunately the remaining schedule suggests that IU basketball games probably will not bring you a lot of cheer, but 1) you're not alone and 2) look to the future. I really think Verdell Jones is a leader in the making and Christian Watford and Maurice Creek will give the Hoosiers a nice 1-2-3 next year. And if any of you care about IU soccer, Todd Yeagley just brought in another good recruiting class. I'm actually pretty interested to see how Todd does with this class and Freitag's starters next fall.

In the meantime, there's plenty else to think about in life. Like... oh crud, Valentine's day is this weekend- I gotta go!

Beat Purdue

2010-02-04T09:34:00.001-08:00

Hey, young Hoosiers. You want to know one good way to build national recognition and create a buzz around the program to lure in new recruits?

Beat a Final Four contender* in a nationally televised game in a rocking Assembly Hall.

It's as simple as that. These young Hoosiers have played well at times, but they need to do a very good job of all things that they've either done very well or very poorly: rebounding, not turning the ball over, and just plain ol' shooting the ball.

The Hoosiers are a dangerous team, to themselves as well as others. Let's hope they're really dangerous to Purdue tonight. It'd be a great momentum-builder, and of course, just lovely to see Purdue lose. They won't go down easy, but it'd be great to see.

Go Hoosiers!

*Anyone who doesn't think Purdue isn't a Final Four contender this season didn't see them absolutely dismantle West Virginia. That was impressive.

Won't be watching the Superbowl

2010-02-01T07:06:00.001-08:00

or seeing Indiana play at Northwestern next Sunday like I had planned on. I'm not boycotting because of the distasteful Tebow affair, and I won't pretend to do so, but really- the Superbowl should've stayed consistent in its political stance. Anyway, I love sports, but it will always come in second to the rest of my life, which is why I also missed the Illinois-Indiana game, which was evidently a really exciting game that McCamey won with a buzzer-beating drive to the hoop.

It is good to see Indiana competing on the road, and starting to figure some things out. I watched a bit of the Iowa game on the DVR, and the Hoosiers did get off to a slow start, but the crowd didn't get taken out of it by the Colts' game- you could hear the air go out of them when Iowa got offensive rebound after offensive rebound. Indiana just could not get a stop unless the Hawkeyes turned it over, and you could see that just sucking the life out of the crowd. So, Crean's diagnosis of "they wanted it more" was essentially correct. That's something he can work with. This team is probably too young to get called out (at least in the locker room) for not playing better against less-talented competition. I mean no disrespect to Iowa here, they had a nice win at IU, they play hard, but really, I think even BHGP would agree- Indiana has better athletes, and should've had a better showing against the Hawkeyes.

In this game (as in others), Derek Elston did some nice things, and was really the only guy on the floor showing some toughness on the glass and a killer instinct on the attack. He was just unlucky on that lay-up that rolled into a stuck position. He could get more minutes, but he's still kinda careless with ball. I actually don't blame Crean for limiting his minutes this year, but I am curious to see more of this big line-up we've been promised. I think once he gets his turnovers down, we could be looking at a new "Citizen Pain."

And finally, let me join the chorus online that tells the Crean doubters to sit down for a year. You're coming off like a bunch of henny-pennys. Crean just needs some time- no other program since Baylor in 2003 has seen such a blow-up of their program. And Baylor didn't get above 4 conference wins until year 5, when a sleeper freshman named LaceDarius Dunn led the to the NCAA's. Currently, without landing any sleepers or surprise JuCos, I would guess that the Hoosiers are on track to be a NIT squad next season (possible NCAA bubble team) and a solid NCAA team in 2011-2012, year 4, with a strong junior class. One of the reasons I would say IU is a NIT team next year is I do expect to see significant improvement out of Watford, Elston, Capobianco, & Hulls next season, and having Maurice Creek back will help, although he almost certainly won't be 100% until very late next season. Verdell Jones, Jeremiah Rivers, and Matt Roth will all be valuable pieces, and if Tom Pritchard ever gets his confidence back- which will take some work by his teammates- you should see an IU club much closer to .500 in conference and with a winning overall record.

DVR notes: McCamey and Coverdale

2010-01-26T18:40:00.000-08:00

Finally caught up and watched a few games that've been sitting on my DVR. Notably, I managed to watch the Illinois game in full. And Illinois did truly push their way to victory in the second half, being the far more physically aggressive and yet still managing a 21 free-throw-attempts advantage. I'm not here to criticize the refs in general, as Indiana made a lot of silly errors and just lacked composure down the stretch, But boy, that McCamey kid came off like a real jerk. He & Hulls dive for a ball, looks like a completely clean tussle on the floor before McCamey gets the time-out, and then Hulls extends his hand to help McCamey up and McCamey gives him a really good push while having some choice words for Jordy. Sure, maybe Hulls was a little naive, but if it had been the other way around, with Hulls pushing McCamey- I'm pretty sure Hulls would've gotten a technical. And don't give me that old chestnut about bad blood because of the Gordon situation argument- McCamey wouldn't be at Illinois if it weren't for Gordon's departure. He's got no reason to hate on Hulls and the Hoosiers, other than Weber's petulant poisoning.

Anyway, the game at Illinois is coming up, and I'd be surprised if Indiana pulled off the upset, but I'd also be surprised if they're as flat as they were to open the Iowa game. I suspect that a few key Indiana players will pick up a several fouls when they check-in, and it'll be a scrappy loss for the Hoosiers. But who knows, maybe they get that win back. Maybe.

I watched the Iowa at Indiana game from 2003, and man, I miss Tom Coverdale. Also, Indiana got whistled for a lot of fouls in the Mike Davis era. Crean does a better job of working the refs to this point, but so did Sampson I suppose. Really, I liked Mike Davis and loved rooting for his teams, but the obvious lack of development that his players exhibited over their careers made him the coach of UAB. Where he's doing quite okay at now, and good luck to him. But back to the positive, Coverdale was just a joy to watch- not in the same way I enjoyed the grace of Cal Cheaney or that I currently the acrobatic hustle of Jeremiah Rivers, certainly. But that dogged determined look that Cov would get as the clock ran down, and he'd survey the defense and take something from them. He wouldn't just take what the defense gave him, he'd make them pay for laying off him as he stuck the three, or for stepping on him as he'd get into the lane, or even for playing him straight up while whisking a pass into the post for Jeffries or Newton to finish. Occasionally, he'd even break down the defense with a little ball-handling and a step-back fadeaway. Last I heard, he was an assistant coach for Louisiana-Monroe, but I always remember him as the unlikely assassin who brought fear into the eyes of Big Ten opponents. Good luck, Tom, wherever you are.

Well, I guess that question is answered

2010-01-24T18:19:00.000-08:00

Hoosiers stink it up against Hawkeyes, allowing Iowa 17 offensive rebounds while pulling down just 12 defensive. Hoosiers did force 20 turnovers, but couldn't take advantage on the offensive end to keep themselves in the game, shooting 35% overall and 0-for-9 from three-point land.

Ouch. Iowa beats us at home. I'm calling the Hoosiers to get redeem themselves at Iowa, tho. Still, this hurts.

It's a darn good thing the Colts beat the Jets today and are back in the Superbowl. Hoosiers everywhere can concentrate on Pro football for a couple of weeks.

Notes and Individual Player Ratings

2010-01-23T06:36:00.000-08:00

John Gasaway notes that five major conferences now have rebounding percentage included in their stats. Not the Big Ten, however! So, c'mon, Big Ten, catch up to your fans already!

Indiana took down Penn State on the road for their conference first road win in the Crean era. Now, they've got a new challenge- playing well against a team they should beat after winning a couple of good games. They didn't fare well against Loyola earlier this season in similar circumstances, and Loyola's a lot worse than Iowa.

As promised, I have the school-by-school reviews of my individual player ratings, along with a top ten & "freshman fifteen" list up at my other blog.

Dancing Bear or Hummelin' Rob?

2010-01-21T17:51:00.000-08:00

Who's the better player? It's hard to say, but I'd give the early edge to Draymond Green. I ran the early per-possession effectiveness numbers for the Big Ten so far, and while Rob Hummel 32.3 per-game rating is far and away the best, Draymond Green is a level above on the per-possession ratings (.6576 to Hummel's .5529). I'll run down some top tens and school-by-school thoughts shortly, but check out the report here.

Also, some good reading on per-possession efficiency margin in college basketball can be found here.

And I'd like to congratulate John Trask on landing the men's Soccer head coaching job at Wisconsin. It doesn't seem that long ago that he was asking me if I could throw the ball in "like a man?" Actually, scratch that, that was a long time ago.

And finally, I know that Penn State is just having an awful season, but I gotta say: First Big Ten Road Win! It's not much, but it's a hurdle that I wasn't sure these Hoosiers would surpass this season. Good stuff.

Reassuring win

2010-01-18T06:39:00.000-08:00

The Hoosiers can win the close ones, and have the toughness to come back in overtime. That's actually quite reassuring as we watch the new incarnation start to figure out its identity. Minnesota and Michigan are solid teams (kudos to Michigan for beating UConn) and the Hoosiers notched wins at home over the both of them, doubling their conference win total for last season. Minnesota was a pretty good team, too, ranked #20 in KenPom and #53 in Sagarin, but still, rushing the court probably was not necessary. I understand the sentiment, 'though, when you're there wondering if IU has actually turned a corner or not and they come through against a good team- it's probably just an overwhelming emotional feeling to experience the win like that for maybe the first time in your college career. However, y'all got it out of the way, okay? Let's have no more of that, unless it's a buzzer-beater-over-the-#1-team situation.

Verdell Jones looks like he's having fun in the clutch out there, hitting a couple of huge long jumpers with guys in his face. The interior play is getting better too, as last year Minnesota stuffed the IU players over and over again down low, and last night Watford and Pritchard combined for 23 points and 16 rebounds (& 6 turnovers, tho). Additionally, Elston and Capobianco actually had pretty decent games, efficiency-wise, even if they didn't score very much. Rivers stuffs the stat sheet, but still has problems shooting, while Hulls shot well & Dumes shot okay, but neither added too much else, stat-wise. Hulls did have 4 assists to only one turnover, tho- which is pretty darn good against Minnesota- but he did throw a pass to Al Nolen with the score tied and 8 seconds left. The rotation looks pretty good, but you can tell by Moore's presence that the Hoosiers are one guard short. Next year, they'll have Creek back and a couple of frosh wings, but this year it's still a little thin.

This win is reassuring that Hoosiers are on the way back up, and you can see that KenPom's projections for IU's conference record have been raised to 5-13, from the 2-14 projection after the non-conference schedule ended. However, the two most winnable games remaining on the schedule are coming up, away at Penn State and home vs. Iowa, so the Hoosiers can't lose focus.

Not as terrible as it seemed

2010-01-15T06:52:00.001-08:00

As dispiriting as that final five minutes were, IU's loss at Michigan actually showed considerable progress from the road loss at Ohio State. I didn't expect the Hoosiers to win this game, but Michigan's been uneven enough I was hoping to that IU would hang around for the game & make a run, and who knows- maybe get lucky. Well, the first part of that came true- Indiana did work their tails off despite poor shooting and hang around until late in the game, and then a run was made. Unfortunately, it was Manny Harris getting hot and making the run for Michigan.

Indiana played good defense until the very end, with Capobianco & Pritchard mixing it up in the paint, and that helped Verdell Jones, Christian Watford, and Jordan Hulls to track down rebounds and loose balls. Jones had 10 rebounds, but shot a miserable 3 of 14 from the field, with 4 turnovers. One wonders why Dumes isn't getting a few more minutes, as he and Hulls actually seemed to handle the pressure pretty well in the first half, and Jones confirmed to everyone that his game isn't shooting from the corner (0-5 on threes). And Rivers followed up my praise in his abilities with a pretty poor game, I thought. He is credited with one turnover, but that shot-clock violation was his fault, and he bogged down the offense at times. On one occasion, he gave the ball to Pritchard on the block, ran back out to the three-point line and called for the ball back. Pritch was actually scoring in this game, I would've given the kid the green light and let him go to work. Really, the only two IU players to have decent offensive games were Watford & Pritchard, and they still coughed up the ball 6 times. Watford was impressive at times, as the Wolverines really couldn't handle him. Unfortunately, he's still a freshman, so he's still quite a ways from maximizing his effectiveness. And despite the good defense, I could still see some occasionally n00b mistakes on that end, but these Hoosiers are improving, which is odd to say after a 20-point loss.

Kudos to the Wolverines, who look to finally be turning their season around. It may be too late to get the NCAA's, but I wish them the best in their games now that the Hoosiers don't have to play them.

Indiana visits Michigan

2010-01-14T14:17:00.000-08:00

...and will be a long shot. Even though Indiana won ever so recently, the margin for error was pretty narrow, and the Hoosiers showed at OSU that they're not quite used to the harsh lights of other Big Ten arenas. But we'll get a glimpse of how fast they learn, at least against a team that we all now know they can beat. Michigan has played much better recently, despite a late-game collapse at home against Northwestern which should ensure they'll be pumped to play to the Hoosiers, they knocked off Ohio State (who now looks unstoppable) and beat Penn State on the road. But that's nothing compared to how Pittsburgh has played since the Hoosiers beat the Panthers on a neutral floor. With Dixon back up to speed and Gilbert Brown back on the court, it seems that the Hoosiers might have a hard time replicating that feat. Pitt is undefeated in the Big East, winning at Syracuse, Cincinnati, and most recently at UConn.

Still, the Hoosiers are a dangerous team, if to themselves most of all. They've definitely improved from last year, but the turnover rate has got to come down, significantly.

It looks like center Greg Echenique has chosen Creighton for his next destination. It's too bad, the Hoosiers really need a shot-blocker and glass-eater inside. But maybe the interior play will be addressed if Crean actually starts going big with Elston & Watford in the line-up. It'd be nice to see some variation at least.

Familiar refrain

2010-01-11T13:48:00.000-08:00

The Hoosiers have the talent, but the not the maturity to put these kind of games (Illinois) away.

I'm coming around on starting Hulls, as he's getting comfortable and has a really low turnover percentage out there. It's also nice to have three point guards on the floor at the same time. However, with Pritchard and Watford seemingly overmatched inside and unable to finish, the straw that really stirs Indiana's drink is Rivers. Jones has his moments, but has never really been a take-the-game-over kind of guy. Rivers can shake backcourt pressure, get into the paint on any defense, and make nice passes... or turn it over, or get fouled and miss the freebies. He's the make-or-break guy this season. Rivers is getting derided for being a poor point guard, but this is first go-round at this position, in this conference, and he has my sympathy. I saw some improvement in him over the non-conference schedule, and I hope to see some more in conference play as well.

I don't fault Watford for missing the free-throw at the end, I mean, it did probably cost the Hoosiers the game, but I've been watching IU basketball for nearly 20 years and it is the rare player who could step at the end of a physical game and coolly drain the front end of a one-and-one. AJ Moye, Michael Lewis, Brian Evans... and that's about it. I don't expect a freshman to have that sort of poise. This year is just going to be tough, as the Hoosiers have to take some lumps while learning how to win. It doesn't just happen after a couple of games.

The good news is that IU is now a contender for 6-9 center Greg Echenique. Check out his stats from last season, where he was a good rebounder and shot-blocker (as good or better than anyone we have now) and got to the line with regularity, hitting 67% of them in his first college season. If the Hoosiers land him (and he's eligible for next season), with Creek back they could be in the NCAA tourney in March 2011.

What is to be said?

2010-01-08T09:49:00.000-08:00

The crushing loss at OSU wasn't necessarily to be expected, but isn't really surprising. It's sort of amazing that this team really is, for all intents and purposes, a freshmen team following good wins (Pitt, Michigan) with really bad losses (Loyola, OSU). It brings to mind a question of "what the heck were the Hoosiers last year, if *this* is a freshman team?" I guess that's easy enough, last year was the year of the walk-on. But turning the ball on every third possession... unbelievable.

Like it or not, we've got a bunch of freshman as the core of this team, and they've got a lot of learning to do. It was a sophomore -Verdell Jones- who seemed to be the only one able to do anything on the road, and another -Daniel Moore- actually did a decent job off the bench. It's going to be a long season on the road for these guys- I think a good goal is just to get their first conference road win.

Tiresome-X-player(s)-should-play-more-rant
I'm not sure about starting Hulls, by the way, it seemed like he was better coming off the bench to settle things down if Rivers was off. And maybe Dumes will respond positively to a little trust. But more to the point, I know Dumes isn't that efficient, but he's one of the better defenders on the team (no other guards are really able to come back to the paint and make strips like he does), and it would be better to have that defense out there at the start of games. And if he's not playing well, Hulls can come in for him or Rivers. This is not to denigrate Hulls, he should be getting starting minutes, but he can do that as first guard off the bench.

Elston should be getting up quicker from the bench, too, I think. When Watford is having an off-game, it shows up pretty quickly. Elston isn't better overall than Watford really, but he is more efficient on offense and is a lot better on the offensive glass. He could used a good pick-me-up when after Watford throws the ball away a couple of times.

Anyhoo, I'm looking forward to the Illinois game. It'll be a tough match-up, but I think the Hoosiers can take them at home... if they play smart.

Next up, @OSU!

2010-01-05T07:58:00.000-08:00

If the Hoosiers spring an upset on the road against the sinking Buckeyes, expect to see a lot of ink about the IU freshmen maturing early, etc. I don't expect it to happen, and I don't expect Evan Turner to play (although he does, even at half-strength, the Hoosiers are cooked).

I really think Matta will have his crew pumped to beat the Hoosiers, because OSU just got handed a disappointing loss from a disappointing Michigan team after getting stomped at Wisconsin. The next two games following the IU game are at Minnesota and at Purdue, with a home game against Wisconsin following. Lose the home match to Indiana, and an 0-6 start to the Big Ten is a real possibility for Matta's club. Expect Dallas Lauderdale to control the paint and Lighty & Buford to feast in transition on Hoosier turnovers. The Hoosiers are a dangerous team, but so far have often lacked the composure so necessary to win conference road games.

What I would like to see is the Hoosiers compete, not give up easy buckets and hit the defensive glass with some purpose. It'll be an uphill battle, but they can put themselves in a position to get lucky if they can draw even on turnovers and win rebounds and loose balls.

All-Inactive

2010-01-02T08:31:00.000-08:00

Big Ten Geeks mentioned that the Big Ten has a pretty good all-inactive team, so I thought I'd make fill out the second-team as well:

Kevin Coble (NU)
Evan Turner (OSU)
Royce White (Minn.)
Maurice Creek (Ind)
Lewis Jackson (PU)

Trevor Mbakwe (Minn.)
Jeff Ryan (NU)
Ben Cronin (Mich)
Matt Roth (IU)
Anthony Tucker (Iowa)

Anybody missing?

Alex Legion & Walter Offutt recently transferred, but they'd not really contributed very much to this point for their teams- so, no big. That first five alone should be a lock for the NCAA's all by themselves. Throw in a decent center and this is a ranked team, possibly a final four contender.

Anyway, Tucker, Mbakwe, and Cronin may not be back ever, and while Turner and White are practicing again, the rest are likely out for the year. The Big Ten is still quite good, but there's a few reasons why it's not quite as good as expected. The upside is, the conference should be pretty strong again next season.

Atop the Big Ten

2010-01-01T09:44:00.001-08:00

For one game at least. The Michigan game was a precious salve for the missteps since the first half of the Kentucky game. The crushing return to reality of the second half, the step backwards versus Loyola, the loss of Maurice Creek for the year... all washed away by a gutty quality win. Sure, Michigan has had a bad season so far, but if Novak & Douglass have finally snapped out of their funks, it's only a matter of time before they start notching quality wins. Unfortunately, it may be too late for the Wolverines to go dancing again. But I'm concentrating on Indiana here.

Jeremiah Rivers wasn't a threat offensively, but he got the Hoosiers into their offense and played an amazing defensive game, holding Manny Harris in check and helping out in the paint. Verdell Jones did a great job of being the playmaker, scoring from the outside and posting up, and throwing some amazing passes. Jordan Hulls got the start, and showed a nice shooting touch even though the threes weren't falling. But his poise while shooting free-throws were amazing. Hulls and Dumes took over the role of outside shooter nicely, while Jones and Watford stepped up their scoring. Watford did a nice job scoring and drawing fouls, but I'm still concerned about the lack of rebounding- only three boards in 27 minutes? Pritchard and Elston didn't have great stat lines, but they had energy and mixed it up inside, giving Rivers and Jones the opportunity to secure boards. It was also good to see Dumes in his element, adding some instant offense and making plays defensively. He had a couple of strips down low that were just magnificent (and will probably called fouls on the road- clean or not).

Indiana isn't likely to get to .500 in the conference this season, but they'll likely to stay out of the cellar and be well positioned to move forward next season. Progress- good to see on New Year's.

Have a good one, folks!

Oh, Come on now!

2009-12-29T07:07:00.000-08:00

Maurice Creek- frontrunner for Big Ten Freshman of the Year is out for the season with a knee injury, suffered in the IU's blowout win over Bryant. I'm sure OSU fans were mad when POY frontrunner Evan Turner went down with an injury, but at least he's coming back this season. IU now enters Big Ten play without their best player.

Unbelievable.

Pre-Conference Power Poll

2009-12-28T09:28:00.000-08:00

1. Purdue (11-0)
They're undefeated, have beaten solid Tennessee and Wake Forest squads, and deserve the respect for the top spot. However, they've only played one true road game (at NIT-likely Alabama) and they don't have what one would call "reliable depth." DJ Byrd and Kesley Barlow are making reasonable contributions for freshmen, but if Hummel & Johnson ever get into foul trouble, the Boilers are in deep trouble. The upcoming West Virginia game should be very interesting, and should offer some clues to what extent the Boilers are Final Four threat.

Predicted conference finish: 14-4

2. Michigan State (9-3)
Don't get me wrong, all respect to Izzo and the gang green, but they're just not the team they were last year. I warned earlier that losing their best two defenders was going to hurt, and it pretty obviously is. Green & Roe are great inside, but they're both power forwards, and Lucas and Morgan are as good as anyone in the conference at their positions, but Lucas needs help defending on the perimeter. Chris Allen also seems to have recovered his touch, but even so, the only really solid win the Sparties have is over Gonzaga, so they have yet to really prove themselves.

Predicted conference finish: 13-5

3. Wisconsin (10-2)
I don't why- I knew better, but I underestimated Bo Ryan. No disrespect to Izzo and the rest of the coaches, but Ryan is simply the best coach in the conference. Still, I don't expect the Badgers to go far in the conference or NCAA tourneys, as I think they're playing at about the best they can right now. But still, being third in the conference and looking like a lock for the NCAA tourney is just amazing considering who they've lost over the last couple of years. And that win over Duke that secured the Challenge is a classic.

Predicted conference finish: 11-7

4. Ohio State (10-2)
With Evan Turner, this team is incredibly dangerous. Without him, they should putter along with falling off the NCAA bubble. Luckily, they'll get him back in time for the stretch run, so they should be a much better team in March than they will be for most of conference play. Look for the Buckeyes to hover around .500 until they get Turner back. And hey, why is Jeremie Simmons playing so little (17min./game)? I don't know what else the young man can do- shooting 51% from three and 58% overall, while recording 18 assists to 8 turnovers and picking up 9 steals. Even Diebler's only shooting 48% beyond the arc.

Predicted conference finish: 11-7

5. Minnesota (9-3)
It's not that they're doing poorly, but they're 1-3 versus NCAA-possible teams. The good news is that Rodney Williams is a solid freshman, Hoffarber is shooting well again, Devron Bostick is back and playing well, and Tubby found a small-ball line-up that seems to be working. The bad news is that this still seems like a team that's solid, but not scary. I would think Ralph Sampson and Paul Carter could be featured a little more in the half-court offense, but what am I going to tell Tubby?

Predicted conference finish: 10-8

6. Northwestern (10-1)
The Wildcats in the NCAA's without Kevin Coble? It could happen. But, even though they're 10-1, the best wins have come against teams which are probably NIT-level. The conference schedule is favorable enough, but their low strength-of-schedule RPI might require a win or two in the Big Ten Tourney to get punch the ticket to the Big Dance. Shurna, Thompson, and Nash have all stepped up nicely, but the big surprise here is how good the freshmen guards (Crawford & Marcotullio) are. I did expect a little more from center Luka Mirkovic this year, but maybe he's just a slow starter.

Predicted conference finish: 10-8

7. Illinois (8-4)
Good wins over Vandy and at Clemson may ensure a NCAA bid as long as the Illini finish over .500 in conference play, but bad losses to Utah, Bradley, Missouri, and at Georgia call into question the Illini's ability to do that. While McCamey has taken over point very well and Tisdale has improved in the post, UIUC still relies very heavily on their frosh wings who have been a little uneven at this point. I wouldn't be surprised to see McCamey's minutes and shots skyrocket in conference play.

Predicted conference finish: 10-8

8. Michigan (6-5)
The Wolverines are suffering through a pretty big let-down, and it's tough to remember that just two seasons ago they were considered a likely last-place team in the Big Ten. And just having things fall out the right way against Northwestern and Indiana ensured that they made into the NCAA tourney last season. So, the expectations have risen pretty high pretty fast, and returning the stars DeShawn Sims and Manny Harris along with last year's freshmen starters and a seemingly good 2009 recruiting class blew the expectations thru the roof. I will say that I expect Michigan to rebound in conference play and be competitive, but I don't think they'll get the bounces they did last season.

Predicted conference finish: 7-11

9. Penn State (8-4)
Tim Frazier appears to be the replacement for Stanley Pringle, and fellow frosh Bill Edwards looks very much like a possible stand-in for Jamelle Cornley. However, neither of these players is completely ready for the load that the Cornley and Pringle carried. Brooks, Babb, and especially David Jackson are pitching in a bit, but Talor Battle is really going to find life rougher in conference play this season. It's not that the Nittany Lions are terribly worse than they were last season, but it's going to be pretty touch-and-go as to whether they finish over .500 overall.

Predicted conference finish: 6-12

10. Indiana (5-6)
The Hoosiers are a whole different team from last year, and I'm pretty certain they'll win more than the Kenpom-predicted 2 conference games. However, while IU had a nice over Pitt, they have had a number of really bad losses (Boston, GMU, Loyola-MD). These are all games that the Hoosiers could have, and should have won, but just didn't have the maturity to see it through. The Hoosiers will have a few games where they put it all together and surprise some teams, but they'll also have some games where they suffer some really ugly losses. If Tom Pritchard starts getting his confidence, and the ball, that will definitely help, but it should be a roller-coaster of a conference season for Hoosier fans.

Predicted conference finish: 5-13

11. Iowa (5-7)
There's a couple of bright spots here, as freshmen Eric May and Brennan Cougill appear to be better than advertised, and Matt Gatens and Jarryd Cole are doing what they can. John Lickliter is finally ready to play at point which should give coach Lickliter another option at point when Cully Payne is overwhelmed. But call it what it is, this is going to be a really rough year for the Hawkeyes.

Predicted conference finish: 1-15

IU loses to Loyola

2009-12-23T07:16:00.000-08:00

Maybe we all should be getting used to December letdowns with Tom Crean. Perhaps like his mentor Izzo, there's just a period of head-scratching losses in the early winter so that the team can learn and grow. In any case, it's hard to find many silver linings to this loss. The Hoosiers continue to take one step forward and quickly take it right back. The overall statline is horrible from an efficiency perspective, the best players for IU were Rivers and Pritchard, and then Hulls had an okay game, while Creek and Jones at least were mediocre. Watford, Elston, Dumes, and the others contributed nothing or were even negative impacts for the Hoosiers.

It's really a shame, because Rivers almost won the game for the Hoosiers on his own, but like Chris Webber, ended up being the goat instead, missing a lot of free-throws down the stretch and instead of blocking a crucial three, fouled the player giving Loyola its second four-point play of the night.

This is the third game so far where the Hoosiers should have a win and don't. If they had gotten this one and Boston, they'd be sitting at 7-4 and the rebuilding would look like it was on schedule. But they're 5-6, and its looking shaky instead.

In other Big Ten news, it's good to see both UMHoops.com and the tempo-free godfather, TAFKATBTW, calling for more PT for Zack Gibson. My latest efficiency numbers put him as the top non-starter in per-possession production, and #6 overall in the conference, behind only Evan Turner, Manny Harris, Draymond Green, Jon Leuer, and Damian Johnson. Furthermore, last year he stod out as a player who could use more time, and the year before that I had him pegged as one the top ten players in the conference to look out for the 2008-2009 season. The fact that he's seeing less than 20 possessions a game when Beilien is desperately looking for help for Harris & Sims suggests that maybe small-ball ought to take a hiatus. At this point, what's Michigan got to lose?

Fun with Stats

2009-12-22T10:41:00.001-08:00

I've not commented in a while, but the young Hoosiers are showing promise. If they win tonight against Loyola, they'll have tied last season's win total and surpassed the Division-I win total.

Pre-Conference Efficiency ratings are up and posted here.

Quick note for IU fans- even though you'll notice Maurice Creek is 3rd on the per-possession ranking, he's pretty clearly the top freshman in the conference. His 29 point-performance against UNC-Central isn't included as I only crunched the games through December 13th. And, my ratings system seems to have a slight bias towards reserve big men and a slight bias against shooters- which is the category that Creek obviously falls into- (I think this is a reflection of the nature of the box scores, but I really don't know what else to do about it for now). More good news for IU fans, Elston and Watford are also in the top ten of freshmen, which is great news for the future of the program.

Pitt goes down, but Kentucky too much

2009-12-14T10:35:00.000-08:00

I see that I was right about Pitt- Good for the Hoosiers! However, a little of the shine has come off after watching a very good game and a half by the young Hoosiers followed by them getting literally man-handled in the second half at home against Kentucky. It's just rough when they can get Cousins and Orton saddled with 9 fouls, and the Wildcats can still have Patterson and Perry Stevenson on the floor. Patterson and Cousins were too much for our guys- I like Pritchard and Capobianco's ability to hit the offensive glass, and Elston & Watford's ability to hit both the defensive and offensive boards- but they were no match. IU really needs Watford to develop or they need another big man if they're going to compete with the elite.

There were some good things that I have to mention, tho:

1) Maurice Creek- following up Verdell Jones' nice performance against Pitt, Creek dropped in 31 against Kentucky, and it honestly could've been more. The Hoosier offense is returning.

2) Jeremiah Rivers- Indiana only coughed up the ball 9 times against UK's pressure, and a lot of that had to do with Rivers. That kid can compete with anybody. He's still a little too loose with the ball and far too unsteady at scoring, but he's good, as evidenced by his 8 assists and no-way-it-was-just-1 turnover stat line.

3)Devan Dumes- yes, that's right. Dumes is obviously starting to get back up to speed, and his ability to bang and play defense in the paint is something the Hoosiers need. He just causes havoc when the other team tries to get the ball inside, and his stroke is starting to come back. And he boxed out and got IU's first put-back at the half-time buzzer to cut the Wildcat lead to one. His shot selection and passing still leave a bit to be desired, but I'm no longer fearful when he's on the floor.

It's disappointing when a team is obviously more talented than you, I mean, the Hoosiers win maybe -maybe- 1 out of 10 ten games they play against UK. But they scrapped, never gave up, and showed they've got some talent. IU is coming back, and it's good to see.

In other news, Akron lost the National Championship to Virginia on PKs. What this means for IU's coaching situation? I have no idea.

Tonight, Pitt at the Garden

2009-12-08T14:22:00.000-08:00

It's just a few hours away, but I thought I'd throw out a meaningless prognostication that noone will see before the actual game. Even though Pitt probably is the better team (see Alex B's ITH article for details), I think Indiana wins this game tonight.

I won't say too much about it, but I think the freshmen are coming along, starting to get the whole "defense" and "transition offense" ideas. The half-court offense, well, there's still a lot learn there, but Indiana's coming along. And Pitt's been good, but not great against inferior competition. I bet Pitt is a little too cozy, and Indiana pulls one out here.

Why not?

Go Hoosiers!

Fred Glass & IU Soccer: a plea

2009-12-06T12:20:00.000-08:00

After posting here and there and seeing the surprisingly vibrant debate that has started around the chatboards, I'm a little disturbed to see how many Hoosier fans think "the fix is in" and the way is being cleared for Todd Yeagley to take over his dad's former position as coach. I'm not sure what it is about the living in the State of Indiana makes people so conspiracy-minded, but I'll actually be saddened if the gloomy gus's turn out to be correct.

So, while I know there's only a couple of folks that read this blog, as twenty-season-plus die-hard IU Soccer fan, I am openly imploring Glass to go get Porter or Trask. Yes, if Porter succeeded, it would mean that Todd Yeagley might never get a shot at succeeding his father, and I think that's perhaps a good thing for him personally and for IU Soccer. It would just be unfair to put Todd into a position where he would be constantly and unfavorably compared to perhaps the greatest coach college soccer has ever seen. Bad for everybody, and it would damage the thus-far-pristine Indiana Soccer brand.

An apology to Freitag for the timing and an open appreciation of his years of service wouldn't cost him anything and might heal some wounds, too.

At long, long last

2009-12-03T08:32:00.001-08:00

A decade of suffering is over. The Big Ten conference has an ACC-Big Ten challenge trophy in hand. The best thing about this is that it should assist in the continuation of a very good idea- the showcase of the two best conferences in college basketball. Occasionally, the Big East or the Pac-10 have a good year, but the ACC and the Big Ten are where the best slate of conference games -from beginning to end- are found every year.

Great Coach Taylor-style speech about fans by Tom Crean. Gotta say, I like what he's bringing to the table. Except the defense- I don't like our defense right now, and Crean doesn't either. Grow up quick, freshmen, we need you.

Look who came back to celebrate the win, if only for just one night. Best comment about it goes to "witless chum" over at The Only Colors, who wrote John Gasaway was now the Artist "Formerly Known As Big Ten Wonk Except When We Win The Big 10/ACC Challenge Wooooo (TAFKABTWEWWWTB10/ACCCWOOOOO!)"

And as long as I'm linking, check out this cool run-down of reasonable expectations of freshmen by Luke Winn. He really does some homework here, and provides some really nice graphs. Short takeaway- your #62-ranked freshmen are just not going to be Robbie Hummel in the first year. It doesn't happen, so don't expect big things of kids ranked outside the top ten. That said, there's an interesting bounce for freshmen point guards and wings ranked in the RSCI 61-80 range. Is there a natural bias towards undeveloped, raw talent with height that's not going to help you very much in your first year or two? Maybe we should ask Bawa.

One more on the unemployment rolls.

2009-12-02T09:04:00.000-08:00

Mike Freitag lost his job as IU Soccer coach. I'll have more to say on it later, but I basically agree with the decision and am also sorry to see him go. He was a good guy, and I will always remember that he was the guy that convinced Yeagley to go to a zone defense and 3-5-2 line-up to open up the offense back in 1994. Strange then, that a faltering offense is what doomed him in the end. Good luck to you, Mike, and thanks for your years of service.

IU hops went down to Maryland, and I don't have a lot to say about it other than the Hoosiers looked like they were every bit as talented as the Terps, but just did not have the composure down the stretch. Indeed, some of the worst shooting displays I've ever seen came late in the second half last night. IU's got a rough schedule coming up, and needs to start figuring things out soon or its going to get ugly.

On the upside, the Big Ten has a real chance at snagging its first challenge win, thanks to surprising road wins by Northwestern and Penn State. It could go either way, but the back half is favorable to the conference for the first time in recent memory. Go Big Ten!

Long tough weekend

2009-11-30T15:27:00.000-08:00

It was rough, but I've come through it. Sickness, deadlines, and a funeral. Not the most fun holiday I've experienced. But, y'know, it was what it was. And, just one more week (or so) of deadlines and I actually get to start watching the basketball I'm DVRing.

IU Men's Soccer lost at UNC, which is not surprising, but a even a sweet sixteen finish only raised the Hoosiers to a 12-10-1 overall record, and the offense had real problems. Is Freitag's job safe? Is he capable of getting the Hoosiers back to being a consistent championship challenger with his own recruits? I don't know. If former Hoosier and current Akron coach Caleb Porter wins the championship and sets the division I record with 25 consecutive wins, he should probably get a long look as the new direction for the Hoosiers. I'll be rooting for Akron from here on out in the tourney.

IU Men's basketball snapped their three-game losing streak with a win over the Northwestern State Demon Deacons, who I actually literally bumped into at Nick's. I was struck by how tall they weren't, as a team. A much stiffer challenge awaits the Hoosiers at home when Maryland comes to town. I'd love to see the Hoosiers get this one, but I think Vasquez and Hayes will carve up any zone that Crean might throw at them. Best go man-to-man in this one, methinks. If IU can notch the upset -yes, UM looks vulnerable, but it still would be an upset- then I think the Big Ten has an excellent chance of finally nudging out the ACC for the first Challenge victory. It's a big If, tho, and the Big Ten had a pretty spotty weekend going into this. Still, I'll be rooting for the Big Ten this week.

Mixed results

2009-11-23T08:16:00.001-08:00

I had little time to watch sports this weekend, which was generally a good thing because there wasn't a lot of good news for fans of Hoosier teams. There were a couple of standout events, tho-

1) IU Soccer moves to the 3rd round. One of only two Big Ten teams to get to the Sweet 16, the Hoosiers avenged last year's loss to Butler, beating the Bulldogs 1-0. This looked like a pretty classic Mike Freitag win, with solid defense and just enough offense to move up. It is very good news that the defense is finally solidifying, as a lack of composure has been plaguing the Hoosiers all year, and if the defense stays tough and Darren Yeagle & Will Bruin start getting consistent help from Eric Alexander & the rest of the midfield, who knows? Maybe IU can spring an upset at North Carolina and be playing for yet another NCAA College Cup berth.

2) The Colts extended their regular season winning streak with a little more luck than pluck. The Ravens couldn't finish in the red zone, and the Colts dodged any miracle finishes due to a fumbled punt return that essentially ended the game. The Colts could actually pass the Patriots' streak with a winnable three-game stretch coming up (Houston, Tennessee, and Denver) but need to tighten up on both sides of the ball.

The bad news was that Purdue again won the Oaken Bucket challenge, and that the Hoosier basketball team went 0-3 in the Puerto Rico Tip-Off. George Mason banked in a three-pointer with less than a minute to break a tied game. The last-place finish, where the feeling is a couple of games got away that the Hoosiers should have won, have other fans feeling not so down about the team. I feel like a couple of opportunities were lost here, and these Hoosiers have got to put in some work now. Nobody's starting job should be safe- Watford needs to be more consistent on the boards, Pritchard has been near-invisible, Creek has yet to learn how to play good defense, and Jones & Rivers are shooting poorly while coughing up the ball. Northwestern State is up next, and then Maryland comes to town. The Hoosiers need to do a lot better if they hope to have any chance against the Terps.

I did find a quality soccer blog, which is a little rare. For the latest chatter on the Men's national team, College Soccer, or even last night's MLS championship game (congrats Real Salt Lake), check out Soccer by Ives.

Fingers crossed for a Hoosier turnaround

2009-11-21T15:52:00.000-08:00

Falling to Boston was inexcusable, not so much losing to possible NCAA team as the poor shooting, a late collapse, and particularly the getting totally out-rebounded is really shameful. I think maybe Watford needs a seat on the bench for a little bit, as at least Elston can hit the glass.

I certainly didn't expect IU to beat Purdue in the bucket game, but I'm sorry it didn't happen for the Hoosiers. Great season guys, it was supposed to be a bit of rebuilding year, and you almost -on so many occasions- pulled out a winning record. Hard work eventually pays off, so keep at it, gentlemen!

Here's hoping that Sunday brings a couple of Hoosier victories, IU Soccer over Butler and IU basketball over George Mason. Go Hoosiers!

A swing and an Ole Miss

2009-11-19T19:59:00.000-08:00

I did think that IU would be a longshot in this game. Yeouch. Hey, uh, guys? You wanna stay between the basket and the guy with the ball. Crean needs to teach these how to lock down the paint, and soon. And where did that nice free-throw-shooting go? It's getting worse every game. Ah, well. It's looking like it will be a roller-coaster of a season.

At least the Soccer team got won, posting a 2-0 revenge win over Louisville, who blanked the Hoosiers 4-0 a few weeks ago. Way to go, Hoosiers!

USC-Upstate Reax

2009-11-18T09:54:00.000-08:00

I actually don't have a lot to say about USC-Upstate game. I've watched all but about the last 5 minutes now, and it was... well, it wasn't exciting. At first, when Rivers took it right at the gargantuan Schneiders and laid the ball off for to a teammate for a lay-up, I was like- that's how you do it! And Rivers and Jones had a number of very good passes, but overall the team was pretty poor at handling the ball and not very savvy about attacking a shot-blocker. Watford and Elston are players, tho. Good to see them still playing well. And it was good to see IU come out strong in the second half and build a 20-point lead, even if they let get down to eight at the end.
However, either Dumes isn't 100% back yet, or he's seriously regressed. He was good on the boards but couldn't hit anything and committed some terrible turnovers. Right after a particularly egregious turnover, I was watching the score updates (during class) on the Hoosier Scoop, and I thought the line of the night was "Dumes thought he was playing the X-Box and hit all the buttons at once." Also, that fiesty 'tude had better improve, because right now his minutes could go to Roth, no problem.

For the Puerto Rico Tip-Off, I would guess IU's chances at beating Ole Miss are pretty low. But if the Hoosiers can come out of this tourney with a 2-1 record, that'll be something to build on. Win the tourney and we're a NCAA tournament contender... but that'd probably require taking down not only Mississippi but also Villanova, and that's just not going to happen.

Congrats to the Men's Soccer team for getting into the NCAA tourney again. Their 10-9-1 record is not impressive, but the murderer's row of a schedule is, getting them to #6 in the RPI. Why is IU #6? Look at the RPI top 25 foes - how about *non-conference* games against St. John's (t), Wake Forest(L), Akron(L), Kentucky(W), Butler(L), and then throw in Notre Dame(W), Louisville(L), New Mexico (W) and yes, even the criminally under-rated UCSB (L). That's 5 top 25 non-conference games, and 9 total in the top 32. And that's still not counting the Big Ten foes (Northwestern #3, Michigan St. #17, Penn St.#13, Ohio St.#11, Michigan #33, and Wisconsin #38). Indiana probably isn't a top 25 team, but they did belong in the tourney. Here's hoping they can pay Louisville back tomorrow night!

USC-Upstate Preview, Weekend Recap

2009-11-16T10:16:00.000-08:00

So, how 'bout that Bill Belichick?
Brilliant!

What I especially liked what SportsCenter having Merril Hoge defend Belichick's call as "brilliant" because.... Belichick is awesome? Seriously, that was the argument. Uh, Bobby Knight was a genius of a basketball coach in his day, but who's going to argue he never made any mistakes? The man has my respect as a winner (and my disrespect as a cheater) but Belichick screwed up a game his team had won, and that's all. Hey, I was happy to see the Colts capitalize, but they got lucky.

Um, the weekend saw most Big Ten teams roll over their opponents, the notable exception being Iowa. My goodness, they're in for a rough season. The bright spot for the conference was Manny Harris' triple-double, which he completed in 29 minutes. In case you were wondering, Evan Turner played 30 minutes in his season-opening triple-double. The conference has some serious talent this season. Which is both good and bad for the Hoosiers.

Speaking of, game 2 tips off tonight against South Carolina-Upstate. I mean no disrespect, but I try to keep abreast of who's joining D-I, and I can't remember them at all. It would appear this is their third D-I season. Anyway, it does look like they'll be tougher than Howard as they return a better team and have better recruits. But they won't be that much tougher than Howard. Again, if this is not a blowout, then it is cause for serious concern.

Tonight, I'll be watching for how the Hoosiers attack 7-3 shotblocker Nick Schneiders. Go Hoosiers!

Illinois grad students go on strike

2009-11-15T19:55:00.000-08:00

Not that anyone reads this, but after reading the shockingly uninformed boards at Illinois Loyalty, I gotta say this publicly:

As a current student at Illinois, I'd like to state my support for the UIUC GEO strike to protect their tuition waivers. If you committed to a school and then discovered that your tuition waiver went away, you'd probably consider that a breach of contract. It's not like I think that strikes are awesome, or that unions should be walking out every year, but this is the only recourse the grad students have to guard what they have, and I support them.

Howard Reax

2009-11-15T12:47:00.000-08:00

With IU football and soccer teams suffering unfortunate losses this weekend, it's time to once again focus on basketball.

The Hoosier men took care what's likely to be one of the worst teams in D-I, downing Howard 83-60, in a game that wasn't that close. Next up is USC-"upstate" before they head to Puerto Rico. John M of CQ has a nice wrap-up, and ITH has some impressions (from the balcony), too.

My impressions 1) these guys could be better than expected this year. The freshmen have game- I like Elston & Creek better with each game, and Watford and Hulls give Crean options that simply weren't there last year. 2) The Hoosiers are going to be pretty good next season and even better in 2011-2012, the future is bright. 3) Hoosier fans should prepare themselves for some really frustrating losses this season. A major point of concern is that the turnover problem isn't going away. A second point of concern is that I saw a lot IU players getting pushed around going for defensive rebounds. IU actually did ok on the boards last season, but how to put this... the other guys didn't miss much. And the backcourt -Jones & Rivers- looked outright out of control at times. If the Hoosiers can start cutting down the turnovers, force opponents' into more misses while continuing to defend the glass, all in the top conference in the country- then the postseason beckons.

I still think the experience of other Big Ten teams and the Hoosier turnover problems keep IU from getting over .500 this season- but I'd love to be proven wrong.

Howard Preview & Soccer

2009-11-13T09:06:00.000-08:00

The Men's basketball team kicks off their season against Howard. What kind of test will they be? Well, most computers/analysts put Indiana's team as ranked somewhere around 200 (I think Sagarin had IU at about 190, while KenPom & ncaaRPI had us around 210). Howard lived around 330. As bad as last year's team was, Howard would've been a welcome foe. And you won't see Howard's recruiting class on any top 10 list. This should be a blowout, and if it's not, that'll be cause for alarm.

If I was in Bloomington today, nothing would keep from cheering on the Soccer team in the Big Ten Tourney and Bill Armstrong stadium. It's at 2pm ET, but the Hoosiers are very close to keeping their season alive. They went a long way last night by beating #5 seed Wisconsin 2-0, to improve their overall record to 10-8-1. They also earned a rematch to top-seeded Ohio State who beat them 1-0 in overtime in a very closely contested match a couple of weeks ago. If IU can take down OSU to earn a spot in the Championship game, the odds of getting a NCAA at-large invite will be greatly improved. Of course, win today and on Sunday, and they're automatically in. I, for one, don't want to see any other teams hoisting the championship trophy on Jerry Yeagley field. Go Hoosiers!

2nd exhibition game a win

2009-11-10T09:11:00.000-08:00

Indiana crushed another in-state small college team, beating St. Joseph's 95-67. Although the final score wasn't markedly different than against Grace, IU pulled away early in this one and cruised. Maurice Creek had a monster game, and showed everyone why he was considered the most college-level-ready player of the recruits coming in. Hulls had a pretty poor game, at one point in the first half committing three straight turnovers. Watford and Rivers were steady again, as was Jones, although Jones had some serious turnover problems. As for the team stats, IU shot 5 of 10 from three, 32 of 46 from the stripe, and had 15 assists to 18 turnovers.

What can be gleaned from these games? Well, I did my own little number-crunching of the stats, and while the low level of competition can't give a reliable forecast, you can tell that the freshmen plus Rivers are pretty decent in comparison to the returning Hoosiers. In fact, the seven newcomers would've probably won more games than all of last season's roster. Verdell Jones and Tom Pritchard were two of the best IU players last year, and while they still look like they belong in the starting lineup, they're not better than newbies Rivers, Creek, and Watford.

Also, the bench- the Hoosiers will actually have one this year as Hulls & Derek Elston (boy, they could've used Elston last year) will make positive contributions off the bench. And Capobianco and Roth will fill in as depth, but I don't expect either of them to top 10 min./game. Muniru and Dumes are a bit of a mystery still. Dumes was the leading scorer last year and perhaps the best on-ball defender, but where will he fit in once he's healthy? And Muniru- well, he had a nice night against a team that wasn't very big or very good. But he can block shots and dunk- great upside. Jobe and Moore, barring incredible improvement or disastrous injuries, will probably see a lot more of bench this year.

In other Big Ten news, Ohio State kicked off the real season with a real game (altho it was just Alcorn State), and Evan Turner had a night for the ages with a triple-double, just stuffing the stat-sheet. Enjoy him in his last go-round here in the college game. Michigan State also beat Grand Valley State, exacting some revenge for a loss a couple of years ago, but they were still without Morgan, Roe, and Allen, and Summers got poked in the eye and only 19 minutes. Also, Kalin Lucas shot 6-for-18 from the floor, bringing his preseason total to 11-for-39. I've mentioned my reservations about Lucas' shooting percentage in the past, and shooting 28% against D-II competition isn't exactly alleviating my concerns.

Exhibitionism

2009-11-06T08:22:00.000-08:00

The Big Ten teams are starting to kick off their exhibition schedule, blowing out various Junior College & NAIA schools.

Here's the numbers I'm interested in:

Purdue over "Cal U" on Tuesday: The Boilers hit 8 of 21 threes, 16 of 26 frees, and had 17 assists to 15 turnovers. The real California will be tougher.

Last night:
Minnesota really pasted Minn. Duluth, 114-47. The Gophers still only shot 5 of 15 on threes, 21 of 29 on frees, but had an eye-popping 32 assists against just 5 turnovers.

Northwestern took down "Robert Morris" of (Ill.). What's with all the playing Juco teams with D-I names? Anyway, NU shot 9-of-31 from three, 3-of-7 from free, and had a very good 24 assists against 7 turnovers. Notably, Shurna & Coble, who will be taking most of Craig Moore's threes, went 6-for-9 behind the arc.

Ohio State beat on Walsh, shooting a very nice 8-for-17 on threes, 4-of-6 from the stripe, and 16 assists vs. 11 turnovers.

Finally, the UW Badgers jumped on Bemidji State 90-54, but shot a miserable 5-of-20 from three, and 19-of-32 from free (59%), but had 19 assists vs. 13 turnovers. For reference, Indiana beat Benjy St. 72-54 last season.

So, how did Indiana's Wednesday win over Grace stack up? The Hoosiers shot 4 of 13 on threes, 22 of 29 on free-throws, and had 21 assists to 17 turnovers. What's notable here is that Indiana has posted the best free-throw percentage so far of any Big Ten, after ranking last (I think- not 100% on this) last season. Not crowing about it, mind you, but it'd be nice to take ourselves out of close games by bricking free-throws this time around. It's also nice to have more assists than turnovers (which Illinois did not), but I think Indiana is still going to challenge for the conference lead in this category- there's just too many low-turnover coaches in the league now. The lack of three-point prowess doesn't worry me yet- most teams, excepting OSU and Purdue, had a pretty rocky start here.

Bah!

2009-11-04T18:52:00.000-08:00

A beautiful, insightful post on tonight's game eaten by blogger.

Basically, IU pulls away from Grace in exhibition, I'm not worried that it didn't happen until second half, most of our freshmen look talented.

Box score breakdowns will come later.

Comment to Crimson Quarry.

2009-11-03T08:02:00.000-08:00

CQ has a nice run-down of the returning guards here, and I'm too impatient to wait for my SBNation ID and permissions to come through.

"Great work! I'm sure that it won't be the happiest year to be Hoosier basketball fan, but it'll be a long sight better than last year.

I did want to mention a couple of things about Roth, 1) he almost *never* shot inside the arc, unless his foot was on the three-point line. Mostly he ran off picks and backdoor slips to the hoop hoping to draw some contact and hit some free-throws (which he did well). However, the one time that I saw when he actually received the backdoor pass, he almost didn't know what to do with it- he bricked the lay-up badly. 2) Roth did a great job of not turning the ball over. Besides Jones, he was the only IU player with more assists than turnovers in Big Ten play. 3) Roth never gave up on a play. There was a long stretch of the season, after the Iowa game I think, where he was IU's leading shot-blocker just because he got back on transition defense.

I don't see him starting this year, he's just not big enough, but I think he'll be a very useful player to bring off the bench for offense, or even just to calm things down."

Countdown to the beginning...

2009-11-02T18:31:00.000-08:00

of the future of Indiana Basketball. The exhibition game is against Grace on Wednesday night, and I believe my DVR will be taping it early in the morning on Thursday, and some point after that, I'll be watching to see what the new Hoosiers look like. Speaking of exhibition games, I generally watch the box scores of other Big Ten teams for three-point and free-throw shooting, and the assist-turnover ratio. Generally, the exhibition foes are so much smaller that it's hard to get a read on the accuracy of our league foes' FG% and rebounding acumen. Not that shooting is much easier to predict, but good shooting always stands out. Purdue plays tomorrow night, but two exhibition games have actually already occurred.

MSU trounced Northwood, with 18 assists to 11 TOs, going 18 for 30 on frees and 4 for 18 on threes.

Illinois beat down Southern Missouri, 16 assists/19 TOs, and went 26 for 37 on frees and 3 for 15 on threes.

So, no good shooting to really standout here, although Alex Legion hit a couple of threes for Illinois, and frosh Paul & Richardson showed some scoring abilities. For MSU, Morgan and Chris Allen (not Chris Hill, as the MSU website listed complete with a link to Hill's senior profile) were out and Roe only played 7 minutes. Of the newcomers, Derrick Nix showed a nice ability to score in the low post and Summers scored from all over. But Kalin Lucas did go 5 of 21 from the field. That's gotta be a little worrisome for the green gang.

Good bit on the improvement of returning players at Big Ten Geeks. I think an improvement from Tom Pritchard specifically, would go a very long way in helping the Hoosiers.

Changes, and Poll reax

2009-10-29T07:14:00.000-07:00

The the ESPN/USA Today basketball poll is out. I am shocked, shocked! that I don't see the Hoosiers anywhere. I was actually surprised at how close I was some of the rankings- for example, I thought I would be the only one listing Butler as a top ten. Guess I'm not a unique snowflake after all. I am a little mystified at Texas & UNC as #3 and #4. Um, the Big Ten does pretty well-

#2 Michigan State
#7 Purdue
#15 Michigan
#17 Ohio State
#18 Minnesota
#27 Illinois

From here, I think Illinois and OSU are a bit over-rated, and Northwestern is a bit underrated.

I made some changes on the links section of the blog. It was getting kind of ridiculous for me to have to click through two sites to check out the latest from Crimson Quarry or The Only Colors. And some blogs had passed on, and needed to be replaced with more current commentary. Speaking of other bloggers, Inside the Hall is asking for some help. Even though they don't link to me (and I haven't asked), I suggest that if you like reading sportsblogs and have a couple of bucks to give back, they're a good venue as they pay for access to resources so they can share the knowledge and keep us fans up-to-date on the latest scuttlebutt. Also, they have a nice Q&A with the Godfather of tempo-free stats.

Basketball returns! ...kinda

2009-10-28T07:34:00.000-07:00

The NBA kicked off last night, and I don't have a lot invested in the pros. I generally root for Chicago and Indiana, and root against the Lakers (well, more specifically, against Kobe), but I do like to see the highlights. Unless they interfere with college basketball highlights of course.

A friend of mine always puts together his predictions, and I try to counter them with my own much-less informed version. So, in the spirit of witless prognostication, here's my picks for the NBA 2009-2010 season:

East

1. Boston- Presuming a healthy KG. Good talent, Wallace was a nice pick-up, but KG is the real key.
2. Cleveland- I don't think Shaq will hurt them over the season. I just don't think he helps them get further in the playoffs.
3. Orlando- Good talent, but I'm thinking Vince Carter is on the downside of his career.
4. Atlanta- Lots of young talent remains, but have they reached their ceiling?
5. Washington- Have a good starting five, but pretty thin on depth.
6. Chicago- I like the Bulls' young talent. I worry about the interior offense, tho.
7. Miami- D-Wade is as good as they come, and JO & Beasley should help.
8. Philly- Lose Andre Miller but gain Elton Brand. Spinning their wheels.

Indiana- Improving with a lot of good young talent (Granger, Ford, Rush). Probably one good starter away from the playoffs.
Pistons- There's no respect for history in the NBA. Gordon's a weird pick-up when you already have Hamilton. And they were 39-43 last season.
Nets- Good backcourt, but that's it. Nothing else here is scary.
Knicks -Chris Duhon starting at point? Puh-lease. NY is mired in mediocrity.
Toronto- Bosh will probably be traded, and there's not a lot else to like.
Milwaukee- I don't think much of this team. Will probably hang around 30 wins
Charlotte- The young guys are going to get a lot of minutes. Losing Okafor hurts *a lot*

West

1. LA Lakers- You just can't pick anyone else.
2. New Orleans- Okafor a very nice pickup- adds offense that Chandler couldn't supply.
3. San Antonio- getting old. Duncan & Parker are still top-notch, tho. A healthy Ginobili is a must.
4. Portland- on the way up, and if Oden holds up and continues to improve, could be top-three.
5. Denver- very good with Carmelo at the top of his game. But I don't believe Billups, Martin will get better.
6. Utah- There's still good talent here, but have they topped out?
7. Dallas- also getting old, and not as good as Spurs
8. Phoenix- makes playoffs if Stoudemire, et al, stays healthy

LA Clippers- Blake Griffin is the real deal, especially with a Baron Davis-Eric Gordon backcourt
Memphis- They are rebuilding, and have hope for the future
Golden State- May get closer to playoffs if they can put the drama aisde, but
just not quite there.
Minnesota- Johnny Flynn helps. Still not enough power to make any
noise in the west tho.
Oklahoma City- not super-terrible.... just not anywhere near good.
Sacramento- not going anywhere good
Houston- injuries are devastating this squad

Just to be contrary, I'll pick Celtics over Lakers again for the championship. It didn't work out last season, but it did two seasons ago.

Other (Hoosier) Fall Sports

2009-10-27T12:14:00.000-07:00

IU Football has had a couple of oh-so-close road wins. Not that I expected to the Hoosiers to win at Michigan and Northwestern, but what if they had? Instead of limping into a road match with #4 Iowa with a 4-4 record, they'd be 6-2 overall, 3-2 and tied for fourth place in the Big Ten, and looking for a bowl bid. Instead, with road games at Iowa and Penn State sandwiching a home game against Wisconsin, it seems like that Illinois win may well have been the high point of this season.

IU Men's Soccer has seemingly fallen apart, and is falling out of the rankings. Not that you can knock them for losing on the road against the #5 (Louisville) and #12 (Northwestern) teams in the country, but they got shut out 0-4 and 0-2. And that's after they dropped a game at home to Michigan State that they dominated but couldn't score in. To be fair, they've played a murderer's row of a schedule, at #1 Akron, hosting #2 Wake Forest, at #4 UCSB, at #5 Louisville, not to mention (#12) NU and #17 Butler. But the Hoosiers are now 7-7-1, which I believe is the worst record this late since 1993 and maybe even since 1985. And I honestly believed that coming off what was so close to being a Final Four season last year, the Hoosiers would be contending for a national championship. Coach Freitag's seat has got to be feeling hotter now, especially as one looks across the state border and sees Caleb Porter currently coaching the #1 team to a 15-0-0 record.

On the other hand, IU Women's soccer seems to be on the way up. These Hoosiers have a shiny new national ranking (#24) and 10-3-2 record, and is unbeaten at home. They are still only 7th in the Big Ten, tho. But still, go Hoosiers!

Full 20009-2010 Preseason Prognostication

2009-10-26T06:35:00.000-07:00

So, once again I've listed my quick thoughts on teams 1-50, and slapped together a list of conference winners, a projected NIT field, and a list of sleepers that might attend the CBI or whatever other postseason tourneys there are. It's a grand total of 120 teams that I think will be better than the other 200, a little more in depth than last year, but not so much as I've done in the past. Astute readers will notice that my beloved Indiana Hoosiers are not among the illustrious 120. Consider them #121. I was pessimistic about the Hoosiers' chances last season, and was even moreso after seeing them in action. I'm probably a little pessimistic about the Hoosiers' chances this year too, but I think they'll look much better while again posting a losing overall record, with maybe an outside shot of getting to exactly .500. But enough about just one team- Here's to beginning of the College Basketball Season!

Teams 1-10
Teams 11-20
Teams 21-30
Teams 31-40
Teams 41-51
NCAA Automatic Bid Winners (teams 52-65)
NIT teams (66-97)
CBI & sleeper teams (98-120)

Sleeper teams for 2009-2010

2009-10-25T17:32:00.000-07:00

aka teams 98-120

Projected 2010 CBI field:

Cal State Northridge (Big West)
Citadel (Southern)
Gardner-Webb (Big South)
Georgia Tech (ACC)
IUPUI (Summitt)
Jacksonville (Altantic Sun)
Louisiana State (SEC)
Morehead State (OVC)
Navy (Patriot)
Northeastern (CAA)
Penn State (Big 10)
Robert Morris (NEC)
Saint John's (Big East)
Texas Christian (C-USA)
Virginia Commonwealth (CAA)
Wichita State (MVC)

Most likely to move up are Georgia Tech, The Citadel, and Penn State. Most likely from this group to drop out are IUPUI, Navy, and TCU. Any of these seven sleepers (or possible participants in CNET or whatever additional postseason tourneys, if any) listed below could move up if there are injuries, surprise ineligibilities, etc.

Arizona State (Pac-10),
Arkansas (SEC)
Manhattan (MAAC)
Nicholls State (Southland)
Rider (MAAC)
UALR (Sun Belt)
UTEP (C-USA)

Projected 2010 NIT field

2009-10-25T06:30:00.000-07:00

aka teams 66-97.

Arizona (Pac 10)
Boston College (ACC)
Buffalo (MAC)
Davidson (Southern)
Duquesne (Atl-10)
Eastern Kentucky (OVC)
Florida (SEC)
Georgetown (Big East)
Georgia State (CAA)
Hofstra (CAA)
Houston (C-USA)
Illinois State (MVC)
Iowa State (Big XII)
Miami (FL) (ACC)
Mississippi (SEC)
Missouri (Big XII)
New Mexico State (WAC)
North Texas (Sun Belt)
Notre Dame (Big East)
Oklahoma (Big XII)
Oral Roberts (Summit)
Oregon (Pac 10)
Pittsburgh (Big East)
Portland (WCC)
Princeton (Ivy)
Southern Illinois (MVC)
UC Irvine (Big West)
UNLV (MWC)
Vermont (AmEast)
Wisconsin (Big Ten)
Wright State (Hor)
Xavier (Atl-10)

Most likely to move up to the NCAA tournament from this group are Oklahoma, Mississippi, and Boston College. Most likely to drop down from this group are Southern Illinois, Vermont, and Georgia State.

Filling out the Field: The Automatic Bids

2009-10-24T06:37:00.000-07:00

Here's the rest of my predicted 2010 NCAA tournament teams. There's the lucky 13 conference tourney winners, and of course the Ivy League conference standings winner as well.

America East: Boston University
Atlantic Sun: Lipscomb
Big Sky: Weber State
Big South: Radford
Big West: Long Beach State
Ivy: Cornell
Mid-Eastern: Hampton
Northeastern: Mount St. Mary's
Ohio Valley: Murray State
Patriot: Holy Cross
Southern: College of Charleston
Southland: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
Summitt: Oakland
Southwestern: Prairie View A&M

The most likely to pull a first-round surprise out of this group would be Boston. The team with the hardest task of holding off a challenger would be Murray State, who'll have capable rivals in the OVC tourney with Morehead State & Tennessee-Martin.

Quick notes 2009-2010 cbb teams 1-10

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1. Kansas- I'm sorry, you expected someone else? Sherron Collins is the best point guard in the country and should get his second ring, barring a dose of extremely bad luck and timing. There's just way too much depth here overall, but I'll be watching frosh Xavier Henry's impact- he could well be a starter on day one. It'd be hard to foresee anyone getting the better of Cole Aldrich in the paint, and Tyshawn Taylor, Tyrel Reed, and Brady Morningstar are efficiency offensive forces at the wings. Marcus Morris starts at the power forward slot (and records a nice steal % there), but brother Markeiff is ready step in at any time too. Freshman 6-8 Thomas Robinson will probably only see spot minutes on this club, although point guard 6-2 Elijah Johnson may get significant minutes as Collins' back-up. Mario Little and Travis Releford both add depth to the wings, although neither looks particularly adept at distancing shooting (3 for 8 is good, but only 8 threes attempted apiece for the whole year? And 58% combined on free-throws?). However, the defense was fantastic again last year despite having tons of new players, and looks to be even better this year. It wasn't like Roy Williams was doing a bad job, but Bill Self has taken Kansas to a very elite level in a very short amount of time.

2. Villanova- The loss of Dante Cunningham will hurt, but there's enough talent here to do even better than last season. Instant impacts will be felt as freshmen 6-9 Mouphtaou Yarou and 6-6 Dominic Cheek step into the rotation. Frosh 6-0 Maalik Wayns should back up Corey Fisher, and 6-8 Isaiah Armwood should be able to supply some minutes up front. Getting the NBA-ready Scottie Reynolds back for this year was a coup, but Fisher, Corey Stokes, and Reggie Redding all saw starting minutes as well. Antonio Pena will also start, and should team with Yarou to provide the interior defense, but Duke transfer Taylor King is an option as well for one of the forward spots, and should provide a significant offensive boost. Jay Wright has proved himself to be one of the best in the coaching business regardless of personnel, and I think the Wildcats may be the nation's best bet to keep Kansas from yet another title. This club does give up free-throws, but overall there aren't many weaknesses here. Losing Cunningham, Dwayne Anderson, and Shane Clark from the frontcourt will cause some hitches, but Wright brought in the talent to shore it up, and it should be another happy March for 'Nova.

3. Tennessee- Bruce Pearl has assembled so much talent here. Even though last season could be seen as a bit of an underachievement, it could also be seen as a necessary period of adjustment to new talent and especially, a new point guard. Now five starters return and four of them are seniors. Tyler Smith and Wayne Chism aren't going to have to hold down the paint by themselves anymore, as 6-10 junior Brian Williams showed significant growth at the end of last season, and is joined by the powerful frosh 6-9 Kenny Hall, who should help immediately. 5-11 Juco point Melvin Goins also joins, which should help coach Pearl on nights when Bobby Maze is off. Michael Prince and Scotty Hopson provide multi-faceted games and long-armed agility to the Volunteer press. Some are expecting bigger things out of forward Renardo Woolridge, but his shooting really needs to improve. Josh Tabb and Cameron Tatum provide experienced depth from the wings, but Tabb was a pretty interesting shooter statistically last year as he went 13-28 on free throws (terrible!) and 14-33 on threes (great!). Previous years suggest that three-point shooting was a fluke, but Pearl could use a solid shooter off the bench. Outside of Hopson, the three-point shooting isn't great here, and also, once teams break the press, they tend to shoot well against Tennessee. Hall & an improved Williams might help, but I think Pearl's teams will always give up some twos in order to make foes play the game the way that Pearl wants to play it. If he doesn't get to the NCAA's final weekend with this squad, I don't know that he ever will.

4. Michigan State- Izzo could well start another Final Four streak, but I doubt he'll win the Big Ten regular season title with this team. Izzo teams tend to drop a few head-scratchers (Iowa '08, NU at home last season) before building steam in the final month, and I think Purdue's just going to be more consistent. But MSU has more talent and eventually in 2010 will have the better team. Let me start off with a couple of negatives before getting to the positives: 1) losing Goran Suton & Travis Walton is going to hurt. Essentially MSU is losing is best two defenders, as well as the most effective player in the conference (Suton). 2) I'm not as high on Kalin Lucas as most folks- sure, he got Big 10 POY last season and there was certainly a defensible logic behind that decision- he's an offensive threat and records an lot of assists with significantly less turnovers- but Lucas doesn't do much else and shoots really poorly on twos, and the killer is that he shoots them way too often. If Izzo can adjust Lucas' shot selection, I'll agree he's the best point guard in the conference. On to the positives! Raymar Morgan, when healthy, is a star performer and together with Delvon Roe should deliver a 1-2 punch in the frontcourt. Draymar Green is super-sub as well, and solid recruits 6-10 Garrick Sherman and 6-9 Derrick Nix should tag team with Tom Herzog to fill Suton's minutes. Korie Lucious backs up Lucas well, and Chris Allen and Durrell Summers look ready to start on the wing, particularly if Allen can find his 2008 3-point stroke.

5. Kentucky- This may be the second-most talented team in the nation, heck- maybe the most-talented, period. But the lack of reliable outside-shooting is going to haunt them. Patrick Patterson is a NBA-talent, as are freshmen 6-3 John Wall and 6-9 Demarcus Cousins. This trio will take the Wildcats far. The rest of '09 class are no slouches either with 6-10 Daniel Orton, 6-6 Jon Hood, 6-0 Eric Bledsoe, and Juco 6-7 Darnell Dodson also joining the fold. However, most of these guys will probably be getting back-up minutes unless Hood or Bledsoe can play the off-guard spot, as Darius Miller probably is set at the small forward. DeAndre Liggins and Perry Stevenson will also be fighting for starting spots, but they both will have to cut down on their turnovers, which was a pretty big problem last season. Although Kentucky to some extent was just unlucky not to make the NCAA tournament, new coach Jon Calipari will almost certainly make sure that the defense takes a notable step forward. Combined with his knack for snagging the very best talent, UK will almost certainly get back to the final four in the very near future, even if they have to vacate it soon thereafter. I just think that unless they find reliable outside shooters, they're going to have trouble putting teams away in the tourney, which could well cost this title-level-talent of a team.

6. Purdue- Probably the best team in the Big Ten, but come tourney time, I see the lack of experienced interior depth really hurting their chances at a Final Four. Of the freshmen class, only DJ Byrd seems like he has to the tools to step into a starting role, which may be needed if Keaton Grant can't shake himself out of last year's funk. The others 6-10 Sandi Marcius, 6-5 Kelsey Barlow, and 6-8 Patrick Bade will provide depth at least. The backcourt is solid with the trio of Chris Kramer, E'twuann Moore, and Lewis Jackson, and center Jajuan Johnson will probably be playing for pay next season. However, as everyone is saying, the key to this team is Robbie Hummel. With him, the Boilers are very good, but without him, there just isn't anyone on the roster who can hit the glass or is above average at three-point shooting. Matt Painter has a good shot a taking Purdue to its first final four in almost 30 years.

7. Washington- They'll have a slightly better season than last year, but I can't see them being a top title contender without the departed Jon Brockman. But stars 5-8 Isiah Thomas & 6-6 Quincy Pontdexter will give them a puncher's chance against anybody. Freshman 6-7 Clarence Trent will get plenty of chances to fill the gap left by Brockman, as well the redshirt freshman 6-7 Tyreese Breshers. But the real treasure in this class is 6-3 Abdul Gaddy. Gaddy will step right into the hole left by Justin Dentmon, who was an effective scorer but not really a true point. Venoy Overton & Elston Turner will provide perimeter depth. The center spot is a bit of a question as 7-0 Joe Wolfinger took a step back last season, 6-9 Matthew Bryan-Amaning hasn't shown anything special, and 6-8 Darnell Gant shot a horrid 36.6% from the field. Gant did shoot 70% on free-throws, and seems to be the likely fifth starter. Still, even with better overall talent, it's hard to see UW making the move to the final four without Brockman. His rebounding and interior toughness was so far off the chart that only his absence will reveal its true importance.

8. West Virginia- Huggins' recruits are starting to replace Beilien's roster. They'll be quite good thanks to Ebanks,et al, but I don't quite see a Final Four. The loss of Alex Ruoff is going to be hard to replace, and the offensive balance will suffer as a result of the lack of outside shooting (the Mountaineers already weren't great at three-point shooting even with him). But, Hugs did boost the interior depth finally with a very nice class that includes 6-9 Deniz Kilicli and 6-8 Dan Jennings, as well as wings 6-5 Dalton Pepper and Juco 6-4 Casey Mitchell. I don't know that Mitchell or Pepper or especially suited to the shooting guard, but one of them had better be, because otherwise WVU will have to have point guards Darryl Bryant and Joe Mazzulla logging heavy minutes side-by-side in the backcourt. This isn't a bad thing , necessarily, but chemistry may be an issue, and perimeter shooting & depth are definitely the weak links. The strength of this team is in starting forwards DaSean Butler and Devin Ebanks. These two stars will cause a lot of problems for opponents, and now that Kevin Jones and Wellington Smith don't have shoulder the sole burden of matching up against centers, they and the freshmen should be able to attack the glass with freer hands. Like his old Cincinnati teams, this club gives up a few too many free-throws. Still, having Mazzulla for a full season should allow WVU to take a significant step forward.

9. Wake Forest- Al-Farouq Aminu should lead the Deacons to the top of the ACC, which unfortunately is quite a bit less than the championship guarantee this year. Although the Demon Deacons beat both Duke & UNC, their best non-conference win was probably BYU, and they really fell flat in both the ACC & NCAA tourneys. Jeff Teague & James Johnson both jumped to the NBA, and Aminu will probably follow this year. But this year, he returns with a competent supporting cast that should allow him to star, and I expect Aminu to have a better year than Johnson did in 08-09. Freshman 6-7 Ari Stewart will probably start alongside him and capable senior Chas McFarland up front, and LD Williams and Israel Smith should hold down the backcourt unless frosh point 6-2 CJ Harris or 6-4 Juco Konner Tucker can crack the line-up. There's a ton of height to bring off the bench with 6-11 Tony Woods and 6-11 David Weaver, and 6-4 Gary Clark adds depth. There's a wicked defense and still a lot of firepower left here, but the lack of outside shooting will cripple the Deacs' chances at title contention, and might allow Duke to slip by them for the conference crown.

10. Butler- That's right. I think the Bulldogs will be back at a top-10 level again this year. Matt Howard's ability to anchor the paint is the key to hanging with the big boys, but this program will be fun to watch for years to come. Howard's great, but Gordon Hayward might be better. Hayward and Shelvin Mack were surprisingly good freshmen, and came in completely under the recruiting radar. This year, Hayward and Howard should get a little help inside from 6-10 freshmen Andrew Smith. Speaking of inside play, I don't understand why 6-8 Avery Jukes got such little playing time, and why 6-0 Ronald Nored got so much. Don't get me wrong, Butler won 26 games last season, but the numbers don't make sense: Jukes would provide a rebounding boost with effective scoring while not turning the ball over, and Nored coughs the ball up while shooting just terribly, even from the free-throw line (albeit providing assists). I understand needing perimeter depth, but it doesn't make sense to me that Nored gets starting minutes. Senior wing Willie Veasley turns the ball over a little, too, but also is a very effective scorer when not shooting threes. This is a solid Bulldog squad that loses no one and should be a terror all year.

Quick notes 2009-2010 cbb teams 11-20

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11. Texas- The 'Horns continue to keep rolling with Rick Barnes. He brings in another amazing recruiting class, adds Florida transfer point guard Jai Lucas, and returns senior star Damion James. Justin Mason should steady the backcourt, while the progress of center Dexter Pittman should anchor the paint. Gary Johnson is perhaps a little underrated at the three-spot, and may even keep blue-chipper Jordan Hamilton on the bench. Conor Atchley's solid play & AJ Abrams' leadership will be missed, but frosh Avery Bradley is being talked about in one-and-done terms. The one weakness that I see that really keeps this squad out of the top ten is lack of interior depth. Alex Wangmene and Clint Chapman have never been able to do too much, and while Pittman has grown into a very nice player, he still can't seem to stay on the floor for starting minutes. It'll require the undersized James holding down the paint almost entirely on his own for Texas to challenge for a Final Four berth.

12. California- The Golden Bears just have a ton of talent returning, and swept Washington last season. With five returning starters, I really would have felt comfortable picking them for Pac-10 champs had they not sputtered down the stretch so badly, losing five of their seven, and all of their last three including a NCAA first-round blowout at the hands of Maryland. Jerome Randle & Patrick Christopher make one of the nation's very best backcourts, and Jamal Boykin does a nice job hitting the glass. Watch seven-footer Jordan Wilkes, the more time he's able to take away from Harper Kamp at center, the better this team is going to be. Special mention here for 6-10 recruit Bak Bak, who'll be instantly making the all-name teams.

13. Duke- The Blue Devils finally have gotten some quality height with this year's recruiting class (6-11 Mason Plumlee & 6-10 Ryan Kelly), and combined with Brian Zoubek, Lance Thomas, and Kyle Singler, Coach Kryszewski has a bit a glut up front. The problem is, with the graduation of Greg Paulus and the early losses of Gerald Henderson & Elliott Williams, the perimeter is paper-thin. Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith will have to carry a significantly heavier load this season, which is rough. Also, even with the discussions of shifting Singler and/or others to the three spot, and the coup of grabbing 6-3 Andre Dawkins a year early, I still don't see a real point guard on this roster. They'll be good, but just not at their usual Final Four level.

14. Minnesota- The Golden Gophers return all of their top players, and add a solid recruiting class that features a couple of athletic forwards. Royce White could start from day one, and Rodney Williams will provide some Corey Maggette-like depth off the bench. And Ralph Sampson and Colton Iverson were two of the better freshman bigs last season, with Al Nolen & Damian Johnson bring defensive terrors as well. The one thing I'm not sold on here is their half-court offense. Outside of Sampson, no one looked particularly effective as a scorer, and even go-to guy Lawrence Westbrook was pretty average. Also, there are some problems with turnovers, and their defensive rebounding isn't great. But, there's so much talent here that Tubby will maximize having a second five of Iverson, Williams, Paul Carter, Devron Bostick, and Devoe Joseph (not to mention Blake Hoffarber & Juco Trevor Mbakwe as his #11 & #12 guys) to the maximum effect. The Gophers are rising.

15. Brigham Young- The Cougars are looking to become the new Butler/Gonzaga, a midmajor mainstay in the minds of the ESPMSM. Losing Lee Cummard will hurt, but having Jonathan Tavenari, Jimmer Fredette, and Emery Jackson pick up the slack should work. Chris Miles fills the center spot ably, and a solid recruiting class should help boost a bench that, honestly, wasn't very good last season. If 6-8 sophomore Noah Hartsock can make the jump to starter at the four-spot, and it seems he has the rebounding, block, and FG% to do so, then frosh 6-9 Brandon Davies can come off the bench. My biggest concern is free-throw shooting, as Cummard was an excellent free-throw shooter, and with the exceptions of Fredette, Jackson, and Tavernari, this team was pretty awful. Otherwise, I think this club makes a big leap forward.

16. Dayton- The Flyers are the A-10 team to watch. Ryan Wright and Chris Lowery are a powerful inside-outside combo, and sophomore forward Chris Johnson should step right into the starting spot vacated by the graduated Charles Little. The sole freshman, 6-9 Matt Kavanaugh, will see some minutes at center, but overall, the returning depth and experience of a team that beat West Virginia in the first round of the NCAA tourney last season is the story. Notably, this team isn't great at shooting the ball, ranking below average at the line as well as inside and outside of the arc. But consistently winning the turnover battle and hitting the offensive glass makes up the difference. Swingman Marcus Johnson should get more shots, as he doesn't turn it over and shoots well from the field.

17. Siena- Losing Kenny Hasbrouck will hurt, no doubt, but the Saints have a great shot at the Sweet Sixteen, I think. Clarence Jackson should step right into Hasbrouck's shoes and should be able to pick up a lot of the slack. Jackson doesn't pass as well as Hasbrouck or notch as nice of a steal rate, but he would appear to be a slightly more effective scorer. Ron Moore is solid at point as Ryan Rossiter is in the paint, and forwards Alex Franklin and Edwin Ublies likely should and will be featured in the offense a little more. Freshman 6-8 Oderah Anosike & 6-0 Jonathan Breeden will help off the bench. Otherwise, there's not a lot of depth, but coach Fran McCaffrey tends to ride his starters hard anyway. However, benchrider 6-5 sophomore Owen Wignot did hit 40% of his threes last year, and might see some more minutes as a result.

18. Tulsa- Finally, a team other than Memphis should walk away with the Conference-USA crown. 7-0 Jerome Jordan will be the focus of most of the media attention, as well NBA scouts, and rightfully so. Ben Uzoh (assists & steals) and Justin Hurtt (shooting) do some good things from the backcourt, but overall, the returnees not-named-Jordan aren't very impressive. Glenn Andrews should probably not shoot as much as he does, and forward Bishop Wheatley shoots just fine, but doesn't contribute a lot else. 6-1 recruit Donte Medder is probably Tulsa's point guard of the future, and 6-6 Bryson Pope could contribute this season, too. And who knows? To my eyes they both will have considerable opportunities to earn starting spots by the end of season.

19. Michigan- John Beilein, in just his third year, is challenging Bo Ryan and Tom Izzo for the best Big Ten coach. His work at WVU suggests a marked improvement is to be expected, and that's coming on the heels on a very surprising NCAA berth. Four starters return, including standouts Manny Harris & DeShawn Sims. Harris gets the ink, but Sims is the real key to this team. He plays center (probably too much) and his outside shooting and passing make this offense run. A solid recruiting class led by guards Darius Morris and Matt Vogrich shores up the bench, and it's not unreasonable to expect sophomores Stu Douglass and Zack Novak's games to mature. My numbers have long said the Zack Gibson should get more minutes, but both his free-throw and three-point percentages took a dive last season. We'll see what happens his senior year, but either way, the Wolverines won't be sweating Selection Sunday.

20. South Carolina- This team is not highly rated by most pundits, and it's easy to see why as they lost in the first round of the NIT last year. But they lost to Davidson, who frankly should've been in the NCAA's, and I thought the Gamecocks had an argument for the Big Dance too. They won at Baylor, and tied for second in the SEC standings, and did better in per-possession terms than much-bally-hooed-for-this-season Mississippi State. I think the Gamecocks'll be considerably better this year as they return almost everyone, excepting guards Zam Frederick and former walk-on Branden Conrad, who were by far the team's worst shooters inside the arc. Top 100 recruit 6-4 Lakeem Jackson should help recover some of the Frederick's production on the wing, but Devan Downey and Dominique Archie will produce more, too. Downey in particular has been an underrated star performer. Mike Holmes is very capable in the post, but he really needs some help. I think Sam Muldrow should be able to provide much more of that than he has so far, but 6-9 Juco Jhondre Jefferson and 6-8 junior Austin Steed should to provide more depth. 6-7 swingman Evan Baniulis might be pressed into the starting line-up as a combo-forward starter with Archie, which may be the most likely scenario.

Quick notes on 2009-2010 cbb teams 21-30

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21. Connecticut- There's no doubt about the fact that UConn's going to be bit thin on depth this season. But they've got enough talent, Kemba Walker & Stanley Robinson come to mind, plus experienced vets Jerome Dyson & Gavin Edwards, and a top-notch recruiting class, to remain competitive. I doubt they get a whiff of the Final Four this season, as they desperately need frosh center Alex Oriakhi to be battle-ready, and their perimeter shooting looks to be a little uneven. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see new 6-6 wing Jamal Coombs-McDaniel & 6-2 Darius Smith making immediate impacts either. The real question here is whether center Ater Majok will be eligible in December, or whether he'll continue to be a distracting sideshow.

22. North Carolina- The Tarheels are defending the national championship, but not with the same team they left the floor with in April. I actually wouldn't expect their offense to suffer terribly, but I do think that their defense, which was merely decent in conference play, is going to take a significant step back. The freshmen Roy Williams has brought to Chapel Hill
are tremendous, and having returnees like Marcus Ginyard, Ed Davis, and Deon Thompson is a luxury anyone would like to have, but he's still going to have to rely on relatively inexperienced guards to run the offense. Of more concern is the fact that UNC without Ty Lawson was a much worse defensive team over the last few years, and being without him altogether is going to hurt. And there was this other guy, one who *hit* 249 free-throws last season, who might be missed too. Tyler something. Although I'm sure the freshmen will do well by Heels fans, someday.

23. Northern Iowa-The Panthers tied for first last season in the MVC, won 23 games, return all five starters and eight of their top nine overall. They add three solid recruits, of whom 6-3 Marc Sonnen may end up being their point guard of the future, but for this season 6-4 Juco Antonio Jones might end up starting. While I think UNI has a nice 1-2 combo of Jordan Egsleder and Adam Koch inside, and Kwadzo Ahelegbe and Ali Farokhmanesh are a solid backcourt, there really is room for 6-6 junior Kerwin Dunham to join the starters and explode if given the minutes. If only he could demonstrate a little defense, I bet these Panthers could make the Sweet Sixteen.

24. UCLA- Losing four starters would be a set-back to any team, but for a Bruins' team that was already starting to slip, it really does bring up a lot of questions. Once again, UCLA had one of the most effective offenses in the country last year, even if the pace was fairly slow. Freshmen Tyler Honeycutt and Brendan Lane should step into starting roles alongside Nikola Dragovic, and backcourt duties will likely fall to shooter Michael Roll and
6-1 sophomore point Jerime Anderson. Vets Drew Gordon and James Keefe could step up inside, but if they don't, there's plenty of freshmen to plug in up front. Turnovers are a concern, and actually the defense will probably cause some ugly losses, but I believe in UCLA coach Ben Howland's ability to keep these guys in the national spotlight (for good reasons).

25. Nevada- The Wolfpack looks primed to jump forward, led by Luke Babbitt and Armon Johnson. Along with Joey Shaw, Mailk Cooke, and Brandon Fields, this team looks sharp, if a little short. 6-8 Freshman Devonte Elliott or 6-8 Sophomore Dario Hunt might be able to help with that, tho. The real
question is whether the WAC can get enough respect, coming off of a terrible
year, to get multiple bids so Nevada doesn't feel the extra pressure of *having* to win the conference tourney. This club is not that great at shooting threes, except for Cooke and Babbitt. Actually, there's little that Babbitt doesn't do well, although his 2pt FG% could use an uptick before he thinks about jumping to the pros or anything.

26. Mississippi State- Barry Stewart, Dee Bost, and Jarvis Varnando are a good 1-2-3 combo, and they've got good support as nearly everyone returns and a few solid recruits are added. However, this would be a sweet sixteen team if blue-chip recruit power forward Renardo Sidney wasn't embroiled in a mess of a lawsuit with the NCAA over his eligibility. If this gets solved soon, bump MSU up a few notches. It seems unlikely, tho. This club is a
little vulnerable to second-chance points (which is what happens when you have a top-flight shot-blocker like Varnando), and there's still some turnover problems. This is a solid team, but I still don't know what the ceiling is without Sidney.

27. Clemson- The Tigers knew they were losing Raymond Sykes and KC Rivers after last season, but the surprise loss of Terrence Oglesby really drops this club sweet 16 contention. While 6-9 Milton Jennings could step into the center spot, he's pretty light for the ACC rebounding wars at 210. Fellow frosh 6-6 Noel Johnson should also start, with Trevor Booker and Demontez
Stitt holding down the paint and the point, respectively. Having Oglesby hold down that off-guard slot would've helped, tho, and there's not a lot of depth inside except for 6-8 role player Jerai Grant. They'll be decent, but this is still probably a step back for Clemson this season.

28. Memphis-There was some questioning this offseason as to whether the Tigers will even get to the postseason after coach Calipari bailed (leaving behind yet another vacated Final Four). I think they'll be just fine. Tulsa might be better in the conference, but Memphis won't fall so far. Josh Pastner has done a good job of lining up a fantastic recruiting class for next season, and picked up Duke's Elliott Williams to shore up the backcourt, and he's eligible immediately. He really needs 6-9 Juco Will Coleman to hold down the center spot, because the only other option is benchrider 6-7 Pierre Niles. Doneal Mack is the only returning statrter, and should be joined by Roburt Sallie and Wesley Witherspoon. The Tigers will be fine, just not fantastic for a year or two.

29. Louisville- Freshman point guard Peyton Siva should be the buzz of the Big East by the year's end, but burgeoning star Samardo Samuels and a seemingly endless collection of guards should keep Louisville in the upper half of the conference. Jerry Smith might be this year's Jodie Meeks, and frosh Rakeem Buckles and Stephen Van Treese should shore up the four-spot
for Pitino. I expect the usual Louisville formula of a number of head-scratching losses early and then a late run to secure a NCAA spot, and lots of chatter generated for the next season's squad.

30. Gonzaga- The Zags lose a ton of good players, but Mark Fox has a mid-major giant of a program that just keeps rollin' on. Freshmen Kelly Olynyk won't be able to replace Austin Daye, and Samuel Dower can't do what Josh Heytvelt did, but Matt Bouldin should be this year's star and with
Stephen Gray and Demetri Goodson should ensure that that Bulldogs continue to rule the WCC. GJ Vilarino or Mangisto Arop could be the sleepers that Fox is so good at finding, but a more likely scenario is that Gonzaga just isn't that good this year. This is a bit of a brand-name pick, I have to admit, but don't bet against Fox.

Quick notes on 2009-2010 cbb teams 31-40

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31. Maryland- Maryland had a nice run in the tourneys last March, but their numbers suggest that this performance was an outlier rather than indicative of what how much we should be "fearing the turtle" for the coming year. The home loss to Morgan State was pretty bad, but it was just one of 14 losses they suffered for the year. Furthermore, their in-conference efficiency margin ranked 10th in the ACC, with a relatively poor offense not compensating for a mediocre defense. Maryland returns everyone but Dave Neal, so they should be better than last season, but I wouldn't expect a huge improvement. Freshmen bigs Jordan Williams and James Padgett look to have some adjusting to do, and otherwise this club is still going to pretty small. Sure, Greivis Vasquez should have a good year, but just expect these Terrapins to actually earn last year's successes.

32. Texas A&M-The Aggies look to replace the scoring touch of Josh Carter with talented freshmen wings Naji Hibbert and Khris Middleton. They also bring in 6-8 Kourtney Roberson to help out up front, which should alleviate the early loss of 6-11 Chinemelu Elonu. Donald Sloan and Bryan Davis return to captain this team to greater heights. Although Texas A&M beat BYU to get the second round of the NCAA tournament, I thought that was really the best the Aggies could possibly do last season. I don't think they'll be a radically better team this year, but they'll show more signs of a program on the rise this time around.

33. Creighton- Graduated guards Josh Dotzler & Booker Woodfox will be missed by the Bluejays , but luckily there is a lot of talent left in the backcourt. P'Allen Stinnett is a fine scorer, albeit better from inside the arc than without, and Cavel Witter can run the point just fine, although it'd be nice if he cut down on the turnovers a tad. 6-4 Justin Carter also hits the glass quite well for a 200-pound wing, and 6-9 Kenny Lawson will continue to anchor the paint on both ends of the floor. The only major concern for this year would seem to be outside shooting, but Creighton brought in a bunch of talented frosh and Juco guards, so not only is there depth, but someone should be able to start hitting threes.

34. Akron- The Zips lose a couple of role players, but otherwise have everyone back from last year's 23-win, MAC-championship season. They should be good enough this year to get in without the conference tourney championship. This squad is fairly short overall, with their top players measuring 5-9 (Anthony Hitchens) and 6-6 (Brett McKnight), and the rest of the starters standing at 6-7 (Chris McKnight), 6-2 (Steve McNees), and 5-11 (Daryl Roberts). But they are bringing a highly touted 6-11 freshman Zeke Marshall, who might be able to play the role BJ Mullens did for Ohio State last year.

35. Vanderbilt- John Jenkins is one of the top wing prospects in the country, and should give the Commodores a nice boost off of the bench with his outside shooting. Andrew Ogilivy's continued domination under the basket, along with the return of literally *everyone* would normally mean a natural progression from a weak bubble team to a solid competitive squad contending for a top 25 ranking. I don't think they'll move up too much, because their per-possession defense was pretty mediocre for the SEC (1.04), and I don't see that getting a big improvement. But a year of experience for Brad Tinsley, et al, should mean less turnovers, which should help boost their offense enough to move forward.

36. Northwestern- If Carmody doesn't take NU to its first NCAA tournament berth this year, I don't think he ever will. This club has a great scorer in Kevin Coble, a solid point in Michael Thompson, a defensive wrecker in Jeremy Nash, and a host of sophomore bigs led by John Shurna. Kyle Rowley has the eye-catching size, but don't sleep on the 6-11 Luka Mirkovic either. Craig Moore's effective scoring will be missed, but if either of the incoming freshmen (Drew Crawford & Alex Marcotullio) can provide a little shooting off the bench, the Wildcats should prove worthy of a bid without having to sweat Selection Sunday.

37. Syracuse- Boeheim looks to have great rebounding with Wesley Johnson & Arinze Onuaku, but guard play/turnovers will give the Orange fits. Freshman Brandon Triche and returning vet Scoop Jardine are pretty much all Boeheim has in the backcourt, unless he moves 6-5 Andy Rautins back from the three-spot, and he may have to. Losing Johnny Flynn, Eric Devendorf, and Paul Harris early is going to have a measurable negative impact this year. Luckily, the Big East won't be quite as tough as last season, so the Orange won't get unfairly squeezed out of a shot at a tourney berth.

38. Oklahoma State- A top 10 recruiting class should give a nice boost to the Cowboys. Losing Byron Eaton and Terel Harris won't cause too much grief in Stillwater, but it may seem like OSU is treading water at times this year. I think this season is about building momentum for the future, unless the recruits are even better than advertised. Although wing Roger Franklin may land starting minutes, 5-9 Raymond Penn, 6-9 Torin Walker, and 6-10 Jarred Shaw all may need a year of seasoning before this club starts climbing back up the rankings.

39. Utah State- Don't get me wrong, I don't think that Juco Nate Bendall is going to replace do-everything Gary Wilkinson, and I don't think that USU is going to win the WAC in a walk again. But I think the WAC is going to be a much better conference than last year, and I think the Aggies bring back enough to return to the NCAA's again. Good shooters abound here, and Taj Wesley and Brady Jardine should pick up the slack inside. Jared Quayle is a standout guard who should captain this team to success, and freshmen wings Preston Medlin & Tyrone White should be able to provide some competent depth, at least.

40. Florida State- While I'm not terribly sold on this squad that has graduated its leading scorer as well as its leading rebounder, I think Chris Singleton and Solomon Alabi can pick up the slack so FSU doesn't drop too far. And 6-5 freshman Michael Snaer could be starting from day one. However, what the 'Noles probably need the most is for guards Derwin Kitchen & Luke Loucks to cut way down on the turnovers. That's the one thing that I think could keep FSU out of the tourney, 'cause their defense will probably be quite good again.

Quick notes on 2009-2010 cbb teams 41-50

2009-10-12T14:34:00.000-07:00

Starting off my preview of the 2009-2010 year with the last at-large teams to make into the NCAA tourney. Here's some quick thoughts on each team.

41. Ohio State- A lot of pundits have the Buckeyes in the top 25 due to Matta's brilliance and the return of David Lighty, but I really think everyone's underestimating the loss of Mullens as a cudgel off the bench, and over-rating Lighty's impact a bit as well. Lighty should help the perimeter defense, but the interior game is taking a big hit without Mullens.

42. Old Dominion- If ODU can fend off Hofstra, I think they'll show they belong in the NCAA tourney. Noone should risk losing the auto-bid, but maybe, just maybe, they could get in without it. ODU's no slouch in coming off a 25-win season, and returning eight of their top nine players, but they do have mid-major height, and this will probably keep them from getting too far in the NCAA tourney.

43. Oregon State- The turnaround continues. They get nearly everyone back, and add a great recruiting class. The new depth should wear down the opposition, and hopefully improve the not-so-great defense a few notches. Calvin Haynes is pretty decent, but is Roland Schaftenaar the new Pittsnogle?

44. Seton Hall- High-visibility transfers+ returning scorers=??? Chemistry is the big question, although how good the Hall is at getting defensive stops is another key to watch early. If new arrivals Herb Pope and Keon Lawrence can provide a little defense and be happy with somewhat-limited roles in the offense (alongside Jeremy Hazell, Eugene Harvey, and Robert Mitchell), it'll be dancin' time again for the Pirates.

45. Richmond- If health holds, they've got enough talent to shoot way up this list. I'm suspecting Dan Geriot's knee recovery is slow enough to keep them from getting further than the NCAA's, tho. A fantastic backcourt is keyed by Kevin Anderson.

46. Illlinois- I'm not very high on the Illini (even now that I'm enrolled there), but I think they'll have enough to squeak into the Big Dance. Honestly, if they can lure former walk-on Jeff Jordan back on the team, it would significantly help their guard play. Right now, it's McCamey outside and Mike Davis inside and not a lot else. The frosh wings make or break this team.

47. Kansas State-Don't look now, but another program is starting to gain momentum in "bloody Kansas." Clemente may have hit the now-viral shot, but backcourt mate Jacob Pullen is pretty important, too. Wing Dominique Sutton may have a really big year, but center Luis Colon needs to continue his improvement.

48. Cincinnati- Deonta Vaughn is getting some help this season from slasher Lance Stepheson and new point Cashmere Wright, and with the maturation of Yancy Gates, this should result in a tourney bid. Big caveat here, tho- if the Bearcats aren't able to shore up their in-conference defense (1.10 points given up per possession last season), they won't even be on the bubble.

49. LaSalle- This is one I may rue, but I think they may just be due. If Vernon Goodridge had gotten another year, it would've helped shore up the interior defense, but the Explorers have a lot of firepower returning. If you get a chance, catch future pro Rodney Green with the ball.

t-50. San Diego State- Transfers should give this mediocre club a boost onto the bubble. Watch the new blood from Pepperdine (Thomas & Shelley) in particular. Illinois transfer Brian Carlwell could have a good impact as well. They'll have their troubles early, as they do lose 4 senior starters. But I think there's enough new blood to get in the NCAA's.

t-50. Western Kentucky- I boldly predict they'll have no big upsets this year, but should continue their conference dominance. With four returning starters and a balanced recruiting class, they'll be set to keep the Sun Belt under their heel. Sergio Kusch is a near-perfect combo forward, and Jeremy Evans will be an elite shot-blocker this season.

The turning of the leaves

2009-10-10T09:56:00.001-07:00

means my thoughts are slowly turning to basketball. Other Hoosier sporting-clubs appear to struggling somewhat. I watched a little of the OSU beatdown, enough to be impressed with Doss, but also to confirm that IU still is a gutsy football team that doesn't have enough horses to make a run for the top of the Big Ten. Also, the Hoosier soccer team, after appearing to finally get it together, gets shut out in two consecutive losses. I'll still be rooting for both teams, tho.

I'm working on a reworked top 50 preview of the college basketball season, but it's going a bit slow, understandably. I'll have teams 41-50 out soon.

Busy time

2009-09-09T16:02:00.000-07:00

for me personally, not so much for sports. But I've not been updating. For those of you following, here's the latest news:

Basketball:
IU nabs second recruit for next season, up-and-coming 6-4 Victor Oladipo commits alongside forward David Williams. The guy reeks athleticism and plays above the rim. Also, Crean lets fans know about the latest news on the individual workouts, the good news is that Mo Creek is impressing everybody (and now that he's eligible, he can really help this season).

IU Football:
IU hung on for a narrow win against Eastern Kentucky, and looks to suffer through another tough year.

IU Soccer:
A rough start against great competition, with a 0-0 tie against St. John's and a heartbreaking 1-2 loss against Wake Forest. Although I've not watched all of the IU-WF game, the Hoosiers look like their old selves. Once again the Hoosiers appear to have a tough defense (although notably uneven against Wake), good possession control and transition attack (although Purdie doesn't have the speed or the touch to make defenses pay as far as I can tell), and the ability to generate a lot of shots (with very few goals to show for it). And boy, does Wake have some talented players. So far, Norman was all over the place. Hagedorn, who's not bad, couldn't handle him. But Alexander looked pretty good on our side as well.
Overall, tho, this is the team I'm used to in the Classic, and often these sorts of Hoosier teams end up in the College Cup. Here's hoping.

Big Ten Preview notes

2009-08-25T10:09:00.000-07:00

Espn's summer shootaround for the the Big Ten is up, and I have a few thoughts about it.

1) Their expected hierarchy of Big 10 teams this season is not surprising, while they believe in Minnesota a little less than I do and in Ohio State a lot more, but otherwise it looked pretty similar to my own thoughts on the subject.

2) Ohio State is thought to be a title contender, and a significant justification is that the loss of BJ Mullens will mean almost nothing. My own per-possession efficiency numbers saw Mullens as a significant contributor to the Buckeyes (in fact, one of the best in the Big 10). Furthermore, I would suggest that in fact the loss of a top-notch seven-footer without a significant replacement (count me as dubious about Sarkipoulos' ability to be a major impact in the conference) is going to *really* hurt the Buckeyes' balance on offense. A team that has only perimeter options on offense usually ends up in the NIT. There were plenty of conference games I saw where Mullens came in and made big plays, and unbalanced opposing defenses. It's great example of per-possession versus per-game impact. I do think the Buckeyes will squeak into the NCAA's, because the defense will be balanced enough due to the return of Lighty and Lauderdale ,and because Matta's a stellar coach. But they're a year away from title contention.

3) Part of the undervaluing of Minnesota is seen right there in Doug Gottlieb's surprise that forward Paul Carter could be an up-and-comer. Referring back to the per-possession stats again, Carter was actually second-best in the entire Big 10 during conference play. Gottlieb refers to Carter's 21% shooting, but that's actually just Carter's 3-point shooting, of which he thankfully didn't do too much. Carter's shooting percentage was still mediocre 38% on twos, but his FT% was a solid 77% and he made more free-throws than field goals. Carter wasn't a great passer, but his real value was in having a nice steal/block combo and his furious rebounding ability, getting 4.5 and an eye-opening 2 off. rebs/game despite playing only 16 min./game. Freshman Royce White will probably start for the Gophers, but that's a testament to how deep Tubby's squad is going to be this season. It's no surprise to me that Carter did well when given minutes this summer.

Dog Days of Summer

2009-08-11T08:59:00.000-07:00

The weeks are dwindling until the return of football, which for me, means at least there'll be some interesting sports chatter. I don't really expect any wins out of IU Football. However I do expect some wins out of IU Men's Soccer.

The Hoosier kickers are rated #7, and so they should be a contender again for the College Cup. However, watching some DVR'd games from last season, the IU offense just seems to bog down, and has been prone to do so since Lee Nguyen jumped to the pros. There's a lot of talent on this team, and certainly the talented freshmen might give a spark or Will Bruin might put it all together this year and become the new Chris Klein, but the midfield currently worries me a little bit. Alexander and Adlard are tough and have some touch, but there's precious little jogo bonito in their games. Unless frosh Bick or Basecke, or maybe even local boy Konstanski can jump-start the transition attack, I think these Hoosiers are a longshot for getting to the title game. But I'm still excited to see what this team can deliver.

In IU Basketball news, another recruit joins Matt Carlino for the 2011 class. Top 100 recruit 6-6 Austin Etherington looks to be a solid piece of the Hoosier rotation in his time at IU. Also, the Puerto Rico tipoff bracket is now online. Looking at the match-ups, it's hard to see the Hoosiers walking away with 2 wins here. I'd guess that 1-2 is the most likely outcome, but maybe a little luck and pluck combined with the endless energy of freshmen nets Crean a surprise victory there.

Summer dreams

2009-07-09T09:33:00.000-07:00

Former Hoosier dunks on LeBron, but you won't see the video:

IU Basketball:
Last I heard, Crean was still waiting on two of the best recruits (Mo Creek- the most "ready" and Bawa Muniru- "the most potential") to get eligible. Muniru just needs to finish a class, but Creek needs to pass qualifying exams. Crossing my fingers- the Hoosiers need everyone next season.

IU Soccer:
Evidently ranked #7, which leaves outside the Final Four again next season. Todd Yeagley, who I played with in High School (and did some asst. coaching of me- not that there was much he could do with my skill set), is now the head coach at Wisconsin. I wish him well there, but I still root for the Hoosiers first.

IU Football:
Just looked it up to confirm my suspicion, and yes, IU's the worst all-time team in the conference. The Hoosiers' .424 winning percentage is below even Northwestern's .435. That's pretty sad. I root for those Hoosier footballers, but they always seem to break your heart. Firing Bill Mallory was the worst thing IU sports ever did to their football program.

USA Soccer
After the thrilling comeback to get into the semifinals on the Confed Cup, beating Egypt 3-0, USA then stunned #1 Spain 2-0 before leading Brazil 2-0 at the half. Brazil came back and won 3-2, but the Americans were really playing with Brazil throughout the whole game. Yes, Brazil's midfield is way better and did a better job with possession, but the US has a good defense and a great counterattack now. Great to see, and watch out for these Yanks in the World Cup next year!

Whimsical Top 50 for 2009-2010

2009-06-26T11:42:00.001-07:00

We've gotten to that point in the summer, where most of the post-NBA draft fallout has settled, a few of the weird off-season events have occurred (Iowa's implosion, Illinois' former walk-on Jeff Jordan walks-off the team), and we all start to get an idea of what the landscape of college basketball is going to look like next season. So, it's time for some ridiculous prognostications! In the last few years, I correctly picked UNC for '09, incorrectly picked Tennessee for '08 (but hey, Memphis 2nd), and correctly Florida for '07. So, without further ado, here's my why-the-heck not top 50 for 2009-2010:

1. Kansas
2. Tennessee
3. Villanova
4. Purdue
5. Duke
6. Washington
7. Kentucky
8. Michigan State
9. West Virginia
10. Butler
11. Texas
12. Clemson
13. California
14. Minnesota
15. Mississippi State
16. Wake Forest
17. Siena
18. Vanderbilt
19. Brigham Young
20. Dayton
21. South Carolina
22. Notre Dame
23. Tulsa
24. Nevada
25. Connecticut
26. Michigan
27. Northern Iowa
28. UCLA
29. Gonzaga
30. Memphis
31. Maryland
32. Louisville
33. Oklahoma State
34. Akron
35. North Carolina
36. Cincinnati
37. Creighton
38. Texas A&M
39. Utah State
40. Northwestern
41. Boston College
42. Seton Hall
43. Kansas State
44. Ohio State
45. Old Dominion
46. LaSalle
47. Oregon State
48. Western Kentucky
49. Hofstra
t-50. Illinois
t-50. Florida State