Friday, June 05, 2009

Big Ten Individual Player Projections for 2010

I've once again reviewed the 150 players slated to play basketball in the Big Ten conference season, and run down some basic rankings here.

This is mostly based on my effective per-possession production numbers, that I just released. There are a few exceptions, such as Robbie Hummel & Raymar Morgan, who I expect to be much better next year (and healthier), and actual Big Ten POY Kalin Lucas, who take more of a starring role next season. I also slightly downgraded UIUC's Demetri McCamey & Iowa's Jarryd Cole for having to switch positions to shore up their respective teams' weak points.

In the freshmen section (at the bottom of the rankings), I predicted a few starters and bolded their names. Derek Elston & Christian Watford of Indiana, Gerrick Sherman of MSU, DJ Richardson for Illinois, and Cully Payne for Iowa. This isn't to say that a number of the other freshmen won't get serious, even starting minutes, but I've always held that players like Royce White, et al,shouldn't be counted on to dominate their positions in their first year. But that's my bias, which is occasionally very wrong (my doubting of Greg Oden's first-year performance comes to mind).

Btw, blogger has decided my ratings shoot-off blog is spam. I've requested them to unlock it, but that's just weird.


At 7:03 AM, Blogger jdjd123 said...

At MSU, most observers think Summers will start over Allen.

Manny Harris as a PF?

At 7:47 AM, Blogger Indiana Fan said...

Hey jd, thanks for commenting.

Re: Summers, that's a tough one, because I honestly think he's a better option than Allen at the 2-spot as well. However, I think because Summers will also get minutes at the 3-spot when Morgan rests (or plays the 4), so my thinking was Allen was the MSU player who will get the most minutes at the off-guard. But Summers should get the actual starting nod over Allen.

And I knew somebody would remark about Harris or Evan Turner being slotted as power forwards (and rightly so). Harris is obviously a wing on offense, and Turner pretty much played as a scoring point for OSU. But on defense, their teams relied on them to get into the paint and rebound. To fit in the top five minutes-played guys on each team, Harris & Turner had to be the 4-spots for their respective clubs.


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