Thursday, October 21, 2010

Projected 2011 NCAA teams

Since the official preseason top 25 came out at USA Today, I figured I'd better go ahead and post something for 2011 picks. Enjoy!

1. Michigan State (Big Ten*)
1. Kansas State
2. Duke (Atlantic Coast*)
3. Kansas State (Big XII*)
4. Pittsburgh (Big East*)
5. Florida (Southeastern*)
6. West Virginia (Big East)
7. Illinois (Big Ten)
8. Butler (Horizon*)
9. Kentucky (SEC)
10. Purdue (Big Ten)
11. Baylor (Big XII)
12. Virginia Tech (ACC)
13. Washington (Pacific 10*)
14. Villanova (Big East)
15. Temple (Atlantic 10*)
16. Gonzaga (West Coast*)
17. Kansas (Big XII)
18. San Diego State (Mountain West*)
19. Utah State (Western Athletic*)
20. Missouri (Big XII)
21. Virginia Commonwealth (Colonial Athletic*)
22. UNLV (MWC)
23. Kansas (Big XII)
24. Syracuse (Big East)
25. Wisconsin (Big Ten)
26. Richmond (A-10)
27. Tennessee (SEC)
28. Ohio State (Big Ten)
29. Brigham Young (MWC)
30. Wichita State (Missouri Valley*)
31. St. Louis (A-10)
32. Memphis (Conference-USA*)
33. Florida State (ACC)
34. Minnesota (Big Ten)
35. Clemson (ACC)
36. Wofford (Southern*)
37. Texas (Big XII)
38. UTEP (C-USA)
39. Arizona (Pac 10)
40. Murray State (Ohio Valley*)
41. Mississippi (SEC)
42. Dayton (A-10)
43. Georgetown (Big East)
44. Missouri State (MVC)
45. Old Dominion (CAA)
46. Akron (Mid-American*)
47. Texas A&M (Big XII)
48. Seton Hall (Big East)
49. Georgia (SEC)
50. Iona (Metro Atlantic Athletic*)
51. Southern California (Pac 10)
52. St. John's (Big East)
53. North Carolina State (ACC)
54. New Mexico (MWC)
55. Northwestern (Big Ten)

56. Pacific (Big West*)
57. Princeton (Ivy*)
58. Weber State (Big Sky*)
59. Oral Roberts (Summit*)
60. North Texas (Sun Belt*)
61. East Tennessee State (Atlantic Sun*)
62. Stephen F. Austin (Southland*)
63. Maine (America East*)
64. Bucknell (Patriot*)
65. UNC-Asheville (Big South*)
66. South Carolina State (Mid-Eastern Atlantic*)
67. Long Island (Northeast*)
68. Jackson State (Southwestern Athletic*)

The weakest teams are obviously #51-55, and I've noted expected conference winners with an asterisk. Ruminations on why I chose the top seeds are forthcoming.

Projected 2011 NIT teams

Alabama (SEC)
Arizona State (Pac 10)
Boston College (ACC)
Cleveland State (Horizon)
Colorado (Big XII)
Cincinnati (Big East)
College of Charleston (SoCon)
Colorado State (MWC)
Connecticut (Big East)
Creighton (MVC)
Duquesne (A-10)
George Mason (CAA)
Hofstra (CAA)
Indiana (Big Ten)
Louisville (Big East)
Loyola Marymount (WCC)
Marquette (Big East)
Maryland (ACC)
Marshall (C-USA)
Morehead State (OVC)
North Carolina (ACC)
Northern Iowa (MVC)
Ohio (MAC)
Oklahoma State (Big XII)
Siena (MAAC)
Southern Mississippi (C-USA)
Texas Tech (Big XII)
UCLA (Pac 10)
Vanderbilt (SEC)
Washington State (Pac 10)
Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)
Xavier (A-10)

Most likely to move up: Vanderbilt, Northern Iowa, and Boston College
Most likely to move down: UCLA, George Mason, and Maryland

20 Projected 2011 CBI/CIT quality teams

Appalachian State (SoCon)
Arkansas (SEC)
Austin Peay (OVC)
Bradley (MVC)
Charlotte (A-10)
Detroit (Horizon)
Drexel (CAA)
Houston Baptist (Great West*)
Miami (FL) (ACC)
Miami (OH) (MAC)
Michigan (Big Ten)
Middle Tennessee State (Sun Belt)
Mississippi State (SEC)
New Mexico State (WAC)
Notre Dame (Big East)
Oregon State (Pac 10)
Penn State (Big Ten)
Stanford (Pac 10)
Wright State (Horizon)

Houston Baptist should win the Great West, but the CBI or CIT will be their reward. The most likely teams to move up from this group to the NIT or NCAA tourney would be Penn State, Arkansas, and Charlotte.

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Hummel out for year

My pick for Big Ten preseason POY is out with another ACL injury. Purdue fans have to be shaking their heads. After Michigan State's miserable off-season (well, just the last couple of months) of Izzo-to-NBA rumors, injuries, rape accusations, the suspension of Korie Lucious, Chris Allen's transfer, and then the possibly season-ending injury to Russell Byrd, I was ready to bump Purdue up to #1. Then...

To paraphrase from earlier conversations- Hummel out- BFD? The biggest. Few players have such an impact of national championship hopes. All respect to the Boilers, they'll still be good, a top ten team certainly. But seriously, you can't minimize the impact this guy had on this program, and the fear that he struck into opponents. When Hummel was just a freshman, in a game that determined the regular-season conference champion, Bo Ryan benched senior Brian Butch because Hummel was torching him, and Butch couldn't reciprocate on the other end. Moore and Johnson and the recruits should keep Purdue playing at a high level, but subtracting three starters from last year's team is going to hurt.

Now, I'm having fits trying to figure out who should be #1. Duke has the most talent, but it's just not the same team that barely won the tourney last April (and let's face it, got to the Final Four through on the easiest road of any team that got there). I just think their luck (and offensive rebounding) doesn't hold up twice in a row. Pittsburgh looks to be the class of the Big East... but they aren't very scary. There's no intimidation factor there, heck- IU beat them last year- and Jamie Dixon's never even been to a Final Four. Of course, Kansas State is another possible top pick, but they just looked lethargic in their loss to Butler last spring- when a Final Four berth was on the line. Florida or Kentucky could be top teams, but if UK couldn't do it with Wall & Cousins, are they really going to do it with Knight and (maybe) Kanter? Florida still has to prove they can make stops.