Wednesday, December 20, 2006

One last post before the Holiday break

Here's today's Big 10 power poll:

1.Wisconsin (11-1)
Great win against Pittsburgh, and even better news is the awakening of Brian Butch. Alando Tucker may be Big 10 POY, but the most critical player may end up being Butch.

2. Ohio State (10-1)
Sooo much talent. And Oden is very good. But Conley, Cook, Lewis, & Hunter are pretty darn good, too. And that's not even counting last year's best conference point guard, Jamar Butler, or the newly productive PF Ivan Harris.

3. Michigan St. (11-2)
Cutting these guys a break because they're missing two starters. But they are really playing well, and that turnover problem could really hurt them in Big 10 play. Ready to drop.

4.Purdue (11-2)
They lost at Butler, but so did Indiana, so the Boilers hang on to the #4 spot. Barely.

5.Indiana (6-3)
Good home win against SIU has them not only looking like a NCAA team, but also like a very good defensive team.

6.Illinois (11-2)

They beat Missouri, but just barely, and with everyone healthy. The Illini will have to play better than that to get a NCAA bid.

7.Michigan (11-1)
Creampuff schedule starts to draw to a close with a visit to #1 UCLA. It will likely be a rude awakening.

8.Northwestern (7-3)

That Kevin Coble kid is starting to look really good. But their last two wins have been against non D-I opponents.

9. Iowa (5-6)

Not good, but they handled Iowa St. by 18, who just got beat by OSU by 19.

10. Minnesota (5-7)

Still probably the worst team, but they've had a competitive stretch after the firing of Monson, and should be recognized.

11. Penn State (7-4)

I know, it's a big drop, but they've got Claxton back and aren't playing any better. The only thing they have to show for themselves besides a home win against St. Joseph's is a close loss at Georgia Tech. Maybe last year was a fluke.

IU's current ranking:

Blue Ribbon Ranking=19

IU opponents' record (not including the IU outcomes, but including tonight's game against Western Michigan)
58-33 (.637)

And to practice what I preach, here's some tempo-free notes about this Hoosier squad going into tonight's game.
(through 9 games)

IU points per possession: 1.053
IU's Opponents' points per: 0.865

IU's total possessions=605
IU possessions per game (pspg): 67.2
IU's opp. pspg: 66.6


So, IU's running about 67 possessions per game, which is on the slow side given that pre-conference games are generally played at a faster rate than conference games, which average around 68. On the other hand, the Big 10 is one of the slower conferences due to the deliberate coaching styles. So this may be about the speed we see for the season.

Western Michigan, on the other hand:

total possessions: 706

pspg= 70.6

WMU Opp.'s pspg=712
WMU Opspg= 71.2

average= 70.9= ~71

WMU ppp= .999
WMU Opp. ppp= 1.046

Western Michigan's Opponents records (not including the IU outcome, but including tonight's game):

69-31 (.690)

What does it all mean? Well, WMU may have a slightly tougher schedule, but they're considerably less apt defensively than Indiana, and just a little less offensively.
What does it all mean? Well, basically, at home, it's a game that IU's defense should win, even if the Hoosiers haven't regained their shooting touch.

But probably any idiot off the street could've told you that.

[Bonus Individual possessions calculations example]

DJ White has played 267 minutes, out of 360 possible.

267/360 x 605=449.

DJ White has had 449 possessions or 49.7 pspg that he is on the floor of IU's ~67 pspg.


At 2:36 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I created a new blog entitled "Coast to Coast with Matt Barker | An NCAA Basketball Blog,"
currently residing at, in which have included a link to
you web site and I was wondering if you could reciprocate?

Thanks and Happy New Year,
Matt Barker


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