College Basketball Predictions - Big Ten edition

Just throwing out my picks for the Big Ten Race 1. Purdue - I thought the Boilers were a little lucky last year (MSU just gift-wrapped them a road win). But outside of the home loss to Michigan, there wasn't really a game that they weren't positioned to win during their 11-3 run to finish conference play. They return all of their major pieces and add two key freshmen. There are high hopes for Jaden Ivey following his strong finish and summer FIBA play (I have doubts about him turning into Ayo, at least for this season), but specifically the two-man pivot of Williams and Edey seems nearly unsolvable for conference foes. This is honestly Matt Painter's best chance to get to the Final Four... maybe ever? 2. Michigan - Juwan Howard has brought in a stellar recruiting class, Hunter Dickinson and Eli Brooks are as good as anyone in the conference at their positions, and transfer Devante Jones should pick up where Mike Smith left off at point. Whether the Wolverines are able to grab a conference crown and get to the Final Four will depend on how the freshmen adapt to the learning curve (specifically wings Houstan and Bufkin) and how good of a fit Jones turns out to be as a facilitator of the offense. 3. Ohio State - Strangely, I think the Buckeyes are being a little underrated this year - and this might have something to do with their first-game flameout in the NCAA tourney last Spring. It's easy enough for me to bracket that loss as having something to due with Kyle Young's injury (he returns), but breakout star Duane Washington Jr. has moved on to the NBA. That said, outside of point CJ Walker, no other key contributors moved on, and Holtmann brought in an impressive array of transfers and freshmen. EJ Liddell should have a more talented team surrounding him, with Jamari Wheeler stepping in at point and true freshman wing Malachi Branham getting heavy minutes. Even transfers Joey Brunk and Cedric Russell may find the rotation tough to crack. I'm watching for Justice Sueing to elevate his game and Jimmy Sotos to provide a steady backcourt presence off the bench. 4. Illinois - Obviously, getting Kofi Cockburn back for another year was huge. Exploiting the Covid exception to keep return super-seniors Damonte Williams and Trent Frazier was also pretty key. There's a few decent freshmen arriving, and it'll be interesting to see redshirted transfer Austin Hutcherson can carve out a space for himself in the rotation like Jacob Grandison did last year. However, whether the Illini are a Final Four contender or just a solid NCAA tournement team will fall totally on Andre Curbelo - both the best and the most promising returning point guard in the conference. I would say if you don't enjoy watching Curbelo, then you don't like basketball - but I can see how his turnovers might frustrate some folks. 5. Michigan State - The Spartans almost had their worst year in perhaps all of Tom Izzo's tenure as head coach. They notched a lot of big wins down the stretch, though, and had eventual Final Four team UCLA on the ropes before finally fading in overtime in the NCAA tournament. Although some great new pieces join MSU this season (Max Christie on the wing is probably the biggest impact guy), but the most important will be transfer Tyson Walker and freshman Jaden Akins who will be taking over point guard duties from the departed Rocket Watts and Foster Loyer. The other thing to watch will be what Izzo does with the center position, as he had the highly-effective Marcus Bingham on a leash. Mady Sissoko also looked promisingin his, uh, 5 minutes/game last year. If those core positions are stabilized, MSU could jump up into conference title contention. 6. Indiana - I'm slightly more optimistic than most on the Hoosiers this year. I think IU has a good shot at top 5 in the conference and winning a game in the NCAA tourney, and has the talent on hand to make some real noise this year. The Hoosiers seemed like a solid NCAA team until the late-season slide, which seemed largely due to the frustrating final spiral of the Archie Miller regime - which I think is tempering expectations for this season (granted, that closing stretch was an unqualified disaster). Coach Woodson getting Trayce Jackson-Davis to return was pretty huge, as there may not be a better player in the conference. Strangely, interior play was not solid for the Hoosiers last season, but that should be shored up with the return of Race Thompson and transfer Michael Durr. Woodson even got help on the perimeter with shooter Miller Kopp, point Xavier Johnson, and freshman wing Tamar Bates. Transfer Parker Stewart also stuck around and should claim a starting spot. This roster should have some resilience, and if Coach Woodson is as good on in-game management as advertised, Hoosier fans can start getting excited. 7. Maryland - The Terrapins are expected to be a national player this season with their mix of returnees and newcomers, but I am a little skeptical. There's only three returnees from last year's rotation - the overachieving Donta Scott, the smooth-but-somewhat inefficient Eric Ayala, and sometimes-starter/wing Hakim Hart. Qudus Wahab should be an impact transfer at center, Fatts Russell should be a backcourt starter, and Xavier Green and Ian Martinez should provide some depth that the Terps didn't have last year. I'm watching how ready freshman Julian Reese is to make an impact off the bench. If he can create problems for conference foes coming off the bench, and if anyone besides Scott can hit threes at an above-average clip, Maryland could definitely move up the rankings. 8. Rutgers - Rutgers had a wonderfully successful year, not only finally getting to the NCAA tournament but actually winnning a game (and were oh so close to making the Sweet 16). The surprise loss of Myles Johnson hurts, though, as do the transfers of Chase Young and Montez Mathis. Coach Pikiell has done a fine job so far, though, and does have Geo Baker, Ron Harper, and promising center Cliff Omoruyi all returning. Caleb McConnell had a surprising return late last season and should be a full-time starter, and either of the new transfers, Ralph Gonzales-Agee and Aundre Hyatt, could barge their way into the starting line-up. Young guards Jalen Miller and Jaden Jones look like they may be able to contribute off the bench, but I think the most interesting player here is Paul Mulcahy who seems to be able play four positions on the floor while irritating all five opposing players. I think they'll squeak back into the NCAA tourney, but it's going to take a lot to do. 9. Iowa - The Hawkeyes are projected to lvie on the bubble this year, and I tend to agree. There's some impressive firepower still on hand, but also so much was lost (Garza, Weiskamp, Frederick, Nunge) and the defense was *not great, Bob.* So there's a lot of work to be done. Joe Toussaint stepping into the starting line-up should improve the defense, as will more minutes for Keegan Murray - a possible breakout star. The McCaffrey brothers should also compete for starting spots, but super-senior Bohannon should be set for as many minutes as he can handle. Transfer Filip Rebraca should be a competent starter at center, but will still be a clear downgrade from Garza. Ahron Ulis and Tony Perkins did pretty decently in limited minutes off the bench, so I'll be keeping an eye on them to open some eyes this season. 10. Northwestern - To be honest, this is probably the most optimistic place you can put the Wildcats, but I don't think they'll be terrible this year. They nabbed a pretty decent recruiting class of freshmen wings, and Casey Simmons seems like a day 1 starter. Elyjah Williams is an underrated transfer who should shore up the interior for coach Collins, and Pete Nance, Ryan Young, and Robbie Beran were surprisingly competitive in the paint in conference play. Boo Buie and Chase Audige probably tried to do too much from the perimeter last season, but I think it's likely that a year of experience together and some new depth should help them achieve more efficiency. And Ty Berry looked like he was ready for more minutes last season. 11. Nebraska Coach Hoiberg finally has this team looking to move up the standings. Freshmen Bryce McGowens and Wilhelm Breidenbach should be starters all season long, point guard Trey McGowens returns, and some combination of Derrick Walker, Lat Mayen, and/or Kobe Webster are going to move from the starting line-up to the bench this season. There's some depth this season, with newcomers Alonzo Verge, Keisei Tominaga, Keon Edwards, and CJ Wilcher all expecting to contribute. I thought Eduardo Andre showed some significant promise in his first season, and I'll be keeping an eye on his development. Fred Hoiberg finally has a combination of roster continuity and incoming talent, so this may be the first time we can fairly evaluate his coaching acumen against Big Ten peers. 12. Penn State I think the Nittany Lions are going to be a little better than the cellar, but it's going to be hard to rise too far up the rankings. New coach Micah Shrewsberry got the underrated John Harrar to return, and Seth Lundy, Myles Dread and Sam Sessoms should provide some continuity for the newcomers. Lundy and Sessoms in particular are capable of going off, even if they generally do not. Transfers Jalen Pickeet and Jaheam Cornwall should step into starting roles, and forward Greg Lee should get significant minutes as well. The level of production that PSU can get out of the bench depth beyond this is a bit of a question mark, but there's enough here to keep PSU competitive in this transitional year. 13. Wisconsin - The Badgers seemed like a sure thing to be a contender for the Big Ten Tourney and in the national scene last season, and really fell flat as Greg Gard seemed to lose the team. A lot of folks think they'll be in contention for an at-large bid for the NCAA tourney, but I think if folks looked at this roster without names attached, they'd be more skeptical of UW's chances of success. Brad Davison returns, Tyler Wahl had some nice highlights, and Jonathan Davis showed some promise on the wing last season. But Gard is going to have lean heavily on Ben Carlson (who missed conference play last year) and transfer Ben Vogt to try to hold down the paint. And point guard is a pretty big question as well, as true freshman Chucky Hepburn will probably get a crack, Lorne Bowman could earn the nod to start, but it seems like transfer Jahcobi Neath is the odds-on starter and he, uh, didn't have the most impressive year at Wake Forest last season. A lot of questions here. 14. Minnesota - It's going to be a rough initial year for new coach Ben Johnson. The massive turnover of the roster and season-ending injuries to Isiah Ihnen and Parker Fox has nearly sabotaged the seaso before it even begin. That said, he landed a number of solid transfers, and I think Jamison Battle and Sean Sutherlin will earn some respect around the league. Payton Willis returns to Minnesota and will team with Elijah Stephens to run the backcourt. Eric Curry is going to be asked hold down the center spot, with likely help from transfer Charlie Daniels. Luke Loewe showed a multi-faceted game in the Colonial Athletic Association, and his game might translate well to the Big Ten. Outside of that, though, if Johnson gets much of anything out of the rest of this roster, it'll be something of a surprise. It'll be difficult to stay out of the cellar.

Reactions to Preseason top 25s

It's been a decade+ since I left off posting on this site to write for Crimson Quarry. CQ's focus has shifted a little more to football (and rightfully so - the product on the field has improved and there aren't a lot of other great sites covering the topic). But I enjoyed throwing out preseason predictions and crunching stats, and although I'm far too busy with my family obligations, my professional career, etc etc., I still find my thoughts turning to sports when I sit waiting in lines, on playgrounds, and in other times. And in looking at the preseason top 25 college basketball lists, I definitely have some thoughts. Gonzaga and UCLA are obvious favorites for the champs. Kansas is always up there, and landing Remy Martin would make them a contender, I would think. But Bill Self will be shooting for just his second Final Four appearance over the last 10 years. Kentucky and Duke look a bit weaker than usual, and in fact, the whole ACC might be a little bit down as the Pac-12 and SEC seem to be stepping forward. The Big Ten is well represented in the preseason AP poll with five teams and two sitting right outside in the also-receiving votes category, but the highest rated are Michigan and Purude as 6th and 7th. Torvik likes Memphis, and from a talent perspective I can see why (a 20-win team last year with an enormous amount of talent, including bringing in a reclassified Emoni Bates). Interesting Torvik doesn't like UCLA that much, and picks Illinois as the top Big Ten team. But Penny has got to start delivering more wins. Kenpom likes Michigan more than most, and generally represents the Big Ten well overall. Surprisingy, Northwestern is just inside the top 50 for both Torvik and KenPom, which projects them as a bubble team, and honestly - I could see it. The Wildcats might indeed surprise soem conference observers, but honestly the Big Ten is going to be a tough place to just break even, and I have a hard time imagining that the conference gets even the nine bids that it got last year. This is mostly because the Big Ten had a disappointing postseason last year, but I think it's relevant that it wasn't the lower seeds that disappointed. Michigan State came very close to ending UCLA's Final Four run before it began before falling in OT, and Wisconsin, Rutgers, and Maryland all outplayed their seeds. The consensus in preseason picks is that the Hoosiers project around 7th in the Big Ten standings, which should put them safely in the NCAA tourney - although not seeded to get very far. I'm slightly more optimistic (TJD is a likely B1G POY, I expect Parker Stewart and Xavier Johnson to be day one starters, Michael Durr and Tamar Bates could definitely crack the starting five, and Miller Kopp is a top ten returning scorer in the B1G), but with the mix of new coaches, new talent, and returning talent... a little caution is probably warranted. The one worry I have is that the light preconference schedule might hurt the perception of the Hoosiers' quality as only a few Hoosier foes will give us any kind of early benchmark. Notre Dame is projected to be ever-so-slightly ahead of the Hoosiers in Torvik (29) and Kenpom (27), while Syracuse looks more like a bubble team (41, 64). St. John's projects more outside of the bubble (51, 78) and Marshall maybe makes the CBI or CIT if they don't win their conference tourney (111, 126). Notre Dame, Syracuse, and St. John's all are near the bottom of the also receiving votes category in the AP poll. However, there will be lots and lots of opportunities for Q1 and Q2 wins in conference play. I like the Hoosiers for 10-1 non-conference, more than 20 wins overall, and finishing above .500 in conference play (12-8?). However, the toughest part of the schedule appears to be all on the backstretch, so it might seem like the Hoosiers are declining at the end of the season.

The Crimson Quarry rocks! (Har!)

I won't be exactly discontinuing this blog, but the laudable John M. over at The Crimson Quarry has asked me to pitch in with the occasional post. I've been a fan of The Crimson Quarry since it launched, and my first headlines post is up over there. I'll still keep this blog open for my most wonkiest or vehement posts, but I will be directing the greater part of my blogging energy over there.

Arguments about Stuff and Nonsense

Speaking of nonsense, is the #1-rated (pro-style)QB in the nation coming to Indiana? I hope a solid string of O-Line recruits is also in the offing. Still, that's some great nonsense!

Another less-great nonsense thing I've seen floating around lately is that the US Women "choked" away the World Cup. I'm not sure that fits with my view of "choke" so much as a missed opportunity. Given the US WWC team barely got into the tourney at all, barely got past the first round, and never had more than a one-goal lead on the Japanese, it's hard to justify the term "choke" with this case. The US & the Japanese got hot at the right times, and while the US played better, the PKs just fell the other way. I think maybe the US team let expectations be set rather high when it comes to PKs due to their ice-veined finishes against Brazil. From a lifetime of watching (and occasionally playing) soccer, let me tell you that nothing other than PKs is a clearer distillation in sports of the metaphor "sometimes you eat th' b'ar, sometimes the b'ar eats you."

Anyway, at some point I hope to put together an Indiana men's soccer preview. I need motivation, tho, as family, summer reading, and job searches have kept me pretty busy.

Some college basketball stuff is happening, too. Bright young light Drew Cannon over Basketball Prospectus posted an interesting top 100 NCAA players list, and then was part of a wrap-up discussion with regulars Pelton & Gasaway and newbie Todd Dybas. This is on the heels of his "what to expect from freshmen" article from which I've been doing some number-crunching of my own - post upcoming! What I want to nitpick is his picks for all-conference, especially the Big Ten.

First team: Draymond Green, Robbie Hummel, Jared Sullinger, Jordan Taylor, Deshaun Thomas
Second: William Buford, Tim Hardaway, Trevor Mbakwe, John Shurna, Christian Watford
Third: Melsahn Basabe, Aaron Craft, Jordan Morgan, Brandon Paul, Brandon Wood

I think Green, Hummel, Sullinger, and Taylor are all smart picks. DeShaun Thomas I shake my head at a little bit - not that he doesn't have potential, but next season the ball goes first into Sullinger's hands in the paint. Thomas will get PT 'cause he can shoot the three, but he had a hard time carving out minutes last season when there wasn't another true 4 on the team, and now he'll have to compete with McDonald's All-American Amir Williams and talented transfer Evan Ravenel for minutes. I just think Thomas won't be featured as much as, say, William Buford, who I think should be on the first team.

The second team I have no problem with except for Indiana's own Christian Watford. Watford should benefit from Cody Zeller's presence and from hopefully being healthy, but I don't foresee his two-point shooting percentage or his block, steal, or offensive rebound rates rising enough to boost him to the top of the league. He should be a solid scorer for the Hoosiers next season, but top-ten? I'm dubious. I'd boost Basabe and probably the unmentioned Lewis Jackson onto the second team before Watford.

For the Third team I won't debate Brandon Wood (defensible, but wouldn't be my pick) but I will debate the inclusion of Jordan Morgan and Brandon Paul. I cannot see including Jordan Morgan over Ralph Sampson, Luka Mirkovic, and what would be my pick- Delvon Roe. Furthermore, Morgan can obviously rebound, but I'm pretty interested to see what kind of shooting numbers he can post without Morris breaking down the defense to feed him a diet of open lay-ups. And of starting centers, only the graduated Jarryd Cole & Andrew Jones had lower shot-block percentages than Morgan. Brandon Paul could be worthy of all-conference selection, I suppose, but it just seems unlikely. He's always been a gunner, and next season I expect his assists to go up, sure, but I also expect his turnovers to rise and his shooting percentage to fall. I would suspect a sophomore like Josh Gasser or true points like Tim Frazier or Bryce Cartwright would do better than Paul both statistically and in efficiency terms - even if their teams are less talented overall. And for that matter, Verdell Jones did better in my per-possession efficiency ranking than Paul last season, despite playing the bailout role and struggling through injuries.

B1G basketball 2011 final efficiency stats

I know, they're crazy late. Apologies, but I still think it might be interesting to consider the player performances now that the sturm und drang of the conference season has settled.

Essentially, there was a pretty clear top three with Jordan Taylor, Draymond Green, and JaJuan Johnson, with probably Jordan Taylor with the slightest of edges over the other two. Jared Sullinger's play declined in the second of the season, but he still finished a very solid fourth ahead of Trevor Mbakwe, Jeff Brooks, and Melsahn Basabe. Anyway, the final stats and the school-by-school notes are now available.

In short, the Big Ten will get a lot of top players back next season, but a lot of the 2nd and 3rd best players have moved on. It's hard to envision that the conference will be quite as tough as it has been the couple years, but it won't be too down either.

I'll have number crunching on Nebraska up before too long, to see how the Huskers' 2011 conference season compares to the rest of the returning B1G players.

The Bright side of the US WWC

First of all, hats off to the Japanese- an amazing tournament for them even as they came in as a sleeper pick, they showed tremendous ability in taking down favorites and hosts Germany, and outright beating down the third-place Swedes (who were the only team to outright beat the US), and tying the US twice to send it to PKs. Great heart, great ability, and surely a great salve for the nation recovering from tragedy. Btw, was anyone else touched that before each and every game they displayed that banner thanking the friends around the world for their support? Nicely done, there.

And for the US... yes, the penalty kick result was disappointing, and the fact that the US was minutes away from lifting the trophy (twice!) has to be heartbreaking for the members of the Women's team. It's as if all of the karma that USA spent in the Brazil game (late comeback won on PKs despite being outplayed) and against France (generally being out-passed and out-shot yet just not quite finishing - the sound of the ball hitting the pipes was less pleasing this time around) came back around against the Japanese. You then throw in the fact that one of the US' top offensive threats (Lauren Cheney) who had scored or assisted in four of the previous five games was almost instantly hobbled and eventually had to come off. And no discredit to the Japanese, but it's hard to look at the game or break down the stats and not think that the US was the better team that should have won. However, I would suggest that this was a tremendous success for both Women's Soccer and the US team in general. I won't say much about the Women's Soccer aspect (Hirshey has that covered), but it was a great tournament and a great final showed that soccer can about drama and scoring goals - this was certainly a far more exhilarating tournament than the 1999 World Cup where the US almost ran out of gas. After Michelle Akers went out in 1999, it was pretty clear that the Chinese were every bit as good and possibly better than the US. That wasn't the case here with the US after the injured Cheney was subbed out at halftime.

And the US doesn't quit, after dominating the first 30 minutes, and then reasserting itself after the loss of Cheney, it could've folded when Japan first tied it up. The US looked the better team through the OT, and still, it continued to look like it could pull off an outright win with late chances from Wambach and when Morgan was taken down late on her way to what seemed to be a winning goal, it was the 121st minute? The US team is making a name for itself with its level of endurance. Also, even though Wambach may have been the only player with the presence of mind to congratulate the victors, the US generally went out with class - the Japanese may have held them off for the PKs, but the US made them get issued first ever Women's World Cup red card prevent a winning goal - smart, but hardly laudable.

And finally, let's not forget that the US came in rather shakily - having to beat Italy in a playoff to assure its place in the WWC. And then, they looked like they might be heading for disappointment when they couldn't quite tie Sweden and faced Brazil in the first round. The US' thrilling success against Brazil and France made the nation sit up and notice the WWC again, and playing like the best team in the final of the WWC has re-established the Americans' international reputation as the heavyweight in Women's Soccer again. And furthermore, although we were already well aware of Wambach and Solo's dominance at their positions (I would submit them for all-time all-world), it was a coming-out party for Alex Morgan, who came into the Cup with a mere 16 caps, and just got better as the games went on. The US was familiarized with both domestic and international stars, which is great for the struggling Women's Professional League. Although I think Morgan (and perhaps Rapinoe) will be the US's next breakthrough marketing star, for the team it's good that the potent Lauren Cheney has also come into her own as a reliable creator, and best of all...

the Olympics await next summer!

Quick July Flame links

Since the Women's World Cup game on Sunday is the big to-do, if you want to listen to a couple of analysts with some humorous insights about the semi-final games, here's ESPN's Off the Ball podcast

Drew Cannon over at Basketball Prospectus talks about predicting freshmen performance. There's nothing shocking here, but it's a nice review to back up the truisms like "bigs develop more slowly" or "too much is expected of incoming freshmen."

In Big Ten basketball news, promising incoming Junior College player and interesting storyline Anthony Hubbard has left Iowa due to "homesickness." Iowa still has four starters coming back as well as incoming frosh Josh Oglesby & Gabe Olaseni who should contribute off the bench, and Aaron White might be a sleeper, but now the Hawkeyes are really going to need improvement out of Devyn Marble if they hope to get to the postseason. And uh, also some combination of Archie and Brommer to hold down the center-spot, which may be a much taller order.