Fears realized

Indiana Soccer was unable to generate multiple goals in its second-round match-up with Bradley, tied 1-1 in regulation, and was then eliminated on PKs, 5-4. This Hoosier Soccer club just reminds me so much of the 1993 squad, which was also solid defensively and had future Players of the Year Brian Maisonneuve and Todd Yeagley, but just couldn't seem to put the ball in the back of the net. They lost both the Big Ten championship game and the first game they played in the NCAA tourney (against Wisconsin I believe). On the upside, the 1994 Hoosiers went all the way to Championship game before narrowly falling to Virginia, 1-0. Hopefully, next year's soccer players will be playing in the Championship game as well. They'll lose a couple of starting defenders in Charley Traylor and Greg Stevning, as well as their back-up goalkeeper Chris Munroe, but otherwise these Hoosiers return intact. These Hoosiers have the depth to plug those gaps. The one guy to watch whether he goes pro early or not is back Ofori Sarkodie. I don't think he will, but if he does, then the Hoosiers' defense will be significantly weakened.

ACC wins the "challenge" again.
Granted, my hopes weren't the highest for great results this season, but I still am waiting to see the Big Ten win one of these things. On the upside, my predictions ran pretty decently, posting a final score 9 correct and only 2 wrong. On the downside, both of my wrong predictions were about the Big Ten winning, as Iowa and Michigan both looked weaker than even I thought they'd be.

Indiana goes to scary Southern Illinois on Saturday night. They're coming off a bad loss to Southern Cal., and while they aren't as big as Georgia Tech, they're every bit as quick and certainly seem tougher. Also, SIU is good at getting steals and shutting down foes' 3-pt. shooting, so we need Bassett, Gordon, and Ellis to control the ball without coughing it up. Gordon turned it over 8 times against GT, and I'll bet he's been hearing about that in practice.
If I were coach Sampson, I'd run a couple of plays designed to get Lance Stemler open looks early to boost his confidence, and then I'd pound the ball into DJ in the first half. To open the second half I'd look to get Jamarcus Ellis involved right away, 'cause once he scores he seems to challenge his opponent a lot, and that's only to the good for IU. I'd probably give Mike White a lot of time in this one, too, as he's got a good combo of size and speed to match up with SIU forwards.

Thanksgiving weekend: Thoughts and Previews

IU Men's Basketball:
The Hoosiers face Illinois State tonight, and while the Hoosiers are the more talented team, they can't overlook the Redbirds. ISU is a club on the way up, and handled UNC-Wilmington easily enough on their homecourt, and are playing close to home. They probably won't crack the top 4 in the MVC, but they've got an outside shot at qualifying for the NIT. Illinois State ranks 2nd right now in Basketball State's own rankings, and #34 in the early RPI. That said, computer rankings don't mean very much until mid-December, at least. But this should be a much better test of the Men's team.
Speaking of which, looking over the schedule, either Xavier or Kent State is probably going to supply the Hoosiers with their third-toughest non-conference game. At Southern Illinois (12/1) is nearly a guaranteed loss, while hosting Connecticut (1/26) should be the next toughest (non-Big 10) team we'll play. Kentucky and Georgia Tech are not the teams they were last season, even if they do manage to claw their way into the Big Dance. All that is just saying, Indiana's got a pretty easy schedule this year, but Xavier and Kent State are both capable of handing the Hoosiers their first loss.

IU Soccer
You can watch the men & women's games this weekend online! That is, if you're like me & several hundred miles from Bill Armstrong stadium. Were I in B-ton this weekend, I'd be freezing my posterior off this Sunday, sitting in the stands to support the IU Women's Soccer team remarkable NCAA run. They're just two wins away from a Final Four appearance, and hosting Duke at 2pm. Support 'em if you are around!

IU women's basketball
The Hoosiers suffered their first loss, 55-53 to Wake Forest. This despite 9 steals by IU guard Kim Roberson. Last season's leading scorer (Nikki Smith) shot 0-7, tho. Neither side shot very well, but it's always hard to look at a two-point game and then look at a 56% shooting line (9-16) on free-throws. The women's team has a decent core of veterans, but doesn't seem very tall (only one rotation player taller than 6'0") and despite a 3-1 record, doesn't seem to shoot very well (40% Fgs, 28% 3pt.FGs, 63% FTs). If they hope to improve on last season's 19-14 record and make a run for the NCAA tourney, they need to get the team's shooting fixed.

Elsewhere in Big Ten & College Basketball

I've watched a bit of Penn State's playing now, and I'm not sure what Ed DeChellis can do. Certainly getting talented newcomers Stanley Pringle and Talor Battle to run the offense more and shoot less (combined 5-24 FGs in loss to South Carolina) would be the first priority, and get the team to cut on turnovers (20 in same loss). But Penn State seems more impressive than last year's club, looking much more able to rebound and defend the perimeter. But they still can't seem to beat clubs they should be beating. South Carolina might have a shot at the NIT, but they also seem fairly likely to finish 11th or 12th in the SEC. Rider should win the MAAC, but should be 15th seed, at best. If the Nittany Lions can't finish South Carolina or Rider on a Neutral court, how are they going to win any road games in the Big Ten? Maybe it's just early season struggles, and DeChellis will find a way to get Battle & Pringle playing while creating shots for the shooters (Morrissey, Walker, and Claxton) instead of the themselves. Also, maybe some can give Brandon Hassell a tip about post defense, 'cause I'm not sure he knows what it is.

I've been able to watch a bit of college ball, and I was totally unsurprised by Western Michigan's win over Davidson, Rider beating PSU and giving NCSU a scare, Western Kentucky's nearly upsetting Gonzaga, Central Florida's strong challenge of Villanova, and George Mason's beating of Kansas State. All of these "underdog" teams I projected in the NCAA tourney, and Central Florida I predicted would be in the NIT (along with Villanova) at season's end. Today, watch if George Mason doesn't take down Villanova in another "upset."

Men's Hoops!

So, IU wins by 24, didn't shoot as well on threes ("only" 43% for the game) and Gordon gets big highlight reels. As for my other predictions, the surprisingly close halftime score? Not so much. Gordon is so good, that he's just bailing IU out as he can score pretty much whenever he wants. The other teams get that look that JJ Redick's foes used to get in their eyes where all of their fear and attention is concentrated on that one scorer, and then Indiana is able to move the ball around for DJ or DeAndre to get easy twos or Bassett and Crawford get easy threes.

Indiana's points per possession remained basically the same, although the defense continues to improve.
1.27 ppp/0.86 oppp= +0.41

Again, the competition is less than stellar, so this weekend's games with Illinois State (who beat UNC-W by 17) and then Kent State or Xavier (both should be NCAA tourney teams) should make the Hoosiers have to react a little more strategically than just waiting for Eric Gordon to be awesome.

I've signed up for Basketball State, which isn't going to be really cool until some solid data comes in, but it is a pretty amazing site. But what else would you expect from Kyle Whelliston? I'm hoping that the $20 subscription proves worth it so I can stop all of my "home-cooking" of stats.

I watched Michigan State-UCLA, and it was pretty much a display of two different teams in two different halves for the Spartans. I've watched UCLA in a couple of games now, and they are a legit #1 and Kevin Love is a legit lottery pick next spring. But they were playing without Darren Collison, and they were already weak in the backcourt after Michael Roll's injury. MSU definitely should've beat them, if they were a legit Final Four team. But I think they still could be, if Izzo's freshmen improve a little.

When the freshmen were confident and loose, they made MSU's offense look normal. You spread the floor with a shooter, allow your big men to screen and hit the glass, and if the shot clock's low, you give the ball to a wing and allow him to penetrate. MSU's frosh guards were able to do that as long as UCLA was behind. When UCLA made a strong push in the second half, MSU got nervous and went back to old habits of running Nietzel into the ground. Drew had to launch long threes with men in his face, or they had to wait for UCLA to slip up defensively so they could get a backdoor play. And UCLA isn't going to let that keep happening. MSU's best clutch offense seemed to be springing Drew Naymick for baseline jumpers. Don't get me wrong, Naymick's a good player with a nice jumper, but that's not an offense that's going to make defenses scared or react. Getting Durrell Summers or Chris Allen slashing to the bucket might.

Also watched a bit of Duke taking apart Illinois. The Illini look like they don't have any idea what they want to do on offense. It's hard to believe that Bruce Weber coached one of the most dynamic offenses ever just a few years ago. Duke took away Shaun Pruitt, and Alexander & Meachem couldn't hit threes, and that was it. Duke is not a top-ten team, but Illinois made them look pretty good. The one bright spot was that Brian Randle looked pretty good with his back to the basket

Elsewhere in the Big Ten, Northwestern finally got win, but it was over D-II Benedictine (it's gonna be a rough year in Evanston). Purdue barely squeaked by Lipscomb in West Lafayette. Perhaps projecting PU in the NIT was generous. Iowa moved to 4-0 with a win over Maryland-Eastern Shore. And while the Hawkeyes have done well to win without Tony Freeman (out with an injury), the competition's been pretty weak. The upcoming game at Bradley should provide a little clarity on their quality. Minnesota picked up probably the win of the night, beating Iowa State on the road. Of the new coaches, Tubby Smith has the best fit in personnel to succeed, I think.

C'mon coach!

Evidently Sampson called UNC-Wilmington a "really good team."

I hope this is just positioning so that the players don't take a night off. Yeah, the Seahawks return 4 starters, and got a season-opening win against Charleston, but this is not a good team. Coming off a 7-22 season, my projection for the Seahwaks was mediocre at best (I have a really hard time seeing them finish higher than 7th in the CAA), and I stand by it. Todd Hendley (last seen by IU fans in Assembly Hall adding insult to injury in Wake Forest's 100-67 blowout of the hosting Hoosiers) has nice range for a 6-9 forward, and center Vladimir Kuljanin is a beast on the boards, but they had a bad defense last season and worse offense, and most RPI rankings had them in the 200's. I bet that their offense does improve a little this year, but I have a hard time seeing the interior defense improving much, and a bad turnover situation will keep them from moving too far up the rankings. This team is not anywhere in the same stratum as IU. Against similar competition, IU has a + 0.46 differential in points per possession while UNC-W has a -0.018. The Hoosiers should win by 20.

What I see happening tonight is that the threes probably don't fall as easily for IU (the Seahawks were actually okay at perimeter defense last season) leading to a reasonably close half-time score. But Sampson will use this opportunity to utilize his bigs, and DJ White and DeAndre Thomas will punish UNC-W in the paint. Jamarcus Ellis and Eric Gordon probably also take it to the hoop, and don't be surprised to see Lance Stemler and/or Brandon McGee get some good PT for a defensive match-up with Hendley.

Looks like the NCAA tournament Men's Soccer selection committee uses the RPI pretty closely, as the Hoosiers grabbed a #1 seed despite losing the conference championship. Usually that spells a #2, even for elite teams, and I'm not sure IU soccer is elite this year. Certainly the defense is, but the pub I've seen lately calling the offense "diverse" is just a really generous way of saying that the Hoosiers don't have a proven goal scorer. Kevin Noschang probably has the most talent and ability to get free, but doesn't seem to have a consistency in finishing. Brad Ring has a Scott Merritt-like nose for scrapping and making things happen around the goal, but he'd have a lot more assists if someone had the booming foot of Harry Weiss or the smooth skill of Aleksey Korol. In any case, Indiana needs to ride its defense and this bracket windfall to the Final Four.

In the tourney, a possible rematch with Ohio State looms, but I bet UCSB is the team IU will face in the Elite 8. The team I'm most worried about in all of this is IU. They need someone on the team to get on a hot-scoring streak, 'cause its hard to see anyone getting more than one goal on them in regulation, but its not hard to see the Hoosiers coming up empty in front of opponents' goals.

One the other side of the bracket, I'm hoping to see a Northwestern-UIC match-up in the second round, and not just because I've been a student at both. My first soccer coach, John Trask, got the Flames to the postseason, and Northwestern is part of what I'm pretty sure is a Big Ten conference record of 4 NCAA tourney teams (IU, NU, OSU, and Michigan State).