Whimsical Top 50 for 2009-2010

We've gotten to that point in the summer, where most of the post-NBA draft fallout has settled, a few of the weird off-season events have occurred (Iowa's implosion, Illinois' former walk-on Jeff Jordan walks-off the team), and we all start to get an idea of what the landscape of college basketball is going to look like next season. So, it's time for some ridiculous prognostications! In the last few years, I correctly picked UNC for '09, incorrectly picked Tennessee for '08 (but hey, Memphis 2nd), and correctly Florida for '07. So, without further ado, here's my why-the-heck not top 50 for 2009-2010:

1. Kansas
2. Tennessee
3. Villanova
4. Purdue
5. Duke
6. Washington
7. Kentucky
8. Michigan State
9. West Virginia
10. Butler
11. Texas
12. Clemson
13. California
14. Minnesota
15. Mississippi State
16. Wake Forest
17. Siena
18. Vanderbilt
19. Brigham Young
20. Dayton
21. South Carolina
22. Notre Dame
23. Tulsa
24. Nevada
25. Connecticut
26. Michigan
27. Northern Iowa
28. UCLA
29. Gonzaga
30. Memphis
31. Maryland
32. Louisville
33. Oklahoma State
34. Akron
35. North Carolina
36. Cincinnati
37. Creighton
38. Texas A&M
39. Utah State
40. Northwestern
41. Boston College
42. Seton Hall
43. Kansas State
44. Ohio State
45. Old Dominion
46. LaSalle
47. Oregon State
48. Western Kentucky
49. Hofstra
t-50. Illinois
t-50. Florida State

Big Ten Individual Player Projections for 2010

I've once again reviewed the 150 players slated to play basketball in the Big Ten conference season, and run down some basic rankings here.

This is mostly based on my effective per-possession production numbers, that I just released. There are a few exceptions, such as Robbie Hummel & Raymar Morgan, who I expect to be much better next year (and healthier), and actual Big Ten POY Kalin Lucas, who take more of a starring role next season. I also slightly downgraded UIUC's Demetri McCamey & Iowa's Jarryd Cole for having to switch positions to shore up their respective teams' weak points.

In the freshmen section (at the bottom of the rankings), I predicted a few starters and bolded their names. Derek Elston & Christian Watford of Indiana, Gerrick Sherman of MSU, DJ Richardson for Illinois, and Cully Payne for Iowa. This isn't to say that a number of the other freshmen won't get serious, even starting minutes, but I've always held that players like Royce White, et al,shouldn't be counted on to dominate their positions in their first year. But that's my bias, which is occasionally very wrong (my doubting of Greg Oden's first-year performance comes to mind).

Btw, blogger has decided my ratings shoot-off blog is spam. I've requested them to unlock it, but that's just weird.

Big Ten Conference Efficiency Ratings!

Get 'em while they're hot! Or ice-cold.
My apologies for the late release. I've been busy, and this is the first break I've had to run the numbers. I'm putting these new numbers to work for prognosticative purposes for next season, and I'll have another position-by-position ranking of the returning players out in the near future.

Here's the what and the why?

The quick summary of the top producers in conference play this year is here.

School-by-school rundowns can be found here.

And of course, the full report can be found here:

P.S. I know this is old, but check out John Gasaway's final conference check/efficiency margins to learn who had the best offense in the Big Ten this season. It surprised me.