Reactions to Preseason top 25s

It's been a decade+ since I left off posting on this site to write for Crimson Quarry. CQ's focus has shifted a little more to football (and rightfully so - the product on the field has improved and there aren't a lot of other great sites covering the topic). But I enjoyed throwing out preseason predictions and crunching stats, and although I'm far too busy with my family obligations, my professional career, etc etc., I still find my thoughts turning to sports when I sit waiting in lines, on playgrounds, and in other times. And in looking at the preseason top 25 college basketball lists, I definitely have some thoughts. Gonzaga and UCLA are obvious favorites for the champs. Kansas is always up there, and landing Remy Martin would make them a contender, I would think. But Bill Self will be shooting for just his second Final Four appearance over the last 10 years. Kentucky and Duke look a bit weaker than usual, and in fact, the whole ACC might be a little bit down as the Pac-12 and SEC seem to be stepping forward. The Big Ten is well represented in the preseason AP poll with five teams and two sitting right outside in the also-receiving votes category, but the highest rated are Michigan and Purude as 6th and 7th. Torvik likes Memphis, and from a talent perspective I can see why (a 20-win team last year with an enormous amount of talent, including bringing in a reclassified Emoni Bates). Interesting Torvik doesn't like UCLA that much, and picks Illinois as the top Big Ten team. But Penny has got to start delivering more wins. Kenpom likes Michigan more than most, and generally represents the Big Ten well overall. Surprisingy, Northwestern is just inside the top 50 for both Torvik and KenPom, which projects them as a bubble team, and honestly - I could see it. The Wildcats might indeed surprise soem conference observers, but honestly the Big Ten is going to be a tough place to just break even, and I have a hard time imagining that the conference gets even the nine bids that it got last year. This is mostly because the Big Ten had a disappointing postseason last year, but I think it's relevant that it wasn't the lower seeds that disappointed. Michigan State came very close to ending UCLA's Final Four run before it began before falling in OT, and Wisconsin, Rutgers, and Maryland all outplayed their seeds. The consensus in preseason picks is that the Hoosiers project around 7th in the Big Ten standings, which should put them safely in the NCAA tourney - although not seeded to get very far. I'm slightly more optimistic (TJD is a likely B1G POY, I expect Parker Stewart and Xavier Johnson to be day one starters, Michael Durr and Tamar Bates could definitely crack the starting five, and Miller Kopp is a top ten returning scorer in the B1G), but with the mix of new coaches, new talent, and returning talent... a little caution is probably warranted. The one worry I have is that the light preconference schedule might hurt the perception of the Hoosiers' quality as only a few Hoosier foes will give us any kind of early benchmark. Notre Dame is projected to be ever-so-slightly ahead of the Hoosiers in Torvik (29) and Kenpom (27), while Syracuse looks more like a bubble team (41, 64). St. John's projects more outside of the bubble (51, 78) and Marshall maybe makes the CBI or CIT if they don't win their conference tourney (111, 126). Notre Dame, Syracuse, and St. John's all are near the bottom of the also receiving votes category in the AP poll. However, there will be lots and lots of opportunities for Q1 and Q2 wins in conference play. I like the Hoosiers for 10-1 non-conference, more than 20 wins overall, and finishing above .500 in conference play (12-8?). However, the toughest part of the schedule appears to be all on the backstretch, so it might seem like the Hoosiers are declining at the end of the season.