Thursday, December 06, 2007

Fearless Predictions for Saturday!

My thoughts on Indiana hosting Kentucky:

Eric Gordon's gonna play. Bracey Wright tried to insert himself against Purdue when his back was wrenched. Gordon's just got a "soft tissue bruise" which is a bruise. It's probably making him wince a bit this week, but I can't imagine by Saturday he's not gonna want to suit up. Already, Sampson said "he's fine." He's gonna play, maybe not start, but I'd be surprised for him not to see significant minutes.

That said, IU still is facing a very tough defensive squad, and one that's had a week to prep for the big game. IU looks better in the very early rpi numbers, and my own breakdown of UK's opponents, even after giving UNC a tough game, look similar. IU's played competition that's overall a little better (IU's opponents' average 3.5 wins & 2.8 losses vs. D-I opposition, while UK's foes average 3.3 wins & 3.0 losses), which would account for UK's slight per-possession point margin advantage.

Kentucky: 1.05 pppg- 0.84opppg= +0.21
Indiana: 1.12pppg-0.92 opppg= +0.20

This margin is insignificant anyway, and IU's home-court advantage, even with Gordon probably not 100% the scoring machine he's been, means a Hoosier victory. I can't imagine the Hoosiers not getting up for this one.

IU beats Kentucky (finally): 74-70


At 8:06 PM, Blogger Robbie Allen said...

Hi Devin,
I've developed a new website you might like: I'm interested in any feedback! I'm looking to add tempo-neutral stats in the coming months.


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