Gonzaga better than IU:
When teams don't hit their threes or all their frees, we don't look so terrible. This was something of a moral victory, as IU hung around close enough to engage the press-and-foul strategy in a not-entirely-futile-hope at the end of the game. They've got a little to learn there, too, though. However, a bit of concern: IU's turnovers are getting worse, or at least not getting better.
This team looks capable of rebounding okay, and hitting some threes to keep us in games, but until we trim our turnovers down, it'll be hard to be competitive. Btw, don't expect Jeremiah Rivers to be the answer at point next year. Going over his KenPom profile from his two years at Georgetown, he had the fewest assists and the highest turnover rate both years. He might serve as a stopper, but that's it. Now comes what should be a revealing stretch of non-conference play: TCU at home and Kentucky on the road. 1-1 would be a pretty good outcome, and while Kentucky's not all that good this year, but I'd be surprised if we were in it at the end of that road game.

*Big Ten Basketball to get 5+ Bids?
I had penciled in the conference for 4 bids, barely, but that looks to be changing with middle of the conference looking quite good now.
Big surprise: Michigan takes down Duke, who clearly seemed the better team in an earlier match. granted it was at home, and it points out that Duke's deficiencies are probably the same ones they had last season, but still, a very big win. And Ohio State beat Notre Dame on a neutral floor, and having that plus the Miami-Fla. road win in their pockets looks pretty good on their at-large resume. These two plus Michigan State, Purdue, and Wisconsin would seem to put the conference in good standing for at least five bids. It's early, and Michigan's inconsistency does put a question mark on their ability to do well enough in the conference to earn that bid. But they're now in the driver's seat. Also, don't look now, but Minnesota (8-0), Illinois (7-1) & Northwestern (6-1) are all doing quite well. Yes, yes, I know it's Northwestern, but NU probably has the best "quality win" of the three so far when they terrorized Florida State in the second half of the ACC-Big 10 challenge game, and FSU just went on to beat Florida this last weekend. The Wildcat's only blemish was a narrow loss to Butler who is currently undefeated.

*IU Soccer goes down. 3-2 in OT.
In 1994, I saw the string of Championship game appearances end for varsity soccer four-year players. This weekend, the string of College Cup (Final Four) appearances for varsity soccer four-year players has also come to an end. All good things, I guess. This year's team was soclose, they were battle-tested, tough defensively and peaking at the right time. I think if IU had managed to get homefield advantage, they'd be looking to play at least one more game. A game they should've had, but another late goal (three, actually) sneaks in to once again rob IU of the victory.

At this point though, all you can do is appreciate the effort of departing seniors
Brad Ring, Chay Cain & John Mellencamp,Brian Ackley, Kevin Noschang, Billy Weaver (as well as Doug Reisinger, Nick Sutter, & anyone else?) They'll be missed, but Indiana Soccer should actually be in a little better shape next year. IU'll be more experienced, and our wunderkind freshmen, Will Bruin & Tommy Meyer will be more comfortable being go-to guys at their positions. As long as Michael Munroe can take over goalkeeping duties as well as his brother, and Freitag can snag a talented freshman or two to juice our offense just a little more, Freitag should have a title contender on his hands next season. If not, he's actually going to start be looking at a warming seat, especially with other IU Soccer former players/asst. coaches doing well at other venues: (John Trask at UIC, Caleb Porter at Akron) I don't think this should be anything weighing on Coach's mind throughout 2009, but maybe the players ought to be aware going into next season. Work hard, guys, and let this OT loss burn you a little bit. Anything short of the College Cup next year should not be considered a success.

Go Hoosiers!

Yeah, that was rough...

But still, the 83-58 loss wasn't as bad as I was worried it could be. Honestly, this score and the score from the last (2003?) trip to Wake Forest are probably reversed in my pre-game expectations. I thought we'd get sonned this time, and actually we lost by a smaller margin than Michigan State did to UNC. When I was watching IU in the Notre Dame blowout, I knew it would happen, but I still felt that burning, humiliated sensation creeping up my neck that used to make me run out and shoot for hours was I was 10 years younger. But I think I've accepted that the Hoosiers just don't have the horses this year. Crean has collected a number of players that have some talent and some will be valuable starters on decent teams in a couple of years. But all of these guys probably would be role players (at best) on the historically "very good" Indiana teams. Pritchard, Williams, & Story probably shouldn't be starters this year, but right now, they're only guys we got who can create good looks. They also create some bad turnovers, which would normally earn them a seat on the bench, but we just don't have much of one. I do want to temper fans' expectations going into the conference season: after watching the Big Ten choke away multiple opportunities (Iowa, Michigan, and most outrageously- Illinois) for their first chance to win the ACC challenge, you gotta see that the bottom of the Big Ten still has a lot more talent than the Hoosiers. I said before the season that the Hoosiers have a max of three conference wins, and I stand by that. But I truly believe the most likely Big 10 scenario for IU is 1-17. And this weekend's match with Gonzaga will be rough to watch as well. But, I do like these guys, and I like what Crean is doing. Just keep working hard, Hoosiers: It'll pay off.

Hoosier Scoop alerted me to the fact that one can watch the live video of the St. John's-Indiana game from the SJU soccer page.
Go Hoosiers!

Hoosier Weekend Wins & the Big 10/ACC challenge

It's a good thing I have the recent memory of the Hoosiers playing their best game in the Crean to beat Cornell going into tonight. I know, Cornell didn't have it's starting backcourt, but I was amazed at the way Pritchard took the ball at the 7-footer, Jeff Foote. Our wings did step up for the win, and Nick Williams was impressive, but I hate the way he turns over the ball. Williams is going to be a solid player for the Hoosiers for some time to come, but as long as Tom Pritchard keeps working like he has inside, Williams won't be the best player in this freshman class.
We'll see how Pritchard fares against the very tall and tough line-up of Wake Forest tonight. Indiana really got hosed on this one, but I guess they set up the match-up before everyone transferred out. I think our baseline of expectation should be similar to when the Hoosiers last traipsed over to Wake Forest in the Challenge and got thumped something like 100-65. I suspect we'll give up a 100 points, but I'm hoping we can score around 65. That's right, I am hoping that we lose by less than forty points tonight.

In other challenge notes, the Big Ten let an amazing opportunity slip away to maybe steal their first challenge when Iowa missed the front of a 1-and-1 with a second left to lose by two, and Illinois then also down two, didn't get a shot off with plenty of time remaining. But the Big Ten also caught something of break when senior Jack McClinton of Miami lost his mind and slapped a Buckeye freshman, and got ejected. OSU rallied for a big road win. Wisconsin started off the challenge winning for the first time in I-don't-know-when, usually Bo Ryan's teams play terribly in this contest, and Duke smacked Purdue down hard. Interior depth and offensive rebounding are now major concerns for the Boilermakers. If MSU was playing decent at all, (and they might be if Suton was healthy), they'd be by far my favorites for the conference title. But with all of this, the Big 10 could be up 5-1 and only needing a single win to pull off the challenge upset for the first time ever. Instead it's 3-3 and the only chances for victory over the ACC tonight are Michigan State at home against the UNC squad that has so far looked absolutely invulnerable, and Northwestern at home over Florida State. I would be shocked if Penn State was able to bump off Georgia Tech at home- they'd have to win the turnover & three-point shooting battles by a lot to offset GT's interior advantage- and Michigan winning at Maryland seems like a stretch, but it seems like that (plus NU & MSU victories) may be the best path of ending the ACC's dominance in the challenge. We all know IU's not in a position for even a moral victory- hopefully they get back to Bloomington without any injuries. Really, the Big Ten getting a single win tonight seems the most likely scenario.

IU Men's Soccer is only one game away from the Final Four! Unfortunately, that game will be at St. John's. I watched second half of the game against Michigan (who honestly looks better statistically than St. John's) in which IU was defensively sound and definitely the better team, but the Wolverines were actually a bounce here, and a shot off of the post there- to having a lead late in the game. Things finally broke the Hoosiers' way and as Michigan started pressing, the Hoosiers ran effective counter-attacks and walked off with a 3-0 win. Generally, I've been less-than-great at predicting soccer matches, but I like IU's chances, even on the road. I think the Hoosiers will out-shoot and out-possess St. John's, and as St. John's keeper doesn't seem to be any more gifted than Chay Cain at making saves, I'm betting the Hoosier offense strikes in the first half. I wouldn't bet that the Hoosiers do as well in the second half as they did against Michigan, so I'm thinking St. John's rallies at home to send it to OT, but here's where the Hoosier depth and new-found ability to counter-attack should pay off. IU 2-1 over St. John's in OT.
The only caveat I have is that these Hoosiers have stayed out of red card trouble so far this year, and usually there's at least one that IU gets hit with per season that just seems undeserved. If it happens at St. John's, that's a mighty hard obstacle to overcome.

Good day for Indiana fans

What? Indiana gets *killed* by St. Joseph's (most likely a NIT -or even a CBI- team) after getting really walloped by Notre Dame, and it's a good day for Indiana? Indiana's future and reputation might be able to live through the 1990's Knight-Mike Davis-Kelvin Sampson 10 year debacle and recover. IU's future is now (relatively) clear for improvements minus the baggage of the recent past.

The NCAA sanctions came down, and they came down on Sampson & Senderoff, and just gave IU three years of probation with no additional scholarship limits or postseason bans. This gives Crean a (nearly) free hand in recruiting after he's already landed a solid group this fall. Just a good blue-chipper or two in the next couple of years and the Hoosiers could be back in the National Elite in three years. I still think that the NIT is a good goal for next season.*

Also, IU Men's Soccer beat SLU 2-0 last night! IU needed to generate multiple goals and did. If they can do the same to Michigan on Saturday, then the Hoosiers will be playing (probably St. John's) for another Final Four berth. Michigan & the Hoosiers swapped 1-0 victories this season.
The teams are ranked similarly, while Michigan has a better goals/goals allowed average, the Hoosiers have record a better shots, corner kicks, and saves differential and possess a slightly better RPI. After a season of seeing the Hoosiers dominate on shots but coming up short on goals, it was strange to see IU upend Michigan in the conference tourney by being winning despite being outshot. However, this may have been due to IU getting a goal 8 minutes into a game played in lousy conditions, and just sitting on the lead. In any case, this Hoosier fan hopes that the IU soccer team's hard work and talent pays off now.

*Addendum: I don't think next year's class of recruits will be like Purdue's- Robbie Hummel was criminally underrated in the rankings- behind classmates Moore, Johnson & Martin and concurrent generally with IU's Brandon McGee. it's possible but unlikely we have that sort of diamond in the rough. Moore & Johnson were fine recruits but a couple of things made PU's season last year besides the freshmen and it was 1) the improvement of Kramer & considerable improvement of Keaton Grant and 2) the late snag of top-rated juco center Nemanja Calasan, the banger and back-the-basket guy the Boilers' needed. Pritchard and maybe Dumes, Story, and/or Jones will be solid pieces next season, but I think we either need Jones & Pritchard to take a quantum leaps forward or one of our recruits needs to fall into that "criminally-under-rated" category to make a leap to Big ten title contention in that first year. Just not likely.

Fears realized

Indiana Soccer was unable to generate multiple goals in its second-round match-up with Bradley, tied 1-1 in regulation, and was then eliminated on PKs, 5-4. This Hoosier Soccer club just reminds me so much of the 1993 squad, which was also solid defensively and had future Players of the Year Brian Maisonneuve and Todd Yeagley, but just couldn't seem to put the ball in the back of the net. They lost both the Big Ten championship game and the first game they played in the NCAA tourney (against Wisconsin I believe). On the upside, the 1994 Hoosiers went all the way to Championship game before narrowly falling to Virginia, 1-0. Hopefully, next year's soccer players will be playing in the Championship game as well. They'll lose a couple of starting defenders in Charley Traylor and Greg Stevning, as well as their back-up goalkeeper Chris Munroe, but otherwise these Hoosiers return intact. These Hoosiers have the depth to plug those gaps. The one guy to watch whether he goes pro early or not is back Ofori Sarkodie. I don't think he will, but if he does, then the Hoosiers' defense will be significantly weakened.

ACC wins the "challenge" again.
Granted, my hopes weren't the highest for great results this season, but I still am waiting to see the Big Ten win one of these things. On the upside, my predictions ran pretty decently, posting a final score 9 correct and only 2 wrong. On the downside, both of my wrong predictions were about the Big Ten winning, as Iowa and Michigan both looked weaker than even I thought they'd be.

Indiana goes to scary Southern Illinois on Saturday night. They're coming off a bad loss to Southern Cal., and while they aren't as big as Georgia Tech, they're every bit as quick and certainly seem tougher. Also, SIU is good at getting steals and shutting down foes' 3-pt. shooting, so we need Bassett, Gordon, and Ellis to control the ball without coughing it up. Gordon turned it over 8 times against GT, and I'll bet he's been hearing about that in practice.
If I were coach Sampson, I'd run a couple of plays designed to get Lance Stemler open looks early to boost his confidence, and then I'd pound the ball into DJ in the first half. To open the second half I'd look to get Jamarcus Ellis involved right away, 'cause once he scores he seems to challenge his opponent a lot, and that's only to the good for IU. I'd probably give Mike White a lot of time in this one, too, as he's got a good combo of size and speed to match up with SIU forwards.

Big Ten-ACC Preview, weekend results

I was wary of the Musketeers and for good reason. XU spanked IU 80-65. They were vulnerable inside (DJ went for 16 points & 10 rebounds), but from what little I've been able to see of the Hoosiers this season, they're working outside-in instead of inside-out. You're going to have nights where the threes don't fall (and boy, going 1 -for-15 is one of those nights) and you have to find other ways to win. The Hoosiers won 21 games last season riding DJ White. Eric Gordon is awesome, but you have to find ways to have a chance to win every game if you want to be a championship squad. It's not that Indiana should subdue Gordon's game, it's that Indiana should work on using the talent it has in the paint early on to get opponents into foul trouble. Having a twosome like DJ White and DeAndre Thomas is a rare thing, and it'd take a very unusual team (last year's Florida squad maybe?) to play them straight up.

Sure, you can just rely on one of your players being awesome, but it's just a lot better to move the ball around and get open perimeter shots when foes are having to double down into the paint. I think you better quality looks at the three, and it gives you better chances for dribble penetration and backdoors once a couple of those threes fall. Also, fouling out your foes is an excellent strategy, as it forces your opponents having to throw unusual combinations of players on the floor, who aren't used to playing with each other. I hope this loss will enable Sampson to get his players to realize that it's a team game, and a strategic game, too. I'm sure Sampson will also concentrate on the number of offensive rebounds given up (overall rebounding was pretty even, but Xavier missed fewer shots and still got more offensive boards), and the need not have let-downs, etc.

Big Ten-ACC Challenge starts tonight!
This year ought to be interesting. I still think the ACC probably wins it, although I'd project a narrow 6-5 victory. The seeding is all screwed up, tho. UNC plays middle-of-the-pack Ohio State and likely NIT squad Georgia Tech visits front-running Indiana?

Tonight:
Wake Forest(3-0) at Iowa (4-2)
I'll go with the home team on this match-up of cellar-dwellers. No disrespect to Wake, but I see them as last place in the ACC, and I just can't imagine they'll be able to outlast Iowa in Carver-Hawkeye Arena.

Tuesday:
Georgia Tech (3-2) at Indiana (4-1)
Mismatch? Oh yeah. GT's cause isn't helped by the fact that IU's coming off a loss.

Northwestern (1-3) at Virginia (5-1)
This one's gonna be ugly. NU still doesn't have a D-I win, and the Cavs will make sure that continues.

Minnesota (3-1) at Florida State (5-2)
This one is hard to handicap, as Minnesota has a solid road win already over Iowa State and FSU has fallen to Cleveland State and South Florida, but just hammered Florida. I'm defaulting (barely) to the home team, but this is one to watch!

Wisconsin (5-0) at Duke (6-0)
Is Duke ever going to play a road game in the Challenge? I still am not on the Duke bandwagon, even after they beat Marquette, but Wisconsin usually disappoints against the ACC.

Purdue (3-0) at Clemson (6-0)
That 3-0 record of the Boilermakers might fool you into thinking that Purdue is actually an okay squad. The three wins were all home games against inferior competition, and Purdue barely got by Lipscomb (66-62). Clemson is a good team that has a shot at the Sweet 16. The result is not in doubt here. Clemson by a lot.

Wednesday
NCSU (4-1) at Michigan State (4-1)
This should be a solid game, but the Spartans are a good team (if not great, just yet) and are at home. The call goes for the Green.

Boston College (4-0) at Michigan (3-3)
Although BC just got a nice win against Rhode Island, I still don't think the under-sized Eagles are strong enough to go into Michigan and pull out the road win. Michigan is not going to be one of the better teams in the Big 10, but they'll do okay at home.

Illinois (4-1) at Maryland (4-2)
This is the second game where the Big Ten might reverse its fate and finally claim a challenge. The Illini have a much better chance at the NCAA tourney than Maryland, but right now the Terrapins are playing well, & they'll be at home. Fear the Turtle.

Virginia Tech (2-2) at Penn State (2-3)
This is another very tough to call. Again, I default to the home team, but this is where the ACC could make up for an earlier surprise loss by FSU or Maryland. Penn State has more talent than last year, but still has not been able to put together a good win. VT is in full rebuilding mode, but Vassallo and Washington are dangerous.

North Carolina (5-0) at Ohio State (4-1)
Sure, I'd love to see the Buckeyes spring the home upset over UNC, but the Tarheels are an elite team. OSU is not, and the freshmen are still learning. UNC, and the ACC, for the W.

Not a great weekend for Hoosier fans:
The Women's soccer team lost at home to Duke, 2-0. The Hoosiers had their chances, but the Blue Devils go on. However, it was a great year for the Women's Soccer team, and with only one starter lost to graduation, next year could be even better.

The Men's soccer team (13-4-4) faces Bradley (15-5-3) at Bill Armstrong Stadium on Wednesday. I think the IU probably takes this one, but they really need to start scoring multiple goals or the season's over.

Go Hoosiers!

Thanksgiving weekend: Thoughts and Previews

IU Men's Basketball:
The Hoosiers face Illinois State tonight, and while the Hoosiers are the more talented team, they can't overlook the Redbirds. ISU is a club on the way up, and handled UNC-Wilmington easily enough on their homecourt, and are playing close to home. They probably won't crack the top 4 in the MVC, but they've got an outside shot at qualifying for the NIT. Illinois State ranks 2nd right now in Basketball State's own rankings, and #34 in the early RPI. That said, computer rankings don't mean very much until mid-December, at least. But this should be a much better test of the Men's team.
Speaking of which, looking over the schedule, either Xavier or Kent State is probably going to supply the Hoosiers with their third-toughest non-conference game. At Southern Illinois (12/1) is nearly a guaranteed loss, while hosting Connecticut (1/26) should be the next toughest (non-Big 10) team we'll play. Kentucky and Georgia Tech are not the teams they were last season, even if they do manage to claw their way into the Big Dance. All that is just saying, Indiana's got a pretty easy schedule this year, but Xavier and Kent State are both capable of handing the Hoosiers their first loss.

IU Soccer
You can watch the men & women's games this weekend online! That is, if you're like me & several hundred miles from Bill Armstrong stadium. Were I in B-ton this weekend, I'd be freezing my posterior off this Sunday, sitting in the stands to support the IU Women's Soccer team remarkable NCAA run. They're just two wins away from a Final Four appearance, and hosting Duke at 2pm. Support 'em if you are around!

IU women's basketball
The Hoosiers suffered their first loss, 55-53 to Wake Forest. This despite 9 steals by IU guard Kim Roberson. Last season's leading scorer (Nikki Smith) shot 0-7, tho. Neither side shot very well, but it's always hard to look at a two-point game and then look at a 56% shooting line (9-16) on free-throws. The women's team has a decent core of veterans, but doesn't seem very tall (only one rotation player taller than 6'0") and despite a 3-1 record, doesn't seem to shoot very well (40% Fgs, 28% 3pt.FGs, 63% FTs). If they hope to improve on last season's 19-14 record and make a run for the NCAA tourney, they need to get the team's shooting fixed.

Elsewhere in Big Ten & College Basketball

I've watched a bit of Penn State's playing now, and I'm not sure what Ed DeChellis can do. Certainly getting talented newcomers Stanley Pringle and Talor Battle to run the offense more and shoot less (combined 5-24 FGs in loss to South Carolina) would be the first priority, and get the team to cut on turnovers (20 in same loss). But Penn State seems more impressive than last year's club, looking much more able to rebound and defend the perimeter. But they still can't seem to beat clubs they should be beating. South Carolina might have a shot at the NIT, but they also seem fairly likely to finish 11th or 12th in the SEC. Rider should win the MAAC, but should be 15th seed, at best. If the Nittany Lions can't finish South Carolina or Rider on a Neutral court, how are they going to win any road games in the Big Ten? Maybe it's just early season struggles, and DeChellis will find a way to get Battle & Pringle playing while creating shots for the shooters (Morrissey, Walker, and Claxton) instead of the themselves. Also, maybe some can give Brandon Hassell a tip about post defense, 'cause I'm not sure he knows what it is.

I've been able to watch a bit of college ball, and I was totally unsurprised by Western Michigan's win over Davidson, Rider beating PSU and giving NCSU a scare, Western Kentucky's nearly upsetting Gonzaga, Central Florida's strong challenge of Villanova, and George Mason's beating of Kansas State. All of these "underdog" teams I projected in the NCAA tourney, and Central Florida I predicted would be in the NIT (along with Villanova) at season's end. Today, watch if George Mason doesn't take down Villanova in another "upset."

Men's Hoops!

So, IU wins by 24, didn't shoot as well on threes ("only" 43% for the game) and Gordon gets big highlight reels. As for my other predictions, the surprisingly close halftime score? Not so much. Gordon is so good, that he's just bailing IU out as he can score pretty much whenever he wants. The other teams get that look that JJ Redick's foes used to get in their eyes where all of their fear and attention is concentrated on that one scorer, and then Indiana is able to move the ball around for DJ or DeAndre to get easy twos or Bassett and Crawford get easy threes.

Indiana's points per possession remained basically the same, although the defense continues to improve.
1.27 ppp/0.86 oppp= +0.41

Again, the competition is less than stellar, so this weekend's games with Illinois State (who beat UNC-W by 17) and then Kent State or Xavier (both should be NCAA tourney teams) should make the Hoosiers have to react a little more strategically than just waiting for Eric Gordon to be awesome.

I've signed up for Basketball State, which isn't going to be really cool until some solid data comes in, but it is a pretty amazing site. But what else would you expect from Kyle Whelliston? I'm hoping that the $20 subscription proves worth it so I can stop all of my "home-cooking" of stats.

I watched Michigan State-UCLA, and it was pretty much a display of two different teams in two different halves for the Spartans. I've watched UCLA in a couple of games now, and they are a legit #1 and Kevin Love is a legit lottery pick next spring. But they were playing without Darren Collison, and they were already weak in the backcourt after Michael Roll's injury. MSU definitely should've beat them, if they were a legit Final Four team. But I think they still could be, if Izzo's freshmen improve a little.

When the freshmen were confident and loose, they made MSU's offense look normal. You spread the floor with a shooter, allow your big men to screen and hit the glass, and if the shot clock's low, you give the ball to a wing and allow him to penetrate. MSU's frosh guards were able to do that as long as UCLA was behind. When UCLA made a strong push in the second half, MSU got nervous and went back to old habits of running Nietzel into the ground. Drew had to launch long threes with men in his face, or they had to wait for UCLA to slip up defensively so they could get a backdoor play. And UCLA isn't going to let that keep happening. MSU's best clutch offense seemed to be springing Drew Naymick for baseline jumpers. Don't get me wrong, Naymick's a good player with a nice jumper, but that's not an offense that's going to make defenses scared or react. Getting Durrell Summers or Chris Allen slashing to the bucket might.

Also watched a bit of Duke taking apart Illinois. The Illini look like they don't have any idea what they want to do on offense. It's hard to believe that Bruce Weber coached one of the most dynamic offenses ever just a few years ago. Duke took away Shaun Pruitt, and Alexander & Meachem couldn't hit threes, and that was it. Duke is not a top-ten team, but Illinois made them look pretty good. The one bright spot was that Brian Randle looked pretty good with his back to the basket

Elsewhere in the Big Ten, Northwestern finally got win, but it was over D-II Benedictine (it's gonna be a rough year in Evanston). Purdue barely squeaked by Lipscomb in West Lafayette. Perhaps projecting PU in the NIT was generous. Iowa moved to 4-0 with a win over Maryland-Eastern Shore. And while the Hawkeyes have done well to win without Tony Freeman (out with an injury), the competition's been pretty weak. The upcoming game at Bradley should provide a little clarity on their quality. Minnesota picked up probably the win of the night, beating Iowa State on the road. Of the new coaches, Tubby Smith has the best fit in personnel to succeed, I think.

C'mon coach!

Evidently Sampson called UNC-Wilmington a "really good team."

I hope this is just positioning so that the players don't take a night off. Yeah, the Seahawks return 4 starters, and got a season-opening win against Charleston, but this is not a good team. Coming off a 7-22 season, my projection for the Seahwaks was mediocre at best (I have a really hard time seeing them finish higher than 7th in the CAA), and I stand by it. Todd Hendley (last seen by IU fans in Assembly Hall adding insult to injury in Wake Forest's 100-67 blowout of the hosting Hoosiers) has nice range for a 6-9 forward, and center Vladimir Kuljanin is a beast on the boards, but they had a bad defense last season and worse offense, and most RPI rankings had them in the 200's. I bet that their offense does improve a little this year, but I have a hard time seeing the interior defense improving much, and a bad turnover situation will keep them from moving too far up the rankings. This team is not anywhere in the same stratum as IU. Against similar competition, IU has a + 0.46 differential in points per possession while UNC-W has a -0.018. The Hoosiers should win by 20.

What I see happening tonight is that the threes probably don't fall as easily for IU (the Seahawks were actually okay at perimeter defense last season) leading to a reasonably close half-time score. But Sampson will use this opportunity to utilize his bigs, and DJ White and DeAndre Thomas will punish UNC-W in the paint. Jamarcus Ellis and Eric Gordon probably also take it to the hoop, and don't be surprised to see Lance Stemler and/or Brandon McGee get some good PT for a defensive match-up with Hendley.

Looks like the NCAA tournament Men's Soccer selection committee uses the RPI pretty closely, as the Hoosiers grabbed a #1 seed despite losing the conference championship. Usually that spells a #2, even for elite teams, and I'm not sure IU soccer is elite this year. Certainly the defense is, but the pub I've seen lately calling the offense "diverse" is just a really generous way of saying that the Hoosiers don't have a proven goal scorer. Kevin Noschang probably has the most talent and ability to get free, but doesn't seem to have a consistency in finishing. Brad Ring has a Scott Merritt-like nose for scrapping and making things happen around the goal, but he'd have a lot more assists if someone had the booming foot of Harry Weiss or the smooth skill of Aleksey Korol. In any case, Indiana needs to ride its defense and this bracket windfall to the Final Four.

In the tourney, a possible rematch with Ohio State looms, but I bet UCSB is the team IU will face in the Elite 8. The team I'm most worried about in all of this is IU. They need someone on the team to get on a hot-scoring streak, 'cause its hard to see anyone getting more than one goal on them in regulation, but its not hard to see the Hoosiers coming up empty in front of opponents' goals.

One the other side of the bracket, I'm hoping to see a Northwestern-UIC match-up in the second round, and not just because I've been a student at both. My first soccer coach, John Trask, got the Flames to the postseason, and Northwestern is part of what I'm pretty sure is a Big Ten conference record of 4 NCAA tourney teams (IU, NU, OSU, and Michigan State).