The quest for the At-large bid

Heh.
As soon as I plug the mid-majority report rpi, it gets pulled b/c of lack of funds. I can't help Kyle out at the moment, but if you can and plan to read a good c-ball website, please throw him a few paypal bucks.


Here what I think of as a comprehensive list of those teams competing for the 34 at-large bids the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee awards:

The Key:
listed by
Conference:
Team overall record (conference record) #RPI ranking {# Sagarin ranking}

lock= win the home games, and you are in.
good= If there are no major slip-ups, or too many road losses, you have a very good chance of getting.
?= Can play your way in with some big wins, or a good winning streak.
NO= highly unlikely to get any bid but one to the NIT, short of winning your conference tourney.

Atlantic-10:
George Washington 16-1 (6-0) #44 {#22} lock
Xavier 13-4 (5-2) #51 {#24} good
Temple 11-7 (4-3) #39 {#55} ?
St. Joseph's 9-8 (3-4) #41 {#49} NO

ACC:
Duke 19-1 (7-0) #1 {#1} lock
North Carolina State 16-4 (5-2) #31 {#13} lock
Maryland 14-5 (4-2) #28 {#28} lock
Miami-Fla. 13-8 (5-3) #67 {#67} ?
Boston College 16-4 (4-3) #24 {#25} lock
North Carolina 12-5 (3-3) #38 {#31} good
Virginia 10-7 (4-3) #62 {#65} ?
Florida State 12-5 (3-4) #94 {#46} ?

Big East:
West Virginia 15-4 (6-0) #32 {#18} lock
Connecticut 19-1 (7-1) #9 {#2} lock
Villanova 16-2 (7-1) #3 {#4} lock
Pittsburgh 17-2 (6-2) #5 {#8} lock
Georgetown 15-4 (6-2) #29 {#12} lock
Marquette 15-6 (5-3) #30 {#42} good
Cincinnati 15-7 (4-4) #21 {#26} good
Seton Hall 12-6 (3-3) #37 {#52} good
Syracuse 15-6 (3-4) #33 {#37} good
St. John's 10-8 (3-4) #104 {#91} NO
Rutgers 13-7 (3-4) #73 {#61} ?
Louisville 14-7 (2-6) #63 {#53} ?

Big South:
Winthrop 14-5 (8-1) #81 {#63} ?

Big 10:
Illinois 20-2 (6-2) #7 {#6} lock
Iowa 16-5 (5-2) #10 {#21} lock
Michigan 15-3 (5-2) #17 {#15} good
Wisconsin 15-6 (5-3) #8 {#27} lock
Indiana 12-5 (4-3) #20 {#16} good
Michigan State 16-5 (4-3) #6 {#17} lock
Ohio State 15-3 (4-3) #15 {#10} lock

Big 12:
Texas 17-3 (5-1) #14 {#3} lock
Colorado 15-3 (5-2) #47 {#19} ?
Kansas 14-6 (5-2) #60 {#36} ?
Oklahoma 13-4 (4-2) #27 {#35} lock
Nebraska 14-6 (4-3) #95 {#105} NO
Kansas State 12-5 (3-3) #49 {#60} good
Iowa State 13-7 (3-4) #57 {#58} ?
Missouri 10-8 (3-4) #86 {#118} NO
Texas A&M 13-5 (3-4) #106 {#76} NO
Oklahoma State 12-9 (2-5) #82 {#77} NO

Big West:
UC-Irvine 12-8 (8-0) #129 {#123} NO

CAA:
George Mason 15-5 (9-2) #35 {#40} good
NC-Wilmington 16-6 (9-2) #43 {#54} ?
Old Dominion 15-6 (8-3) #40 {#62} ?
Virginia Commonw. 14-5 (8-3) #58 {#80} ?

C-USA:
Memphis 19-2 (5-0) #2 {#5} lock
UTEP 12-5 (5-0) #125 {#121} NO
UAB 15-4 (5-1) #46 {#48} ?

Horizon:
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 16-4 (5-1) #18 {#44} good

Ivy:
Pennsylvania 10-6 (2-0) #118 {#71} NO

MAAC:
Iona 15-4 (9-2) #45 {#69} ?
Manhattan 13-6 (9-2) #56 {#90} ?

MAC:
Akron 15-4 (8-1) #75 {#70} ?
Kent State 14-6 (8-1) #126 {#89} NO
Ohio 12-5 (6-2) #89 {#78} ?

MVC:
Northern Iowa 19-4 (9-3) #13 {#20} lock
Creighton 15-5 (9-3) #25 {#29} good
Southern Illinois 16-5 (9-2) #23 {#38} good
Wichita State 17-5 (8-3) #26 {#23} good
Missouri State 13-6 (6-5) #42 {#33} good
Bradley 12-7 (6-5) #55 {#47} ?

MWC:
Air Force 17-3 (5-2) #48 {#45} good
San Diego State 14-6 (7-1) #77 {#79} ?

Pac 10:
UCLA 17-4 (7-2) #12 {#30} lock
Arizona 13-7 (6-3) #16 {#39} good
California 12-6 (6-3) #72 {#59} ?
Stanford 10-7 (6-3) #92 {#92} NO
Washington 16-4 (5-4) #54 {#34} good

Patriot:
Bucknell 16-3 (7-0) #34 {#32} lock

SEC:
LSU 14-5 (6-0) #22 {#11} lock
Tennessee 14-3 (5-1) #4 {#9} lock
Florida 19-2 (5-2) #19 {#7} lock
Kentucky 14-6 (4-2) #36 {#43} ?
Alabama 11-7 (4-2) #52 {#50} ?
Vanderbilt 12-5 (3-3) #50{ #56} ?
Arkansas 14-6 (3-4) #59 {#41} ?

Southern:
Davidson 13-7 (6-2) #85 {#103} NO

Southland:
Northwestern St. 13-6 (6-1) #78 {#88} ?

Sun Belt:
Western Kentucky 16-5 (8-1) #64 {#74} ?

WCC:
Gonzaga 17-3 (7-0) #11 {#14} lock

WAC:
Louisiana Tech 14-7 (7-1) #68 {#106} ?
Utah State 15-4 (6-2) #45 {#57} ?
Nevada 15-5 (5-3) #53 {#66} ?

A couple of notes:

Good RPI/Sagarin ratings won't overcome mediocre record, for example: Temple & St. Joesph's. Temple can get in with a nice winning streak, but St. Joe's is NIT fodder at best.

Cincinnati looks good, but after losing Armein Kirkland, they have to prove they belong, and the back end of their schedule is tough. The Bearcats could well finish 2-6 down the stretch, and even a 3-5 finish would leave them on pretty shaky ground.

Michigan & Indiana could both suffer melt-downs, and both have before under their current coaches. Watch these two team's road games carefully as they play in the nation's toughest conference (7 teams in the RPI top 30!).

I also kinda get the feeling that every team in the country is a bit over-rated this year. There just isn't a feeling of much depth or strength out there, but maybe I'm spoiled from last year's great season. Still, the only league races worth watching this season are the Big Ten and the Big East.

Indiana hosts Northwestern tonight. Lose this one, and Davis may not make it through the week. Davis supposedly premiering a new starting line-up, but just about any change couldn't hurt right about now.