College Basketball Predictions - Big Ten edition

Just throwing out my picks for the Big Ten Race 1. Purdue - I thought the Boilers were a little lucky last year (MSU just gift-wrapped them a road win). But outside of the home loss to Michigan, there wasn't really a game that they weren't positioned to win during their 11-3 run to finish conference play. They return all of their major pieces and add two key freshmen. There are high hopes for Jaden Ivey following his strong finish and summer FIBA play (I have doubts about him turning into Ayo, at least for this season), but specifically the two-man pivot of Williams and Edey seems nearly unsolvable for conference foes. This is honestly Matt Painter's best chance to get to the Final Four... maybe ever? 2. Michigan - Juwan Howard has brought in a stellar recruiting class, Hunter Dickinson and Eli Brooks are as good as anyone in the conference at their positions, and transfer Devante Jones should pick up where Mike Smith left off at point. Whether the Wolverines are able to grab a conference crown and get to the Final Four will depend on how the freshmen adapt to the learning curve (specifically wings Houstan and Bufkin) and how good of a fit Jones turns out to be as a facilitator of the offense. 3. Ohio State - Strangely, I think the Buckeyes are being a little underrated this year - and this might have something to do with their first-game flameout in the NCAA tourney last Spring. It's easy enough for me to bracket that loss as having something to due with Kyle Young's injury (he returns), but breakout star Duane Washington Jr. has moved on to the NBA. That said, outside of point CJ Walker, no other key contributors moved on, and Holtmann brought in an impressive array of transfers and freshmen. EJ Liddell should have a more talented team surrounding him, with Jamari Wheeler stepping in at point and true freshman wing Malachi Branham getting heavy minutes. Even transfers Joey Brunk and Cedric Russell may find the rotation tough to crack. I'm watching for Justice Sueing to elevate his game and Jimmy Sotos to provide a steady backcourt presence off the bench. 4. Illinois - Obviously, getting Kofi Cockburn back for another year was huge. Exploiting the Covid exception to keep return super-seniors Damonte Williams and Trent Frazier was also pretty key. There's a few decent freshmen arriving, and it'll be interesting to see redshirted transfer Austin Hutcherson can carve out a space for himself in the rotation like Jacob Grandison did last year. However, whether the Illini are a Final Four contender or just a solid NCAA tournement team will fall totally on Andre Curbelo - both the best and the most promising returning point guard in the conference. I would say if you don't enjoy watching Curbelo, then you don't like basketball - but I can see how his turnovers might frustrate some folks. 5. Michigan State - The Spartans almost had their worst year in perhaps all of Tom Izzo's tenure as head coach. They notched a lot of big wins down the stretch, though, and had eventual Final Four team UCLA on the ropes before finally fading in overtime in the NCAA tournament. Although some great new pieces join MSU this season (Max Christie on the wing is probably the biggest impact guy), but the most important will be transfer Tyson Walker and freshman Jaden Akins who will be taking over point guard duties from the departed Rocket Watts and Foster Loyer. The other thing to watch will be what Izzo does with the center position, as he had the highly-effective Marcus Bingham on a leash. Mady Sissoko also looked promisingin his, uh, 5 minutes/game last year. If those core positions are stabilized, MSU could jump up into conference title contention. 6. Indiana - I'm slightly more optimistic than most on the Hoosiers this year. I think IU has a good shot at top 5 in the conference and winning a game in the NCAA tourney, and has the talent on hand to make some real noise this year. The Hoosiers seemed like a solid NCAA team until the late-season slide, which seemed largely due to the frustrating final spiral of the Archie Miller regime - which I think is tempering expectations for this season (granted, that closing stretch was an unqualified disaster). Coach Woodson getting Trayce Jackson-Davis to return was pretty huge, as there may not be a better player in the conference. Strangely, interior play was not solid for the Hoosiers last season, but that should be shored up with the return of Race Thompson and transfer Michael Durr. Woodson even got help on the perimeter with shooter Miller Kopp, point Xavier Johnson, and freshman wing Tamar Bates. Transfer Parker Stewart also stuck around and should claim a starting spot. This roster should have some resilience, and if Coach Woodson is as good on in-game management as advertised, Hoosier fans can start getting excited. 7. Maryland - The Terrapins are expected to be a national player this season with their mix of returnees and newcomers, but I am a little skeptical. There's only three returnees from last year's rotation - the overachieving Donta Scott, the smooth-but-somewhat inefficient Eric Ayala, and sometimes-starter/wing Hakim Hart. Qudus Wahab should be an impact transfer at center, Fatts Russell should be a backcourt starter, and Xavier Green and Ian Martinez should provide some depth that the Terps didn't have last year. I'm watching how ready freshman Julian Reese is to make an impact off the bench. If he can create problems for conference foes coming off the bench, and if anyone besides Scott can hit threes at an above-average clip, Maryland could definitely move up the rankings. 8. Rutgers - Rutgers had a wonderfully successful year, not only finally getting to the NCAA tournament but actually winnning a game (and were oh so close to making the Sweet 16). The surprise loss of Myles Johnson hurts, though, as do the transfers of Chase Young and Montez Mathis. Coach Pikiell has done a fine job so far, though, and does have Geo Baker, Ron Harper, and promising center Cliff Omoruyi all returning. Caleb McConnell had a surprising return late last season and should be a full-time starter, and either of the new transfers, Ralph Gonzales-Agee and Aundre Hyatt, could barge their way into the starting line-up. Young guards Jalen Miller and Jaden Jones look like they may be able to contribute off the bench, but I think the most interesting player here is Paul Mulcahy who seems to be able play four positions on the floor while irritating all five opposing players. I think they'll squeak back into the NCAA tourney, but it's going to take a lot to do. 9. Iowa - The Hawkeyes are projected to lvie on the bubble this year, and I tend to agree. There's some impressive firepower still on hand, but also so much was lost (Garza, Weiskamp, Frederick, Nunge) and the defense was *not great, Bob.* So there's a lot of work to be done. Joe Toussaint stepping into the starting line-up should improve the defense, as will more minutes for Keegan Murray - a possible breakout star. The McCaffrey brothers should also compete for starting spots, but super-senior Bohannon should be set for as many minutes as he can handle. Transfer Filip Rebraca should be a competent starter at center, but will still be a clear downgrade from Garza. Ahron Ulis and Tony Perkins did pretty decently in limited minutes off the bench, so I'll be keeping an eye on them to open some eyes this season. 10. Northwestern - To be honest, this is probably the most optimistic place you can put the Wildcats, but I don't think they'll be terrible this year. They nabbed a pretty decent recruiting class of freshmen wings, and Casey Simmons seems like a day 1 starter. Elyjah Williams is an underrated transfer who should shore up the interior for coach Collins, and Pete Nance, Ryan Young, and Robbie Beran were surprisingly competitive in the paint in conference play. Boo Buie and Chase Audige probably tried to do too much from the perimeter last season, but I think it's likely that a year of experience together and some new depth should help them achieve more efficiency. And Ty Berry looked like he was ready for more minutes last season. 11. Nebraska Coach Hoiberg finally has this team looking to move up the standings. Freshmen Bryce McGowens and Wilhelm Breidenbach should be starters all season long, point guard Trey McGowens returns, and some combination of Derrick Walker, Lat Mayen, and/or Kobe Webster are going to move from the starting line-up to the bench this season. There's some depth this season, with newcomers Alonzo Verge, Keisei Tominaga, Keon Edwards, and CJ Wilcher all expecting to contribute. I thought Eduardo Andre showed some significant promise in his first season, and I'll be keeping an eye on his development. Fred Hoiberg finally has a combination of roster continuity and incoming talent, so this may be the first time we can fairly evaluate his coaching acumen against Big Ten peers. 12. Penn State I think the Nittany Lions are going to be a little better than the cellar, but it's going to be hard to rise too far up the rankings. New coach Micah Shrewsberry got the underrated John Harrar to return, and Seth Lundy, Myles Dread and Sam Sessoms should provide some continuity for the newcomers. Lundy and Sessoms in particular are capable of going off, even if they generally do not. Transfers Jalen Pickeet and Jaheam Cornwall should step into starting roles, and forward Greg Lee should get significant minutes as well. The level of production that PSU can get out of the bench depth beyond this is a bit of a question mark, but there's enough here to keep PSU competitive in this transitional year. 13. Wisconsin - The Badgers seemed like a sure thing to be a contender for the Big Ten Tourney and in the national scene last season, and really fell flat as Greg Gard seemed to lose the team. A lot of folks think they'll be in contention for an at-large bid for the NCAA tourney, but I think if folks looked at this roster without names attached, they'd be more skeptical of UW's chances of success. Brad Davison returns, Tyler Wahl had some nice highlights, and Jonathan Davis showed some promise on the wing last season. But Gard is going to have lean heavily on Ben Carlson (who missed conference play last year) and transfer Ben Vogt to try to hold down the paint. And point guard is a pretty big question as well, as true freshman Chucky Hepburn will probably get a crack, Lorne Bowman could earn the nod to start, but it seems like transfer Jahcobi Neath is the odds-on starter and he, uh, didn't have the most impressive year at Wake Forest last season. A lot of questions here. 14. Minnesota - It's going to be a rough initial year for new coach Ben Johnson. The massive turnover of the roster and season-ending injuries to Isiah Ihnen and Parker Fox has nearly sabotaged the seaso before it even begin. That said, he landed a number of solid transfers, and I think Jamison Battle and Sean Sutherlin will earn some respect around the league. Payton Willis returns to Minnesota and will team with Elijah Stephens to run the backcourt. Eric Curry is going to be asked hold down the center spot, with likely help from transfer Charlie Daniels. Luke Loewe showed a multi-faceted game in the Colonial Athletic Association, and his game might translate well to the Big Ten. Outside of that, though, if Johnson gets much of anything out of the rest of this roster, it'll be something of a surprise. It'll be difficult to stay out of the cellar.